ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KUEFC]

Yeah, just saw that report NDG.That potentially is not good news for the west coast of Florida. They are definitely in play.

assuming to does not rotate back to the NW per the models. since its still interacting with the other vorts. Euro modeled very well thus from the 12z.

Euro went with the west LLC. But looks like the LLC is further east. So what this means for track will be interesting.

What would be your gut feeling gator?, seen you mention it feeling the ridge etc, so not quite sure what all this means

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah, just saw that report NDG.That potentially is not good news for the west coast of Florida. They are definitely in play.

assuming to does not rotate back to the NW per the models. since its still interacting with the other vorts. Euro modeled very well thus from the 12z.

Euro went with the west LLC. But looks like the LLC is further east. So what the Euro have done had it gone with the east LLC?

yeah these kinds of dynamics are always interesting to watch.

[Evil Jeremy]

Recon finds a new LLC.

Yeah, just saw that report NDG.That potentially is not good news for the west coast of Florida. They are definitely in play.

So where about will come in to play now?

There doesn't need to be goalposts on what is 'in play'. Everyone in the cone should keep an eye on it at all times. And if you're just outside the cone, keep an eye on it.

[cycloneye]

Instead of going to the first LLC,is going to the other one.

[NDG]

For the 100th time, the GFS showed this reformation further east several times, this is no surprising, as the system starts moving out of the Caribbean it will start feeling the east coast ridge and a more NNW track will resume. But, the slower it moves like the Euro has been showing the more chance it will give the ridge to move out of the way and the more eastward track it could take towards the Big Bend area vs the western Panhandle area like the faster time-wise FV3-GFS shows.

[Aric Dunn]

Instead of going to the first LLC,is going to the other one.

https://i.imgur.com/RI2ZEG7.png

yeah thats odd. maybe the one they just flew by was still developing and the one they are heading to is old now lol..

[NDG]

Instead of going to the first LLC,is going to the other one.

https://i.imgur.com/RI2ZEG7.png

They must have noticed the new one forming on their radar because they didn't even get to the NE quadrant of the old circulation.

[NDG]

Fix on the new LLC.

194830 1914N 08533W 9245 00689 9997 +230 +216 000009 010 018 002 03

[ScottNAtlanta]

Yep looks like a new center at 1000mb

[cycloneye]

There it is.

[Aric Dunn]

maybe they are checking to see if the old vort is still there lol .. they hopefully will go to the NE quad. probably higher winds.

they also the question of the other circ to the east of the one they just flew through.. lol

[chaser1]

Looks like the possible new LLC is moving in the general direction of the Western tip of Cuba that Aric circled above.

I'd be paying very close attention if I lived anywhere on the western Florida coast, not just the panhandle, if the coc consolidates that far east and crosses western Cuba.

True but it will feel the ridge eventually and even if it consolidates further east than the models think, one would think it will turn more NW and correct.

Fully agree, though not as confident that a short term N.W. track will occur. IMO, I think the better developed MLC will tend to draw closer to North once a better defined COC becomes vertically aligned. I think that if that had happened yesterday or much earlier today, a short term NNW might have occurred. The delay in development and organization might suggest a more northward motion from the onset. Anyway, that's just my guess at the moment

[cycloneye]

maybe they are checking to see if the old vort is still there lol .. they hopefully will go to the NE quad. probably higher winds.

they also the question of the other circ to the east of the one they just flew through.. lol

And lower pressure.

[KWT]

Quite clear the new center that has been located is going to become the dominant circulation. Clearly above 35kts as well...

[Evil Jeremy]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the new center fix is about a full degree farther East than forecast at any point through 72 hours by the NHC in the 11am advisory.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1049024474429804544

[Aric Dunn]

the developing circ east of what they just flew through is carrying a lot of momentum. I sure hope they turn around and fly through it..

winds are probably 65 to 70 around that feature.

[NDG]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the new center fix is about a full degree farther East than forecast at any point through 72 hours by the NHC in the 11am advisory.

Forget about the forecast track in the short term, the GFS showed this reformation very well yet the final track is still about the same.

[cycloneye]

[Abdullah]

Why aren't there any dropsondes on this airplane?

the developing circ east of what they just flew through is carrying a lot of momentum. I sure hope they turn around and fly through it..

winds are probably 65 to 70 around that feature.

Which one?