ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

Michael is a special system. I see no reason to expect anything less than 115mph at landfall. New convective burst just in time for recon...

Either core has shifted East or the winds are not as strong in Nzw quad...

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1049256310825541632

[Shell Mound]

Michael is a special system. I see no reason to expect anything less than 115mph at landfall. New convective burst just in time for recon...

Either core has shifted East or the winds are not as strong in Nzw quad...

Based on satellite trends, the last pass on this mission will likely find 10-m winds of 75 to 80 knots and pressures in the upper 960s or low 970s (mb)...

Given ongoing, Harvey-like deepening under less-than-ideal but improving conditions, I anticipate a major hurricane by early tomorrow morning.

[DestinHurricane]

When will the watches be turned into warnings?

[BobHarlem]

When will the watches be turned into warnings?

Probably at the 5PM advisory, if not that most assuredly the 11pm.

[NDG]

I can't believe WFTV Orlando keeps showing the wrong forecast track, the one from yesterday which showed a track towards Destin. I tweeted Brian Shields about it but have not fixed it yet.

[Ivanhater]

This escalated quickly...not a sheared October tropical storm wxman?

[NDG]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1049256310825541632

You are going to see my tweet back to him in which I asked him if he will give credit to the GFS for a change for smelling the improving UL conditions & strengthening forecast way before the Euro.

[jaxfladude]

What are the possible impacts from Michael for Jacksonville, Florida area as of now as compared to just last nights better or worse?

[DestinHurricane]

What are the possible impacts from Michael for Jacksonville, Florida area as of now as compared to just last nights better or worse?

Probably better that last nights since the track has shifted west but dont let your guard down.

[NDG]

Latest recon finds its pressure holding steady.

113630 2052N 08505W 8429 01344 9828 +200 +115 163011 014 021 002 03
1

[NDG]

The coc keeps moving NNE, current fix is near 20.9N & 85.1W
Or maybe reforming around while the system gets together vertically.

[KWT]

Latest recon finds its pressure holding steady.

113630 2052N 08505W 8429 01344 9828 +200 +115 163011 014 021 002 03
1

Yeah the inner core needs to really kick into gear, once it does I expect another 20mbs quickly.

[cycloneye]

[Emmett_Brown]

Micheal's position looks to be NE of last nights final recon fix by about half a degree or so.

[PSUHiker31]

The coc keeps moving NNE, current fix is near 20.9N & 85.1W
Or maybe reforming around while the system gets together vertically.

It's done reforming when the pressure is this low. Moving more under the convection is definitely possible though

[NDG]

The coc keeps moving NNE, current fix is near 20.9N & 85.1W
Or maybe reforming around while the system gets together vertically.

It's done reforming when the pressure is this low. Moving more under the convection is definitely possible though

Probably more like realigning itself with the mid level circulation is the only thing that I can think of.

[Laser30033003]

.....or it could be that its moving NNE....

[caneman]

That is a decent shift of 4/10th of a degree. Is that about 40 miles? Downrange that could mean 100 miles east which is within margin of error. We'll see

[SouthDadeFish]

We likely won't see any further RI until Michael builds a closed eyewall. It looks like the TC is now in the restructuring phase, after the pressures fell last night. It seems the vortex tilt has decreased with the center sliding farther east, so now the TC will likely try to close off the eyewall. Once that process completes, then I think we will see a second intensification phase. It's possible recon finds hurricane-force winds in the NE quadrant of the TC during this flight though.