ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

...DISTURBANCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Pinar del Rio and Isle of Youth.

The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche



Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of the low pressure area in the northwestern Caribbean
Sea is getting better defined, and that the associated convection
is becoming better organized. While the system is currently not
well enough organized to call it a tropical depression, current
indications in the global models and the intensity guidance are that
the system will develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 h and
could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of western Cuba
and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Based on the need for
warnings and watches in these areas, advisories are being initiated
on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen.

Although the intensity guidance is in excellent agreement that the
system should strengthen through the forecast period, the global
models indicate that shear caused by an upper-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico will persist through at least 48 h. In addition, the
strongest winds are currently well removed from the center, which is
likely to slow development. Based on this, the intensity forecast
is in the lower part of the guidance envelope through 48 h, and then
shows a faster rate of development from 48-96 h when the shear is
forecast to diminish. The intensity forecast is closest to a blend
of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

For the first 24-48 h, the disturbance should move generally
northward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the
Caribbean Sea. After that time, a large mid-latitude trough over
the central United States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over the
western Atlantic should steer the system generally northward at a
faster forward speed, with the system expected to move near or over
the northern Gulf coast in about 96 h. After landfall, the system
is likely to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The track
guidance is in good overall agreement with this scenario. However,
it should be noted that there is a nearly 300 n mi cross-track
spread in the guidance at the 96-h point. The forecast track lies
just to the west of the various consensus models.

Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:

1. This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash
flooding over portions of Central America, western Cuba, and the
northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. The system is also forecast to become a tropical storm by
Sunday night and tropical storm conditions are expected over
portions of western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to
portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too
soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.0N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from
Tulum to Cabo Catoche to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche



National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Radar data from Belize and infrared satellite imagery indicate that
the low pressure system centered just off the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula has continued to become better organized, with deep
convection consolidating just to the northeast of the low-level
center. Dvorak estimates have increased to T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5
from SAB, indicating that the convective pattern has become
sufficiently organized for the low to now be declared a tropical
depression. The maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on
earlier ASCAT data.

The Belize radar data was extremely helpful in locating the
depression's center, and the system's 12-hour average motion is
north-northwestward, or 340 degrees, at a very slow 3 kt. The
depression is expected to move generally northward during the next
3 days, gradually gaining speed as it enters the southerly flow
between high pressure over the western Atlantic and an advancing
deep-layer trough over the western half of the United States. After
day 3, the trough is expected to cause the cyclone to turn
northeastward and accelerate further across the southeastern United
States. While the track models agree on the general scenario,
there are some speed differences, most notably with the ECMWF model
being slower than the other guidance. Also, the ECMWF and GFS
models are located along the western edge of the guidance envelope.
In light of these facts, the new NHC prediction is just a little
slower than the previous one, and it lies to the west of the TVCN
multi-model consensus and the HCCA model during the first 3 days of
the forecast.

The depression is still being hampered by 20-30 kt of westerly
shear, however it is also located in an environment of upper-level
diffluence to the southeast of a stationary trough over the Gulf of
Mexico. The shear in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone is
forecast to gradually abate during the next 2-3 days while the
diffluent upper-air pattern continues, and along with sufficiently
warm waters of 28-30 degrees Celsius, all indications are that the
depression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over
the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, nearly every piece of intensity
guidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches
land, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models, which all
show significant deepening of the central pressure. The updated NHC
intensity forecast generally lies between the ICON intensity
consensus and the HCCA model for the entire forecast period, and it
now explicitly shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength by 72
hours.


Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1. The depression is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next couple of days.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over
portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over
portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is
too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these
impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 18.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...
...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 86.8W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Satellite and radar data indicate that the depression continues to
become better organized, but surface data suggests the circulation
may be somewhat elongated. There is still evidence of westerly
shear as the center is located near the western edge of the main
convective mass, but there has been an increase in banding over
the eastern semicircle since yesterday afternoon. The depression
appears to be close to tropical storm strength and Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are between 30-35 kt. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system early this afternoon and should provide a better assessment
of the intensity of the cyclone. For now, the intensity is held at
a possibly conservative 30 kt.

The moderate westerly shear that is affecting the depression is
forecast to gradually decrease over the next day or two as an
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves westward and
weakens. This, in combination with warm waters, should allow for
gradual strengthening as the system moves northward over the Gulf of
Mexico. Nearly all of the intensity models bring the cyclone to
hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days, and the
NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast is
slightly higher than the previous advisory and again lies near the
ICON intensity consensus. This is a little below the more aggressive
HWRF and HCCA models.

The depression is moving northward at about 5 kt. The system is
forecast to move generally northward during the next 2 to 3 days,
with some increase in forward speed as it moves between a deep-layer
ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central
United Sates. A northeastward turn is expected after 72 hours as
the aforementioned trough progresses eastward across the central
United States. The dynamical models generally agree on the overall
scenario, but there are still large difference in forward speed. In
fact, the ECMWF ensemble has members that are still over the Gulf of
Mexico in 5 days, and others that reach southern New England in that
time period. The NHC forecast is near the left side of the guidance
envelope through 48 hours out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF that
are both on that side of the track spread. After that time, the NHC
track forecast is close to the various consensus aids to account for
both the along and cross track spread of the guidance.


Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:

1. The depression is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and
flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later
today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over
portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,
where tropical storm warnings are in effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by
mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and
magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 19.2N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.0N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 23.2N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 24.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1155 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Satellite wind data indicate that the depression has strengthened
into Tropical Storm Michael. The maximum winds are estimated to be
40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Michael.


SUMMARY OF 1155 AM CDT...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO SPREAD HEAVY RAINS OVER WESTERN CUBA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. Michael is
currently stationary but is expected to resume a slow northward
motion later today. A northward motion with some increase in forward
speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track,
the center of Michael will move near the northeastern tip of the
Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and
Michael could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 200 miles (320 km)
mainly to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected
over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula,
Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Monday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST INCREASING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 85.5W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES




Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

Deep convection has continued to develop over the eastern
semicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance
aircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,
closer to the convection. The Air Force aircraft has measured peak
925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of
40-45 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been
increased to 45 kt.

Due to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a
highly uncertain 020/3 kt. The overall forecast reasoning has not
changed much since the previous advisory. Although there could be
some additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical
storm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the
western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central
United States. A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then
expected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
Michael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough.
The track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario,
however, significant along-track (forward speed and timing)
differences remain. The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern
Gulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has
Michael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted
eastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward
initial position. The latter portion of the track forecast is again
close to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track
guidance spread.

Michael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear. The
shear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days
while the system moves over warm waters. This should allow for
steady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael
to hurricane strength within the next couple of days. It should
also be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the
storm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb. The new NHC
intensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about
36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Additional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the
storm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC
forecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 19.2N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 20.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 21.5N 85.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 23.2N 86.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.0N 86.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 33.7N 80.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/1800Z 39.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 85.4 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
over the Yucatan Channel on Monday, and then across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night, and approach the
United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Recent data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
indicate along with satellite images indicate that maximum sustained
winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 170 miles (275 km)
to the northeast and southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Cuban coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST BECOMING MORE LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael. A hurricane watch will likely be
required for a portion of this area on Monday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.4 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward
motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next
few days. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move
over the Yucatan Channel or extreme western Cuba on Monday, and then
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Tuesday night,
and approach the United States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Michael is forecast to become a hurricane Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Cuban coast within the warning area later tonight, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018

On the last outbound leg to the north, the Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of
60 kt and an SFMR surface wind of 53 kt in very light rain. Since
that time, deep convection has developed in the same area where
those peak wind values were measured, so the initial intensity has
been increased to a conservative 50 kt. Another recon aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Michael around 0600 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 005/03 kt based on the
recon and microwave satellite data. The bulk of the forecast
rationale remains unchanged, although there remains some notable
differences between the models that will ultimately determine where
and when Michael will make landfall in about 72 h or so. The GFS,
ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models are tightly clustered along the western
side of the guidance envelope. In contrast, the UKMET model is the
farthest east of the dynamical models. Interestingly, the NOAA
corrected-consensus HCCA model and the simple consensus IVCN models
are close to each other and lie between the aforementioned model
track dichotomy. Given that modest westerly vertical wind shear is
expected to affect Michael throughout the forecast period until
landfall occurs, which should keep the strongest convection,
associated latent heat release, and pressure falls occurring in the
eastern semicircle, the official forecast track leans more toward
the HCCA/IVCN and UKMET model solutions. As a result, a slight
eastward shift to the previous forecast track was made on this
advisory through 48 hours, with little change made to the previous
advisory track on days 3-5.

Michael's overall cloud pattern remains unchanged, with the bulk of
the convection being displaced into the eastern semicircle due to
about 20 kt of westerly shear. However, the inner-core convective
pattern within about 60 nmi of the center has been improving over
the past few hours, and a recent SSMI/S microwave pass reveled a
tightly curved band wrapping about 75 percent around the center.
This better structure combined with very warm sea-surface
temperatures of at least 29 deg C supports at least gradual
strengthening until landfall despite the expected persistent
westerly shear conditions. The HWRF model is the most robust of the
intensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just
prior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and
HMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly
shear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern
semicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of
an intense hurricane. Therefore, the HRWF intensity solution has
been discounted, and the new official intensity forecast remains
similar to the previous advisory, which is close to but a little
lower than the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. Although
the 72-h forecast shows a decrease to 75 kt, this is due to the
cyclone being inland, and should not be interpreted as being an
indication of a weakening trend prior to landfall.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of
western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In
addition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf
Coast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of
the storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice
given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.0N 85.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 21.1N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 22.7N 85.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 24.4N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 26.3N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 30.4N 84.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND ERN FL PANHNDL
96H 12/0000Z 34.9N 78.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0000Z 40.7N 64.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[arlwx]

Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL...
...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 85.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.

Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should
monitor the progress of Michael. A hurricane watch will likely be
required for a portion of this area today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.1 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward
the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A general northward motion with some
increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On
the forecast track, the center of Michael will move over the Yucatan
Channel or extreme western Cuba today, cross the eastern Gulf of
Mexico later today through Tuesday night, and approach the United
States northeastern Gulf coast on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days,
and Michael is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is
994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning to spread
across portions of the Cuban coast within the warning area.
Tropical storm conditions are also very close to the coast of
Mexico within the warning area.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the
Yucatan Peninsula and Belize through Tuesday. Isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas
of mountainous terrain.

Elsewhere, outer rain bands from Michael are expected to produce
total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys
through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[arlwx]

Tropical Storm Michael Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL ALMOST A HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG
BEND...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 85.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Navarre Florida to Anna
Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama-Florida border
eastward to the Suwanee River Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Suwanee River to
Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm
Watch has also been issued from the Alabama-Florida border to the
Mississippi-Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Michael was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 20.6 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward
the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at a slightly
faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night, followed by
a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Michael will move northward across the Yucatan
Channel later today, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
this evening through Wednesday. Michael is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Michael is
expected to become a hurricane later today. Michael is forecast to
be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Crystal River...7-11 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...4-7 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio later today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas
in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday night...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into southern Georgia...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
may lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Keys...2 to 4 inches.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[arlwx]

Tropical Storm Michael Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Michael has become better organized this morning, with the deep
convection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and
upper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western
semicircle. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made
several passes through the system during the past few hours, and
somewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen
to about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt.
This increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which
has been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly
intensified during the past 24 hours.

With the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official
intensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast.
Decreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures
are expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the
favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of
the IVCN consensus and the HCCA model. This new official forecast
brings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48
hours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time
between 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael
will strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall. Weakening is
expected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain
tropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east
coast of the United States. Michael should then become an
extratropical low by day 5.

The reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving
northward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt. A general northward motion with
some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours
as Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the
western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and
central United States. After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn
northeastward toward and across the southeastern United States,
exiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5. Nearly all
of the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which
left the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance
envelope. Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also
been adjusted westward close to the consensus aids. Overall the
track guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along
the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a
fairly confident track forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba,
where a hurricane warning is now in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and
the Isle of Youth today.

2. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

3. Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major
hurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week,
and storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for
portions of the area. Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are
especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's
exact track or intensity. Residents in the watch areas should
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 20.6N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 21.7N 85.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 23.5N 86.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 25.2N 86.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 27.2N 86.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 31.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/0600Z 35.5N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 13/0600Z 40.5N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING
EXPECTED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 84.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwannee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 84.9 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A northward motion at
a slightly faster forward speed is expected through Tuesday night,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Michael will move northward near the
western tip of Cuba this afternoon and into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday night, and is expected to move inland
over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday,
and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass to Crystal River...8-12 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Indian Pass...5-8 ft
Crystal River to Anclote River...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Navarre to Okaloosa/Walton County Line...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will spread across the far western part
of the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio this afternoon and evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions possible by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through the weekend...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend into the Carolinas...4 to 8
inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4 inches with
local amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-
threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

The satellite presentation of Michael has continued to improve
overnight and this morning, with the center well embedded within an
area of cold cloud tops. An eye is becoming apparent in visible
imagery, and this was also confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave
overpass and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft. The
aircraft reported a minimum pressure around 982 mb during the most
recent pass through the center, and also found flight-level
winds that support upgrading Michael to a a 65-kt hurricane for this
advisory.

Although the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western
portion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that
direction. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a
little more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Now that Michael has developed an
inner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and
DTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during
the next 24 hours. The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24
hours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status. After
that time, most of the intensity guidance slows down the rate of
intensification, perhaps due to a slight increase in southwesterly
shear. Weakening is expected after landfall, but the forecast track
keeps a portion of the circulation over water along the southeast
U.S. coast, so Michael is predicted to remain a tropical storm
through 72 hours. The system should become a powerful extratropical
low off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in about 4 days.

Reconnaissance aircraft fixes indicate that Michael is still moving
a little east of due north. The hurricane should move northward or
north-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm
crosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico. By 48 hours, Michael should
turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central
United States. The cross-track spread in the guidance has
decreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in
how fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. The HWRF
and GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still
much slower. The NHC track is along the eastern side of the
guidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm,
and is remains near the various consensus aids after that time. The
post-tropical portion of the track and intensity forecast is based
on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.

Key Messages:

1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it
reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-
threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity.
Residents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow
any advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane
warnings will likely be issued later today.

2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of the Carolinas through Thursday.

3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba
this afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan
Peninsula and the Isle of Youth today.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 21.2N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 22.6N 85.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.4N 85.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 26.4N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 28.6N 86.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z 42.8N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...CENTER OF MICHAEL PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
DANGEROUS WINDS INCREASING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 85.1W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM NE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL BRINGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO
WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Anclote River.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Navarre Florida to
the Alabama/Florida border.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Suwannee River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama/Florida border
westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Alabama/Florida
border westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border and from Suwannee
River Florida southward to Chassahowitzka Florida.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border westward to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening,
then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was reported at an
observing site in Isabel Rubio in the Cuban province of Pinar del
Rio earlier this afternoon.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the
far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina...
4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that was
in the storm until about 1700 UTC continued to indicate that the
hurricane was deepening. The pressure had fallen to 978 mb on
the final fix, but the aircraft was still not able to sample the
northeastern portion of the storm due to the close proximity of
land. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a
blend of Dvorak satellite classifications and the continued
deepening that was observed.

The upper-level outflow has gradually improved over Michael but it
is still somewhat restricted over the western portion of the storm.
There has been no significant change to the intensity forecast
thinking. The moderate shear that has been affecting the cyclone is
not expected to prevent strengthening while Michael moves over the
warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although the statistical
guidance is somewhat lower this cycle, the regional hurricane and
global models still favor steady to rapid strengthening, and the NHC
forecast is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP
corrected consensus model.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Michael has been wobbling as
it moves generally northward. Smoothing through the wobbles gives a
long-term initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. Michael is forecast
to move north-northwestward to northward between a deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United
States. The trough is forecast move eastward, causing Michael to
turn northeastward in 36 to 48 hours, and the cyclone should then
accelerate northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerly
flow. The 1200 UTC dynamical models have converged on both the
track and forward speed through the first 48 to 72 hours. The
updated NHC track has been nudged slightly westward through 48 hours
to be closer to the latest consensus aids.

It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm
surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,
intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still
uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge
forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible
scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of
Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along
portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the
storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for
parts of this area.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission
over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be
assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for
life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.
Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba
through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.

5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 22.2N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.7N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 30.2N 85.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1800Z 34.5N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 46.2N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS MICHAEL A LITTLE STRONGER...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 85.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

...MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the northeastern Yucatan peninsula and Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Michael was located by NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.3 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will continue to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight, then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over
the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and
then move northeastward across the southeastern United States
Wednesday night and Thursday.

Reports from the two reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
day or so, and Michael is expected to become a major hurricane by
Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the two aircraft
was 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the far
western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, Georgia and South
Carolina... 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Yucatan Peninsula...Additional rainfall less than 1 inch.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft this
evening indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen...despite
westerly vertical shear of about 20 kt, which is most unusual. The
maximum 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by NOAA so far has
been 102 kt and maximum SFMR surface wind speed was 78 kt. The
central pressure measured by the two aircraft has been fluctuating
between 970 mb and 974 mb, which is likely due to small mesovortices
rotating around inside the fairly large 35-nmi-wide eye. Given the
aforementioned wind data and the possibility of locally enhanced
winds due to the mesovortices, the initial intensity has only been
increased to 80 kt rather than 85 kt, which the NOAA flight-level
wind data would typically support.

The initial motion estimate is 350/11 kt. The steering flow pattern
isn't forecast to change much, if at all, for the next 36-48 hours,
with Michael expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge
centered off of the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude
mid-latitude trough over the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico.
The combined deep-layer southerly flow should keep the hurricane
moving northward to north-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so.
Shortly thereafter and just prior to landfall, the approaching
mid-latitude trough is expected to turn Michael toward the
north-northeast or northeast. By 48 hours and beyond, significant
acceleration toward the northeast ahead of the trough is forecast to
continue through the 120-h period, with Michael emerging off of the
U.S. mid-Atlantic coast around 96 hours. The new NHC forecast track
was nudged slightly to the east of the previous track through 36 h,
based on the more eastward initial position and a forward motion
that is still to the right or east of short term motion in the model
guidance, but is still near the consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and
NOAA-HCCA. By 48 hours and beyond, the official track is close to
the previous advisory track.

Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant. Having said that, all of the model
guidance calls for the shear to decrease to around 10 kt or less by
36 hours, which argues for at least steady intensification during
that time given that Michael will be moving over warm SSTs of
28.5C-29C, which are about 1-2 deg C above average for this time of
the year. Less-than-normal weakening after landfall in the 48-
to 96-h period is expected due to Michael's fast forward speed of
20-30 kt. Re-strengthening as an extratropical low over water on
days 4 and 5 is forecast due to baroclinic interaction with a
frontal system and the cyclone being back over warm Atlantic waters.
The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the
consensus models IVCN and HCCA, and is similar to the previous
advisory and the FSSE model.

It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm
surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,
intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still
uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge
forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible
scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of
Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along
portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the
storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for
parts of this area.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic
surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from
that mission will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models
runs.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for
life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.
Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba
through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.

5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 23.2N 85.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 26.8N 86.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 29.1N 85.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 31.4N 84.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 35.9N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 13/0000Z 41.5N 63.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0000Z 47.8N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 85.9W
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the southeastern
coast of the United States from Fernandina Beach, Florida to South
Santee River, South Carolina.

The Government of Cuba has changed the Hurricane Warning for the
province of Pinar del Rio to a Tropical Storm Warning and has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 85.9 West. Michael is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected through tonight,
followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Michael will continue to move over
the southern Gulf of Mexico this morning, then move across the
eastern Gulf of Mexico later today and tonight. The center of
Michael is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or
Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward
across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a
major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected
after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United
States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of
40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm conditions conditions will continue over
portions of the far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio for the
next few hours.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few
hours ago indicate that Michael's strengthening has paused, with
the maximum winds near 80 kt and a central pressure near 973 mb.
The aircraft also reported that the eyewall had become less
organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment and shear.
The latest satellite imagery shows the convective banding becoming
better defined, and the next aircraft will shortly arrive in the
hurricane to provide better information on whether intensification
has resumed.

The initial motion is now 345/10. There is little change in either
the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Michael
expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge centered off of
the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude mid-latitude trough over
the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico. This pattern should
steer the hurricane north-northwestward to northward for the next 24
h or so, followed by a turn to the northeast as Michael recurves
into the westerlies. Only minor tweaks have been made to the
previous forecast track, with Michael expected to make landfall in
the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and cross the southeastern United
States Wednesday night and Thursday.

The large-scale models continue to forecast a decrease in the shear
later today, and thus Michael is forecast to intensify further
before landfall. The new intensity forecast follows the previous
forecast in showing Michael as a category 3 hurricane at landfall.
The cyclone should weaken significantly as it crosses the
southeastern United States, then it should re-intensify over the
western Atlantic as it undergoes extratropical transition between
72-96 h.

It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm
surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,
intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still
uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge
forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible
scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of
Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along
portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the
storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for
parts of this area.

The NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic
surveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from
that mission will be assimilated into the 1200 UTC numerical models
runs.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for
life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.
Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of western
Cuba for a few more hours.

5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 24.1N 85.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 32.3N 83.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/0600Z 36.5N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 13/0600Z 42.5N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/0600Z 49.0N 40.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 86.1W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES