ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Michael is becoming a big system already, look at the UL divergence already setting up ahead of it over the eastern GOM, that's what's really going to make it blow up, IMO.

[GCANE]

Latest Archer.
Latest recon fix (20.87N 85.11W) puts it well east of the forecast point (shown in X's).
Pretty close to the last microwave estimated fix.

[GCANE]

Eye Character: Open in the east
Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles)

Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,531m (5,023ft)
Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)

[GCANE]

[NDG]

Recon found TS force winds up to 120 miles from the center on the SE quadrant.

[Kazmit]

Michael is becoming a big system already, look at the UL divergence already setting up ahead of it over the eastern GOM, that's what's really going to make it blow up, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/57rXD2t.jpg?1

Originally wasn't it supposed to be a more compact system? A bigger storm will make the storm surge risk greater.

[toad strangler]

The 00z Euro showed this E shift in the near term. Should resume overall NNW movement afterwards.

[cycloneye]

BREAKING NEWS: 12Z Best Track up to 65 kts

AL, 14, 2018100812, , BEST, 0, 209N, 851W, 65, 982, HU

[tolakram]

COD floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Tropical Tidbits
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=meso1&product=vis

[chaser1]

Go to sleep for a few hours and BOOM?! Michael has really undergone some radical metamorphosis overnight! Hard to imagine given the upper shear seemingly in place?!

[TheStormExpert]

Just like with most hurricanes originating form the Centeal America Gyre Michael will be decent in size. Hope everyone in its path is taking this seriously as there is only 2 days left to prepare! This could be the other big storm of the season besides Florence and a major one at that.

[NDG]

Not to keep picking on WFTV here in Orlando but they keep showing the old forecast track for landfall, I wonder if it is program problem they are having with it.
I have twitted them 2 hrs ago to let them know that is the current incorrect forecast track but they have not changed it yet.

[ronjon]

BREAKING NEWS: 12Z Best Track up to 65 kts

AL, 14, 2018100812, , BEST, 0, 209N, 851W, 65, 982, HU

Kudos to the UKMET - pretty darn accurate initialization for Michael.

[supercane4867]

Hurricane Michael

[GCANE]

Tower firing off on the western eyewall.

[sponger]

I sure hope this makes it East of Cape San Blas. Panama City could be wrecked along with the Cape if not. Big Bend will be far less damage. I have surfed Cape San Blas and it is really deep until just offshore. Actually known among surfers to be a deep water shark spot. While it would sustain heavy damage, the economic losses in PC would be considerable. I remember Opal quite well and it was extensive along the coast there. Whole houses and streets gone.

On a side note, NAM is off the rails with a 900 mb storm just prior. I suspect there will be inhibiting factors to keep this at Cat 2 but it is far too early to know.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018100806&fh=60

[tronbunny]

Not to keep picking on WFTV here in Orlando but they keep showing the old forecast track for landfall, I wonder if it is program problem they are having with it.
I have twitted them 2 hrs ago to let them know that is the current incorrect forecast track but they have not changed it yet.

https://i.imgur.com/TtQydQd.jpg

The Broadcast is likely on a loop recorded before the 5am update. things are likely to change for them after 8am, when the meterology staff has had their coffe and begin their war room coverage.

[NDG]

Not to keep picking on WFTV here in Orlando but they keep showing the old forecast track for landfall, I wonder if it is program problem they are having with it.
I have twitted them 2 hrs ago to let them know that is the current incorrect forecast track but they have not changed it yet.

https://i.imgur.com/TtQydQd.jpg

The Broadcast is likely on a loop recorded before the 5am update. things are likely to change for them after 8am, when the meterology staff has had their coffe and begin their war room coverage.

The problem is that the forecast track is from yesterday morning from the NHC.
Brian Shields is the one in the mornings and he usually does a good job on being up to date. I just think they are having a problem with their graphic program.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like recon is already heading back in for another center fix.

[TheStormExpert]

Hurricane Michael

https://i.imgur.com/p3l4PtG.jpg

Looks like all engines are a go!