ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Looks like the possible new LLC is moving in the general direction of the Western tip of Cuba that Aric circled above.

I'd be paying very close attention if I lived anywhere on the western Florida coast, not just the panhandle, if the coc consolidates that far east and crosses western Cuba.

True but it will feel the ridge eventually and even if it consolidates further east than the models think, one would think it will turn more NW and correct.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric- in the Tampa area , what might a new vort to the NE do to the track? What effects might that cause in The Tampa Bay Area?

right now not much. the models were showing this happening today. so just keep watching the NHC will be on top of it.

[NDG]

54 knot flight winds so far.

192230 1858N 08419W 9235 00725 //// +183 //// 181048 054 045 027 01

[cycloneye]

Winds are creeping up.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like the possible new LLC is moving in the general direction of the Western tip of Cuba that Aric circled above.

I'd be paying very close attention if I lived anywhere on the western Florida coast, not just the panhandle, if the coc consolidates that far east and crosses western Cuba.

I agree ozonepete if Recon finds the coc reforming farther east.

[EquusStorm]

Depending on track, hopefully this will at least somewhat help with the dreadful red tide issue

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like the possible new LLC is moving in the general direction of the Western tip of Cuba that Aric circled above.

I'd be paying very close attention if I lived anywhere on the western Florida coast, not just the panhandle, if the coc consolidates that far east and crosses western Cuba.

I agree ozpnepete if Recon finds the coc reforming farther east.

yeah if ti crosses western cuba and does not swing back nw per the models do to the organization phase then yeah expect and east shift.

[NDG]

Recon finds a new LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finds a new LLC.

yep, thats even farther east. and winds are higher. that should rotate to the nw.

[NDG]

Looks like the possible new LLC is moving in the general direction of the Western tip of Cuba that Aric circled above.

I'd be paying very close attention if I lived anywhere on the western Florida coast, not just the panhandle, if the coc consolidates that far east and crosses western Cuba.

True but it will feel the ridge eventually and even if it consolidates further east than the models think, one would think it will turn more NW and correct.

You are correct gatorcane, this reformation further east not a surprise, GFS has been showing it since yesterday and it will start feeling the east coast ridge tomorrow, it cannot get that close to the west coast of FL, at least over the next couple of days.

[Frank2]

Looking at the colorized IR the past 2 hours the entire cloud mass is on a more ENE movement, typical for October. Of course NHC will need to see if this new center is also a new track, or an increase in shear. Last evening 50 kts of shear was measured by satellite in this area...

[cycloneye]

MIchael is stronger. I say 45 kts at 5 PM.

[northjaxpro]

Recon finds a new LLC.

Yeah, just saw that report NDG.That potentially is not good news for the west coast of Florida. They are definitely in play.

[Nimbus]

Recon found the second vort further east there are likely 60 knot winds further east, the surface pressure is near 1000 MB's.

[ColdMiser123]

MIchael is stronger. I say 45 kts at 5 PM.

Definitely agree. Many 45 KT SFMR readings, and even many unflagged 50 KT readings. Peak FL wind of 56 KT.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon finds a new LLC.

Yeah, just saw that report NDG.That potentially is not good news for the west coast of Florida. They are definitely in play.

assuming to does not rotate back to the NW per the models. since its still interacting with the other vorts. Euro modeled very well thus from the 12z.

[KUEFC]

Recon finds a new LLC.

Yeah, just saw that report NDG.That potentially is not good news for the west coast of Florida. They are definitely in play.

So where about will come in to play now?

[Nimbus]

Recon finds a new LLC.

Yeah, just saw that report NDG. Not good news for the west coast of Florida. They are definitely in play.

Not yet officially but a stronger storm could create a surge problem in Tampa bay if there is a track change. Some of the earlier ensemble runs had a major making landfall near Tampa but I think the cone has moved west?

[Aric Dunn]

MIchael is stronger. I say 45 kts at 5 PM.

Definitely agree. Many 45 KT SFMR readings, and even many unflagged 50 KT readings. Peak FL wind of 56 KT.

there are also probably stronger winds to the NE of that new circ they just passed by. easily could be 60mph.

[gatorcane]

Recon finds a new LLC.

Yeah, just saw that report NDG.That potentially is not good news for the west coast of Florida. They are definitely in play.

assuming to does not rotate back to the NW per the models. since its still interacting with the other vorts. Euro modeled very well thus from the 12z.

Euro went with the west LLC. But looks like the LLC is further east. So what the Euro have done had it gone with the east LLC as far as landfall, shift east?