WPAC: KONG-Rey - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[Tireman4]

https://www.golfchannel.com/article/ran ... ers-100518

[TorSkk]

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 20:50 UTC, 5 October 2018

<Analysis at 20 UTC, 5 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N33°20' (33.3°)
E127°00' (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area E 300 km (160 NM)
W 220 km (120 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 560 km (300 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING
NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 169 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUSAN, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 31 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH TS 30W HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 060600Z HIMAWARI
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED
ON A 060453Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 55 KNOTS AND HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM RJTD AND
T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 30W IS
EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30 TO 35 KNOTS) WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. A 060000Z AMSU TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CROSS SECTION SHOWS
THAT TS 30W REMAINS A WARM-CORE SYSTEM. TS 30W IS TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST.
AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS ALSO HELPING TO ACCELERATE TS 30W TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ROUNDS THE
STR. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. THE HWRF
MODEL RUN ON THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY PHASE SPACE PAGE INDICATES
THAT TS 30W IS AN ASYMMETRIC WARM-CORE SYSTEM AND IS TRANSITIONING
TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY TRACK TO
THE NORTHEAST AND COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 24.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[NotoSans]

JMA best track for Kong-rey is out. Peak intensity revised to 900HPA/115KT, corresponding to a CI7.5.

[TyphoonNara]

JMA best track for Kong-rey is out. Peak intensity revised to 900HPA/115KT, corresponding to a CI7.5.

Well, hopefully the JTWC will follow suit and revise Kong-rey's peak to at least 155kt.

[Highteeld]

JMA best track for Kong-rey is out. Peak intensity revised to 900HPA/115KT, corresponding to a CI7.5.

Well, hopefully the JTWC will follow suit and revise Kong-rey's peak to at least 155kt.

Buffed to 150 knots.

WP, 30, 2018100118, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1336E, 150, 906

[mrbagyo]

It's nice that they bumped it to 150 but it still looks a little low for Kong Rey