ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

the developing circ east of what they just flew through is carrying a lot of momentum. I sure hope they turn around and fly through it..

winds are probably 65 to 70 around that feature.

Like I mentioned earlier, if tomorrow morning we wake up to Michael almost a hurricane if not one already it will give a lot of credibility to the global models and the NHC should take that into consideration.

[Aric Dunn]

the developing circ east of what they just flew through is carrying a lot of momentum. I sure hope they turn around and fly through it..

winds are probably 65 to 70 around that feature.

Like I mentioned earlier, if tomorrow morning we wake up to Michael almost a hurricane if not one already it will give a lot of credibility to the global models and the NHC should take that into consideration.

yeah, the models have been doing well since yesterdays 12z.

some slight shift to east is possible still. but Tampa north is the extreme. at least right now.

[NDG]

Well, not much if any of the old circulation left with pressure a good 4 mb higher in this area.

[Aric Dunn]

THe circ they just flew through is already beginning to rotate wsw as the new one in the deep convection deepens.

[EquusStorm]

Did not expect to be seeing these sort of numbers quite this early; saying that it gives me Opal-ish vibes is a bit much but it feels a bit more threatening than Nate given a slower forward speed.

[chaser1]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the new center fix is about a full degree farther East than forecast at any point through 72 hours by the NHC in the 11am advisory.

Right on Though I hadn't realized just quite how much east as you bring to light. I'd say it looks like 1 1/2 degrees east of any NHC point during the storm's first 72 hr. track. On another note, up to now we havn't had a cohesive COC to track forward motion. That may happen soon as Michael seem's to be finally consolidating a more vertically aligned core. Until that happens though, i'm doubtful that we'll see Michael as far north as NHC's initial Monday 12 forecast point either (tomorrow 7:00 a.m. - approx. 21.8 N). I have to believe there will be some track, strength, and timing implications

[Abdullah]

Did not expect to be seeing these sort of numbers quite this early; saying that it gives me Opal-ish vibes is a bit much but it feels a bit more threatening than Nate given a slower forward speed.

Is Wilma-ish a possibility? I heard that the Sea Surface Temperatures are boiling about now.

[EquusStorm]

I kinda doubt the upper level conditions let it get too carried away in intensity. But on the west side of it up here, the expected northerly flow has helped change our forecast of near 90 through the weekend to lower 70s, so I'm not too upset about that. Screw persistent ridging

[cycloneye]

VDM of second LLC.

URNT12 KNHC 072025
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 07/19:47:10Z
B. 19.19 deg N 085.48 deg W
C. 925 mb 686 m
D. EXTRAP 999 mb
E. NA
F. NA
G. NA
H. 53 kt
I. 102 deg 62 nm 19:24:00Z
J. 209 deg 56 kt
K. 105 deg 49 nm 19:28:30Z
L. 34 kt
M. 226 deg 101 nm 20:21:30Z
N. 256 deg 32 kt
O. 226 deg 106 nm 20:23:00Z
P. 21 C / 763 m
Q. 24 C / 764 m
R. 20 C / NA
S. 1345 / 09
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF305 0114A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 56 KT 105 / 49 NM 19:28:30Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

[chaser1]

Well, not much if any of the old circulation left with pressure a good 4 mb higher in this area.

So that's it then. Data seems to confirm that the second westward vort has essentially opened up. The quickly improving west and southerly inflow towards the new dominant COC to the east, should finally result in markedly improved convergence and aid in convection to pop west of center. It may well be still fighting some upper level shear but it's overall organization should finally continue unimpeded. That would also suggest that we should begin to see a true forward motion commence during the next few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

anyone know the airforce flight callsign is?

[NDG]

I will not be surprised if the NHC will now call for a high end Cat 1 hurricane with SHIPS now calling for 80 knots at landfall and because it has strengthened more than anticipated this afternoon.
Hopefully they will point out that the global models remain stronger than that.

[cycloneye]

[BobHarlem]

I don't know what's more troubling, the 1 degree shift east or the 50 knot surface winds.

[wxman57]

I will not be surprised if the NHC will now call for a high end Cat 1 hurricane with SHIPS now calling for 80 knots at landfall and because it has strengthened more than anticipated this afternoon.
Hopefully they will point out that the global models remain stronger than that.

Given the apparent lack of much shear, I would not be surprised if it was a strong Cat 3 at landfall. I went with 100 mph winds an hour ago. Near Panama City. Could track a bit farther east, though. Apalachicola?

[ConvergenceZone]

I will not be surprised if the NHC will now call for a high end Cat 1 hurricane with SHIPS now calling for 80 knots at landfall and because it has strengthened more than anticipated this afternoon.
Hopefully they will point out that the global models remain stronger than that.

Yea, I agree. In fact, I wouldn't be A bit shocked at all if this landfalls as a Cat 2 hurricane.........

[Hurricane Andrew]

Still no real convection on west side...but once that changes, I'd expect significant intensification to follow. Here are 18z SHIPS RI #s

Code: Select all

 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   8% is   1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  21% is   2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  12% is   3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  10% is   4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold=  21% is   3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
   

[ConvergenceZone]

I will not be surprised if the NHC will now call for a high end Cat 1 hurricane with SHIPS now calling for 80 knots at landfall and because it has strengthened more than anticipated this afternoon.
Hopefully they will point out that the global models remain stronger than that.

Given the apparent lack of much shear, I would not be surprised if it was a strong Cat 3 at landfall. I went with 100 mph winds an hour ago. Near Panama City. Could track a bit farther east, though. Apalachicola?

WOW! I was thinking Cat 2... Butl, you are the Meteorologist and I"m not, lol.........So my ears definitely stand attention when I hear that.....

[toad strangler]

At least a few Wilma references and that IMO is not a very good analog as she had a HUGE eye with Cat 3 winds. Eyewall effects were over a very large area as a result. Also, Wilma was around for 11 days with multiple EWRC’s and land interaction (YP) that helped construct that huge eye. Not a good analog for this set up.... Opal is the obvious choice in my mind.

[northjaxpro]

I will not be surprised if the NHC will now call for a high end Cat 1 hurricane with SHIPS now calling for 80 knots at landfall and because it has strengthened more than anticipated this afternoon.
Hopefully they will point out that the global models remain stronger than that.

Given the apparent lack of much shear, I would not be surprised if it was a strong Cat 3 at landfall. I went with 100 mph winds an hour ago. Near Panama City. Could track a bit farther east, though. Apalachicola?

Possible wxman57. I would not rule out a Cedar Key potential landfall.