ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1048596177573351425

[wxman57]

No question that there has been some weak rotation in the western Caribbean over the past day or to. However, to be upgraded to a depression it would have to have organized convection around a well-defined center. That won't likely happen until Monday when it moves out of the Caribbean.

[GCANE]

TROPICAL-CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT

[Aric Dunn]

Here we go.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1048596177573351425

yeppers.

convection on the increase ..

well defined center wont take long. another 12 hours or so.

[GCANE]

Checking AMSU Sounders, middle-level warm core just to the east of the swirl.
Anti-cyclone SW of the swirl.
Daytime land heating building cumulus clouds over the Yucatan.
Likely will fire popups later this afternoon and moisten mid and lower layers.
Could all come together tonight or around DMAX Sunday Dawn.

[Aric Dunn]

2pm chances will probably be 90 to 100 percent..

[galaxy401]

Any possibility that the center will continue to move west and move over the Yucatan?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

JMO, I think a 65 knot peak is a reasonable guess. Kind of reminds me of Nate last year. I think the 939mb the UKMET is showing is a little ridiculous though.

[cycloneye]

Read the Saturdays TCPOD at the Recon Thread that has plenty of activity for the squadron starting on Sunday including Gonzo on Monday.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120021&p=2718027#p2718027

[floridasun78]

is 97e going get mix with 97l make 91l good size storm?

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Satellite data, surface observations, and radar data from Belize
indicate that an area of low pressure is centered over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea east of northern Belize. The associated
showers and thunderstorms show signs of organization and the wind
circulation is gradually becoming better defined. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for further
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Sunday or Monday while the system moves slowly northward.
Interests in the Yucatan peninsula, western Cuba, and the northern
coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system during the next several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains
to portions of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western
Cuba into next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[psyclone]

Our marine forecast for west central florida is already depicting a sassy sea state as the system passes by (Englewood to Tarpon Springs)

Wednesday
South winds around 20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 16 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Numerous thunderstorms.

[Nimbus]

is 97e going get mix with 97l make 91l good size storm?

97e went inland at least temporarily.

91L has very symmetric low level circulation and is slowly overcoming shear.
GFS and HWRF solutions would have quite serious consequences for northern gulf coast.
WV imagery shows ULL over western gulf is moving aside as the moisture envelope expands northward.

[Frank P]

best its looked on the vis sat pixs is right now.. sure looks like the LLC is getting more vigorous with convection continuing to build... also appears to be finally moving a tad northward..

[Aric Dunn]

best its looked on the vis sat pixs is right now.. sure looks like the LLC is getting more vigorous with convection continuing to build... also appears to be finally moving a tad northward..

yep wont take too much longer if convection keep building like it is..

[Craters]

You just knew it had to happen:

[NDG]

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

Location: 17.8°N 86.6°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1009 mb
Radius of Circulation: 110 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[NDG]

GOH as most times doing its trick of helping with cyclogenis.

[cycloneye]

I smell a PTC at 5 PM or 11 PM.