2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:12 euro again into CA
Look again. Over the water further north. Dangerous spot with big weakness north of it.
6 runs in row showing development.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:12 euro again into CA
Disagree. Look at 500mb. Verbatim this hits a wall and moves N and then NE. Once again, that’s a classic climo setup. But alas, it’s 10 days out.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Talking about the Eastern Atlantic wave.
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1049013826484690945
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1049013826484690945
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Indeed quite the dangerous setup as the Canadian shows which wave exactly is this coming from? There is a rather potent one just of the African coast.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Holy 12z eps has a barrage of hurricanes at FL..
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:Holy 12z eps has a barrage of hurricanes at FL..
Graphic?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18z FV3 closes the second storm over S.Fla in 240hr. Looks like it's following the same start like Michael it started further North and East and then moved more West. This has my attention because FV3 and the Euro have the highest resolution and the CMC is also onboard and was pretty good with Michael.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Again were is this wave the models are developing in the caribbean? It certainly is not the eastern most wave near africa that appears will recurve quickly into the open atlantic.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Euro keeps it weak and continues to send whatever developes into Central America. Hopefully after Michael the season is just about over.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:Euro keeps it weak and continues to send whatever developes into Central America. Hopefully after Michael the season is just about over.
Even the 00z EPS Ensembles have trended weaker and west through day 10.
Btw, do you happen to have any of those longer range spaghetti plots for the 00z ensembles that you posted the last few days?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
surely upwelling of GOM from Michael would limit anything from really getting strong?!!
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
robbielyn wrote:surely upwelling of GOM from Michael would limit anything from really getting strong?!!
It won't matter if whatever pops buries itself in CA
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:SFLcane wrote:Euro keeps it weak and continues to send whatever developes into Central America. Hopefully after Michael the season is just about over.
Even the 00z EPS Ensembles have trended weaker and west through day 10.
Btw, do you happen to have any of those longer range spaghetti plots for the 00z ensembles that you posted the last few days?
Sure thing.. https://lab.weathermodels.com/
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
NAVGEM has this now but week because it only goes out to 180. So FV3, Euro, CMC and Icon are showing development.
Last edited by blp on Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
FV3 with its strongest run. I am not going past 10 days for now but that is a very dangerous location.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:SFLcane wrote:Euro keeps it weak and continues to send whatever developes into Central America. Hopefully after Michael the season is just about over.
Even the 00z EPS Ensembles have trended weaker and west through day 10.
Btw, do you happen to have any of those longer range spaghetti plots for the 00z ensembles that you posted the last few days?
Sure thing.. https://lab.weathermodels.com/
Even though the OPS is over CA. The ensembles are still over the W. Caribbean primarily.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
blp wrote:SFLcane wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:Even the 00z EPS Ensembles have trended weaker and west through day 10.
Btw, do you happen to have any of those longer range spaghetti plots for the 00z ensembles that you posted the last few days?
Sure thing.. https://lab.weathermodels.com/
Even though the OPS is over CA. The ensembles are still over the W. Caribbean primarily.
https://image.ibb.co/crJ63p/eps_mslp_rings_carib_252.png
But even they have trended west. Yesterday they were all over Florida or close to it.
Also, that FV-3 GFS location is pretty close to where Michael is now.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Could it be that the Euro is being left biased again? I guess we’ll have to wait and find out.
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