ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

I would go all the way down to Cedar Key on the watch

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Aric if your around or any other Pro's I would like your opinion,

Traveling to Tampa are on Thursday evening, heading back south to Marco Island on Friday morning. What kind of weather can I expect to be driving in.

[p1nheadlarry]

Interesting wording from NHC and quite telling for me:in the 8:00 p.m. advisory:

INCREASING THREAT TO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. (to paraphrase)

That is signaling to me that they are putting more belief in the UKMET solution. Just my rationale....

Interested at what they say at 10, with the 18z guidance a bit west of the NHC track

Which models? Most of the reliable ones have shifted East

GFS and HWRF

[p1nheadlarry]

We could very well wake up to a rapidly intensifying hurricane on this, you know.

Interested at what they say at 10, with the 18z guidance a bit west of the NHC track

The 18Z GFS run still had a bad initialization point for Michael; too far west. We need to wait for the 00Z runs.

By the way, the NorthEast Gulf of Mexico is Ocean.

I don't need to be patronized like that

[Aric Dunn]

Aric if your around or any other Pro's I would like your opinion,

Traveling to Tampa are on Thursday evening, heading back south to Marco Island on Friday morning. What kind of weather can I expect to be driving in.

rain rain and more rain ?

[MrJames]

Just took a look at the latest UKMET run.

Right front quadrant smack over JAX.

Yeah I talked about that earlier. Definitely a big concern for our area, if the trends east holds, which unfortunately looks to keep doing.

The timing of that NE turn will be critical for us.

[robbielyn]

well I imagine the timing of the watch in the panhandle from nhc will be telling if they r going for the faster gfs landfall (wed)or slower Euro and ukmet (Thurs).

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Lol Aric I figured some rain, any real wind concern.

[Aric Dunn]

Lol Aric I figured some rain, any real wind concern.

not really by thursday the center will be moving fast to the NE. maybe a tornado threat in the squall lines.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks Aric ,
Really appreciate the info.

[GCANE]

Going to be transversing the hottest water in the Atlantic

First, the West Carib current.
Then the infamous Loop current.
Finally, the hot pool off the FL Panhandle.

[OuterBanker]

How interesting.
Local NWS forecast has possible tropical storm conditions on Thursday.
Florida big bend area could possibly receive damage as bad as Florence produced in southeast North Carolina.
Damage in the billions already from Florence. Michael could equal if not exceed it. All in a year that was supposed to be well below normal.

[chaser1]

Aric if your around or any other Pro's I would like your opinion,

Traveling to Tampa are on Thursday evening, heading back south to Marco Island on Friday morning. What kind of weather can I expect to be driving in.

Could be squally with fast moving bands of shower moving on shore. Could be messy but nothing scary. Remember, by this time the hurricane should have made landfall already. There's also the chance that it'll simply be breezy with only a few training showers moving over too. Tampa's worst weather right now looks to occur Tuesday into Wednesday

[gatorcane]

Center looks a good bit east of where all the models have it (even the ECMWF) with the UKMET being the closest...looks to be barely moving:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[jaxfladude]

Just took a look at the latest UKMET run.

Right front quadrant smack over JAX.

Yeah I talked about that earlier. Definitely a big concern for our area, if the trends east holds, which unfortunately looks to keep doing.

How likely of Hurricane force winds over Jax Metro, all or western parts of NE FLA/SE GA?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Why are ppl asking for driving weather advice/what will it be like stuff?? Its going to rain and be windy with lots of power outages...oh and by the way don't drive in puddles... Duh

[Ken711]

Just took a look at the latest UKMET run.

Right front quadrant smack over JAX.

Yeah I talked about that earlier. Definitely a big concern for our area, if the trends east holds, which unfortunately looks to keep doing.

How likely of Hurricane force winds over Jax Metro, all or western parts of NE FLA/SE GA?

Certainly will probably change, but as of now.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/bnorcrossWPLG/status/1049108611358740480

[LarryWx]

Going to be transversing the hottest water in the Atlantic

First, the West Carib current.
Then the infamous Loop current.
Finally, the hot pool off the FL Panhandle.

http://i63.tinypic.com/6gj1c7.jpg

These SSTs are like 5-6F warmer than normal in the far N GOM south of the FL panhandle. This is more like the normal in early Oct way down in the W Caribbean!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks Chaser1,

much appriciated