ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139526
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
MDR turns active in October.
08/1200 UTC 8.9N 27.1W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120036&p=2719246#p2719246
08/1200 UTC 8.9N 27.1W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120036&p=2719246#p2719246
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kazmit
- Category 5
- Posts: 1915
- Age: 21
- Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
- Location: Williamsburg VA for college, Bermuda otherwise
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Didn't expect this, lol. This would be the 14th named storm- pretty good for a season expected to be slightly below average.
5 likes
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139526
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
I think is the first time I see that SAB takes the lead and announces the invest first than ATCF.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139526
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Here is now ATCF:
AL, 93, 2018100712, , BEST, 0, 75N, 216W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100718, , BEST, 0, 77N, 227W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 237W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100806, , BEST, 0, 83N, 247W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100812, , BEST, 0, 90N, 259W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100718, , BEST, 0, 77N, 227W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 237W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100806, , BEST, 0, 83N, 247W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100812, , BEST, 0, 90N, 259W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139526
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Looks good.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- gfsperpendicular
- Category 1
- Posts: 383
- Age: 20
- Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:04 pm
- Location: Northern Virginia
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Starting to see some turning in there!
3 likes
I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!
#1 CMC stan
#1 CMC stan
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
This looks textbook code red to me, but not sure how much attention it will be given because both Michael and Leslie are possible land threats this week.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
If this turns into a long-tracking Nadine, it seems like we'll be on lock for an Above-Normal ACE season total.
0 likes
- gfsperpendicular
- Category 1
- Posts: 383
- Age: 20
- Joined: Mon Jun 19, 2017 3:04 pm
- Location: Northern Virginia
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Buck wrote:If this turns into a long-tracking Nadine, it seems like we'll be on lock for an Above-Normal ACE season total.
For sure. However, it looked like the NHC hinted at hostile conditions ahead?
2 likes
I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!
#1 CMC stan
#1 CMC stan
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Buck wrote:If this turns into a long-tracking Nadine, it seems like we'll be on lock for an Above-Normal ACE season total.
We need 112 SCE for that, given both Michael and Leslie are still rolling, probably even a fairly short lived Nadine will probably top it over the edge.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
gfsperpendicular wrote:Buck wrote:If this turns into a long-tracking Nadine, it seems like we'll be on lock for an Above-Normal ACE season total.
For sure. However, it looked like the NHC hinted at hostile conditions ahead?
You're right... I misread "unfavorable" as favorable this AM.
2 likes
- TheAustinMan
- Category 5
- Posts: 1012
- Age: 24
- Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
- Location: United States
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
This morning's ScatSat pass of 93L would appear to suggest we have a pretty well organized circulation out there. Tropical-storm-force winds were sampled by the satellite out there as well. Visible and infrared satellite imagery also show banding features are starting to develop (1.1 MB). I would guess that we do indeed have a tropical depression out in the tropical Atlantic, and possibly Nadine to go along with that.
1.5 MB. Source: KNMI
1.5 MB. Source: KNMI
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
No doubt, this IS a T.D.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
This really developed fast, especially for an E. Atlantic October disturbance. October is generally notorious for slow plodding - slow developing systems. Not only is it apperant that low level clouds are screaming eastward and into the circulation, but a new tower is going up as I write this. With an overall core seemingly established, any continued co-located convection bursting over or near center and it may easily be a T.S. by tonight. Understandably this system is not priority especially in light of it likely merging with Leslie in a few days. Still, i'd hope that someone over at NHC take another peek at this during the afternoon because I'd say it's going up fast.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139526
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
2 PM TWO:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue
to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite data
indicate that the system currently lacks a well-defined surface
circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves generally west-northwestward. By
late this week, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit
further development of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue
to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite data
indicate that the system currently lacks a well-defined surface
circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves generally west-northwestward. By
late this week, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit
further development of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
I swear, I must be looking through rose-colored satellite glasses then.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- EquusStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1649
- Age: 33
- Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
- Location: Jasper, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
I wish a press release had been put forth when the definition of what constitutes a tropical cyclone was so dramatically changed, because this is getting confusing
5 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 7294
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
EquusStorm wrote:I wish a press release had been put forth when the definition of what constitutes a tropical cyclone was so dramatically changed, because this is getting confusing
Seems to change with each new director. I've been watching this happen for decades.
This year the nhc is upgrading subtropical systems very fast and expecting slightly more from purely tropical systems compared to last year. A lot of these 30 north subtropical systems in pass seasons either wouldn't have been upgraded or the nhc would have waited for them to become tropical.
3 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139526
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
18z Best Track:
AL, 93, 2018100818, , BEST, 0, 94N, 271W, 25, 1011, DB
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- EquusStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1649
- Age: 33
- Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
- Location: Jasper, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion
Interesting... glad to know it's not just my imagination. That obviously isn't ideal for historical consistency but eh, it is what it is, and helps put the somewhat questionable subtropical storm record into context.
1 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests