ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

[Buck]

I'm no expert but I get bad vibes from Michael... he's already RI for the first day of his lifetime, and I only see it continuing. I think his intensity might catch a lot of people off guard. I'm not going to be surprised if he makes it close to or at Cat 4 status.

[p1nheadlarry]

Lotsa towers firing all around the northern eyewall now.

Once the eye closes the southeast side (or northeast? forget which) and these overshooting storms slow down, the storm could maintain it's intensity before ramping up again. Would like to see a skew-T of the southern GOM.

[NDG]

Lowest pressure found at 21.3N & 84.95W

140730 2118N 08457W 8433 01352 9822 +235 +133 216017 021 020 001 03

[tolakram]

SLIDER loop showing the evolution of shear from earlier till now. Takes a bit to load.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=60&ts=2&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=7&x=8544&y=7497

[cycloneye]

[ronjon]

Look at that huge lightning filled convective mass on the east side. It is about to pound the isle of youth and western cuba. If the system maintains this configuration and doesn't gain it's anticipated longitude some rather heavy weather could make it onto or just graze the west coast. The latest QPF output keeps the heavy stuff just west of here but it's going to be a close shave. Perhaps Dennis 05 might be an analog for the west coast as the system transits the eastern gulf. we escaped significant impacts here but I strongly prefer a bigger margin of safety.

If it tracks just 50-100 miles further east, we're in some deep do do on the west coast

RGEM mesoscale prediction - banding along west coast counties.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100806&fh=54

[Mouton]

I'm no expert but I get bad vibes from Michael... he's already RI for the first day of his lifetime, and I only see it continuing. I think his intensity might catch a lot of people off guard. I'm not going to be surprised if he makes it close to or at Cat 4 status.

Bastardi has it as a cat 3/4 this AM posting. He has been onto this since weeks ago so got to give him props on that.

[psyclone]

Look at that huge lightning filled convective mass on the east side. It is about to pound the isle of youth and western cuba. If the system maintains this configuration and doesn't gain it's anticipated longitude some rather heavy weather could make it onto or just graze the west coast. The latest QPF output keeps the heavy stuff just west of here but it's going to be a close shave. Perhaps Dennis 05 might be an analog for the west coast as the system transits the eastern gulf. we escaped significant impacts here but I strongly prefer a bigger margin of safety.

If it tracks just 50-100 miles further east, we're in some deep do do on the west coast

Even a more modest shift would warrant an expansion of the TS watch down to Englewood. I like the NHC's general track reasoning but sytems tend to find ways to end up a bit right of the track and this one has been doing that all along. It's tough to bet against persistence and dimes turn to dollars given sufficient time. Speaking from a MBY perspective I'd feel better if the system would reacquire some lost longitude (as it's forecast to do) but thus far it seems stubbornly disinclined to do so..

[Miami Storm Tracker]

On the loop just posted wondering what effects if any the upper level Low east of the Bahamas would have on steering.

[NDG]

83 knots flight level winds so far.

141730 2129N 08524W 8431 01418 9931 +156 +101 061077 083 061 026 02

[KWT]

83 knots flight level winds so far.

141730 2129N 08524W 8431 01418 9931 +156 +101 061077 083 061 026 02

Enough to justify 70kts, though obviously next advisory will be 65kts.

[NDG]

83 knots flight level winds so far.

141730 2129N 08524W 8431 01418 9931 +156 +101 061077 083 061 026 02

Enough to justify 70kts, though obviously next advisory will be 65kts.

I think 70 knots is justifiable since those winds are in the NW quadrant, I am sure there are even stronger winds in the NE quadrant which they did not sampled.

[blp]

Easy to see the evolution here. You can see the Eastward shift quite clearly in the last 24hrs. I don't think any model had this degree of eastward motion. Also, look at that eye taking shape.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like the amount Michael jumped north on that last fix caught recon off guard, judging by the path and loop they took. I wonder if they are headed back to base now...

[vbhoutex]

Wow, Michael is putting on a show this morning. Almost looks like any eye on the visible loop too. Looks like its going to be a large hurricane.....30 mile wide eye. Gonna be a October Nightmare. Expect huge storm surge....MGC

Unfortunately, Michael has some very deep warm water to fuel him as he moves North into the GOM. Even if the winds don't make it to CAT3 or better there will probably be major surge for much of the FL Gulf coast from at least the Tampa area N and W through much of the low lying coast of the FL Big Bend W to possibly the AL/FL state line. Biggest take away for anyone in Hurricane or surge warned areas is PREPARE NOW FOR AT LEAST ONE CATEGORY ABOVE THE FORECAST FOR YOUR AREA FOR BOTH WIND AND SURGE. IF YOU ARE ORDERED TO EVACUATE, DO SO WITHOUT QUESTION. IT IS ALWAYS BETTER TO BE SAFE THAN TO BE SORRY!!

[NDG]

Pressure down to 982mb.

URNT12 KNHC 081431
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 08/14:09:40Z
B. 21.30 deg N 084.99 deg W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. 982 mb
E. NA
F. OPEN NW
G. C30
H. 49 kt
I. 179 deg 30 nm 13:57:00Z
J. 254 deg 62 kt
K. 179 deg 37 nm 13:55:00Z
L. 61 kt
M. 291 deg 23 nm 14:16:30Z
N. 060 deg 83 kt
O. 295 deg 26 nm 14:17:30Z
P. 20 C / 1529 m
Q. 24 C / 1526 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 8
T. 0.02 / 0.75 nm
U. AF301 0314A MICHAEL OB 19
MAX FL WIND 83 KT 295 / 26 NM 14:17:3

[cycloneye]

11 AM Advisory:Forecast to be Major Cane

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 90SW 100NW.

[HeeBGBz]

I'm no expert but I get bad vibes from Michael... he's already RI for the first day of his lifetime, and I only see it continuing. I think his intensity might catch a lot of people off guard. I'm not going to be surprised if he makes it close to or at Cat 4 status.

It reminds me of Katrina setup when she boomed and went NW and was supposed to go to Florida. I wonder what happens when its finally in the gulf?

[jaxfladude]

Are the models off or will Michael even it's track o over time and follow nhc track?
Edit-Need to know if my area Jax is going to experience enough impacts to warrant extra action?