ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tigerz3030]

Is it too early to tell possible impacts on Valdosta GA??

[EquusStorm]

Absolutely did not expect to wake up to this. Wow.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1049275023494660096

[sponger]

Is it too early to tell possible impacts on Valdosta GA??

Based on current track and intensity, widespread power outages and gusts to 60-70. This is a big boy and anyone East of Center will feel significant impacts. It will also be flying so no sharp drop in intensity.

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon is finding another band of 64kt flight level winds extend almost as far east as 83W, so the band on the right side of the system has some storm force wind in it.

[toad strangler]

Is it too early to tell possible impacts on Valdosta GA??

It will also be flying so no sharp drop in intensity.

This is the silver lining. Move in, move out.

[NDG]

FL Keys having a stormy squally wx this morning.

[NotoSans]

Eyewall is beginning to form as per microwave imagery and latest VDM, but a bit larger than what I expected.

[Buck]

I sure hope this makes it East of Cape San Blas. Panama City could be wrecked along with the Cape if not. Big Bend will be far less damage. I have surfed Cape San Blas and it is really deep until just offshore. Actually known among surfers to be a deep water shark spot. While it would sustain heavy damage, the economic losses in PC would be considerable. I remember Opal quite well and it was extensive along the coast there. Whole houses and streets gone.

On a side note, NAM is off the rails with a 900 mb storm just prior. I suspect there will be inhibiting factors to keep this at Cat 2 but it is far too early to know.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2018100806&fh=60

Yes, my family has been spending time in Cape San Blas each summer for nearly 20 years, even during a couple of storms (Debbie, Cindy) and just after some of hurricanes (Dennis, Arlene). Port St. Joe and Mexico Beach could really be crippled, but the further west it landfalls, the more population it will impact. It's not looking good; prayers for all in the path.

[cycloneye]

NDG,they didn't sample the NE quad because of Cuba.

[NDG]

WFTV finally changed the graphics on the forecast track.

[NDG]

NDG,they didn't sample the NE quad because of Cuba.

https://i.imgur.com/5GFm4wI.png

Let me call my connection over to let them in their airspace, lol.
But in all seriousness that is surprising, with diplomatic normalization I thought that the recons now had the permission to go into their air space.

[chaser1]

Is it too early to tell possible impacts on Valdosta GA??

Dependant on exact landfall and track, I believe hurricane force gusts would occur there.

[dl20415]

Michael now a hurricane

[SFLcane]

So far not much over mainland SFL infact HRRR shows some scattered showers throughout the day. Now that this thing is intensifying it should pull those rainbands closer to the center.

[cycloneye]

Center is open in NE.

URNT12 KNHC 081320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 08/12:58:30Z
B. 21.00 deg N 084.94 deg W
C. 850 mb 1283 m
D. 984 mb
E. 160 deg 12 kt
F. OPEN NE
G. C30
H. 53 kt
I. 099 deg 21 nm 12:52:00Z
J. 183 deg 68 kt
K. 099 deg 29 nm 12:49:30Z
L. 50 kt
M. 229 deg 30 nm 13:08:30Z
N. 298 deg 61 kt
O. 229 deg 32 nm 13:09:00Z
P. 18 C / 1529 m
Q. 22 C / 1527 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF301 0314A MICHAEL OB 14
MAX FL WIND 70 KT 128 / 38 NM 11:48:30Z

[Steve]

Weatherbell has it a Cat 3/4 just off the coast near apalachicola in their forecast. There are a lot of wildlife management areas and state and national forests in that region and a few less people than the Panama City side. But with pattern reversal and filing in of the NW side, no doubt PC/PCB is going to take a licking.

[NDG]

Fairly squally wx over Key West, 43 mph wind gusts in one of those squalls.

Conditions at: KEYW observed 08 October 2018 12:40 UTC
Temperature: 26.7°C (80°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 82%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.89 inches Hg (1012.3 mb)
Winds: from the ESE (120 degrees) at 30 MPH (26 knots; 13.5 m/s)
gusting to 43 MPH (37 knots; 19.2 m/s)
Visibility: 3 miles (5 km)
Ceiling: 3400 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1600 feet AGL
broken clouds at 3400 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 8000 feet AGL
Present Weather: -RA (light rain)
KEYW 081240Z 12026G37KT 3SM -RA FEW016 BKN034 OVC080 27/23 A2989 RMK AO2 PK WND 13037/1240 P0015 T02670233

[Emmett_Brown]

The center keeps jogging NE on the second VDM.

[GCANE]

A couple 70mm/hr cells east of the CoC.
Warm core looks a bit wide