ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Laser30033003]

Each degree of latitude is approximately 69 miles so like 28 miles

[KWT]

May also be worth remember in Irene from 99 which formed in this area and continued east of expected track throughout...I have been saying the track will more than likely keep having to be adjusted eastwards in this type of setup.

[NDG]

Black dot is where they found the LLC on the latest pass.

[cycloneye]

We likely won't see any further RI until Michael builds a closed eyewall. It looks like the TC is now in the restructuring phase, after the pressures fell last night. It seems the vortex tilt has decreased with the center sliding farther east, so now the TC will likely try to close off the eyewall. Once that process completes, then I think we will see a second intensification phase. It's possible recon finds hurricane-force winds in the NE quadrant of the TC during this flight though.

Already and not in NE quad.

070 050 005 00

[caneman]

Am I correct in saying the motion has actually been 5 degrees NNE and not 00?

[NDG]

Strongest winds so far on the SE quadrant, I am sure they will find even stronger winds on the eastern or NE quadrant.

114830 2028N 08435W 8426 01434 9947 +164 +094 223067 070 050 005 00

[GCANE]

70 knot flight-level winds.
At 843 mb, 4700 ft.

[Laser30033003]

yes but is it true movement or just the repositioning of the center.

[caneman]

Dont know but long range that could favor a more easterly landfall like Perry. We will see

[Emmett_Brown]

It will be interesting to watch to see if Micheal actually landfalls in extreme W Cuba later today. He is getting close to that longitude, and looks like he will miss the NHC forecast point a little to the E.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like pressure went down 1 millibar as of the 8am update.

[PTPatrick]

Well this is all a troubling development. Leave the country for 3 days and a hurricane pops up. I haven’t dug thru most of the history...but it would appear some RI is in the offing. Not looking good for the panhandle. We know from Opal that things can still ramp up this time of year. I will never forget waking up to a very intense opal winking at us. That was the first time I really sensed deep anxiety in my father and we truly prepped like it might not be there when we came back. We were spared with the left hook that took out The same area this is heading.

[cycloneye]

Not closed yet.

URNT12 KNHC 081200
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 08/11:36:10Z
B. 20.87 deg N 085.11 deg W
C. 850 mb 1272 m
D. 983 mb
E. 150 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN E
G. C30
H. 54 kt
I. 314 deg 22 nm 11:29:00Z
J. 046 deg 60 kt
K. 314 deg 26 nm 11:28:00Z
L. 54 kt
M. 125 deg 29 nm 11:45:30Z
N. 222 deg 70 kt
O. 127 deg 38 nm 11:48:30Z
P. 16 C / 1531 m
Q. 21 C / 1524 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 0314A MICHAEL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 128 / 38 NM 11:48:30Z

[Evil Jeremy]

How much confidence is there that Michael will have the forecasted pull to the NNW in the next 48 hours? It’s only forecasted to be a slight tug back to the left, but as this system continues track further east (I know I’m a broken record by now, but we just did this in May with Alberto), I’m having doubts with the expected strength of the ridging to the east.

On the same note, is an unexpectedly stronger Michael going to feel that suppoused ridging more, or feel the weakness to the north more?

[Michele B]

Am I correct in saying the motion has actually been 5 degrees NNE and not 00?

I hear ya, caneman. I'm just about 50 mi SOUTH and east of you, and I'm concerned with any shift to the E...

[Hurricane Andrew]

Not closed yet.

URNT12 KNHC 081200
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 08/11:36:10Z
B. 20.87 deg N 085.11 deg W
C. 850 mb 1272 m
D. 983 mb
E. 150 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN E
G. C30
H. 54 kt
I. 314 deg 22 nm 11:29:00Z
J. 046 deg 60 kt
K. 314 deg 26 nm 11:28:00Z
L. 54 kt
M. 125 deg 29 nm 11:45:30Z
N. 222 deg 70 kt
O. 127 deg 38 nm 11:48:30Z
P. 16 C / 1531 m
Q. 21 C / 1524 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 0314A MICHAEL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 128 / 38 NM 11:48:30Z

That is describing the eyewall, yes?

[KWT]

Am I correct in saying the motion has actually been 5 degrees NNE and not 00?

I think it is likely the system stacking itself, looks like it's bang in the middle of the convection now, great place for it to strengthen. Need to see that eyewall structure really get going, that is the next step.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1049269429647945728

[NDG]

Not closed yet.

URNT12 KNHC 081200
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 08/11:36:10Z
B. 20.87 deg N 085.11 deg W
C. 850 mb 1272 m
D. 983 mb
E. 150 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN E
G. C30
H. 54 kt
I. 314 deg 22 nm 11:29:00Z
J. 046 deg 60 kt
K. 314 deg 26 nm 11:28:00Z
L. 54 kt
M. 125 deg 29 nm 11:45:30Z
N. 222 deg 70 kt
O. 127 deg 38 nm 11:48:30Z
P. 16 C / 1531 m
Q. 21 C / 1524 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 0314A MICHAEL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 128 / 38 NM 11:48:30Z

That is describing the eyewall, yes?

Correct.

[cycloneye]

Not closed yet.

URNT12 KNHC 081200
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 08/11:36:10Z
B. 20.87 deg N 085.11 deg W
C. 850 mb 1272 m
D. 983 mb
E. 150 deg 9 kt
F. OPEN E
G. C30
H. 54 kt
I. 314 deg 22 nm 11:29:00Z
J. 046 deg 60 kt
K. 314 deg 26 nm 11:28:00Z
L. 54 kt
M. 125 deg 29 nm 11:45:30Z
N. 222 deg 70 kt
O. 127 deg 38 nm 11:48:30Z
P. 16 C / 1531 m
Q. 21 C / 1524 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 0314A MICHAEL OB 07
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 128 / 38 NM 11:48:30Z

That is describing the eyewall, yes?

That is correct.