ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[ColdMiser123]

Most of the eastern tracks are slower, and thus are stronger, having more time over water. This is a result of the shifting upper level steering pattern with a weakening ridge to the northeast of Michael.

[LarryWx]

Most of the eastern tracks are slower, and thus are stronger, having more time over water. This is a result of the shifting upper level steering pattern with a weakening ridge to the northeast of Michael.

https://i.imgur.com/WkiLEX7.png

If you were to extend out through day 10, you'd see the mean track through day 10 is shifted further SE.

[BobHarlem]

18Z Early Models.

If what recon is finding is legit, shift everything east a bit.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles with some members in the Eastern Gulf and down into Central Florida till 6 days from now:

[pcbjr]

12Z Euro ensembles with some members in the Eastern Gulf and down into Central Florida till 6 days from now:

https://i.postimg.cc/1zccg3pf/ecmwf-ens_mslpa_Norm_watl_7.png

[gatorcane]

Wow a number of Euro ensembles take this north of Tampa now on an ENE track with two landfalling just north of the Tampa area. A strong system would cause some problems for Tampa with the onshore flow even if landfall was Cedar Key.

[NDG]

Not sure if it was mentioned that the 18z SHIPS now calls for Michael to be at 80 knots at landfall, up 30 knots from just 24 hrs ago so who is not to think that it will continue to go up on its intensity forecast.

[BobHarlem]

One striking thing about the Euro ensembles, look how many show major hurricane, and how east heavy those majors are:

[cjrciadt]

Imagine if it pulled that Keys Track!

[OuterBanker]

One striking thing about the Euro ensembles, look how many show major hurricane, and how east heavy those majors are:

https://i.imgur.com/TEyF2HF.jpg

Wow, been busy and away from here all day. Last night I thought Michael would ride the mountains. This Euro ensemble looks like a coast rider after hitting the panhandle. This looks like potential trouble for Fl. GA. SC. and NC. Of course that's only one run.

[blp]

One striking thing about the Euro ensembles, look how many show major hurricane, and how east heavy those majors are:

https://i.imgur.com/TEyF2HF.jpg

I was looking at that. The stronger system which this one looks like it will be is on the eastern side.

[MetroMike]

From Ben Noll Tweet
 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1049023685179240448

[DestinHurricane]

18Z GFS a tad NW and stronger at 36 hours

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS a tad NW and stronger at 36 hours

At hour 30, the 18Z GFS is at 22.5N, 86.4W vs the 12Z GFS 36 hour of 23.1N, 86.1W. So, the 18Z GFS so far is SSW of the 12Z GFS position.

Edit hour 48 nearly identical to the 12Z.

[pgoss11]

18Z GFS a tad NW and stronger at 36 hours

At hour 30, the 18Z GFS is at 22.5N, 86.4W vs the 12Z GFS 36 hour of 23.1N, 86.1W. So, the 18Z GFS so far is SSW of the 12Z GFS position.

Was this run initialized at the new center location?

[ronjon]

Really bizarre to see a full 24 hr difference in landfall between the GFS and ECM just 72 hrs out. Not sure Ive seen anything that large between our two major models before.

[NDG]

Interesting part about the 18z GFS run is that it was started further west based on the old LLC.

[LarryWx]

18Z GFS a tad NW and stronger at 36 hours

At hour 30, the 18Z GFS is at 22.5N, 86.4W vs the 12Z GFS 36 hour of 23.1N, 86.1W. So, the 18Z GFS so far is SSW of the 12Z GFS position.

Was this run initialized at the new center location?

Kind of between them at 18.9N, 85.8W.

Edit: Then it moves NNW to 19.7N, 86.1W at hour 6 or 8 PM EDT this evening. The actual 8 PM position would be very nice to know!

[cycloneye]

Interesting part about the 18z GFS run is that it was started further west based on the old LLC.

On the other hand,it began at 999 mbs and that was the pressure of the second LLC.

[MetroMike]

Interesting part about the 18z GFS run is that it was started further west based on the old LLC.

That is an important point to consider as the run comes out.
May have to discount it.