ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

How fast is he moving, he will be near shore in less than 3 days...is that enough time to really get to a M?

12 hrs (or less) is enough time to strengthen to 100 kts. Wilma went from a TS to a Cat 5 in under 24 hours. It's not moving fast now, but by the time it makes landfall it will be moving at 15+ mph and at closer to 20-25 mph across GA and the Carolinas.

[cycloneye]

Down to 981 mbs.

[Evil Jeremy]

Down to 981 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/HzK4dZh.png

And jogging back West...

[artist]

Down to 981 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/HzK4dZh.png

And jogging back West...

Not much

[SconnieCane]

ssd.noaa.gov is back to not showing floaters for the Atlantic. It was working during Florence.

[cycloneye]

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 08/15:22:10Z
B. 21.35 deg N 085.17 deg W
C. 850 mb 1263 m
D. 981 mb
E. 300 deg 5 kt
F. OPEN S
G. C30
H. 55 kt
I. 271 deg 27 nm 14:58:30Z
J. 204 deg 65 kt
K. 126 deg 16 nm 15:17:00Z
L. 60 kt
M. 241 deg 10 nm 15:25:30Z
N. 339 deg 61 kt
O. 230 deg 33 nm 15:32:00Z
P. 17 C / 1528 m
Q. 22 C / 1523 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 0314A MICHAEL OB 23
MAX FL WIND 83 KT 295 / 26 NM 14:17:30

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Yea I really miss the Floaters from NOAA.

[StPeteMike]

Down to 981 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/HzK4dZh.png

And jogging back West...

Could easily just be a wobble to the west as well.

[artist]

Yea I really miss the Floaters from NOAA.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/f ... d=AL142018
Storm floater images: Hurricane Michael at 21.2°N - 84.9°W
Generated every 15 minutes from full disk images; click to access the latest available image for each band.

[artist]

I was wrong above, evil Jeremy, here is the latest vortex image positions

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049322867119349760

[gfsperpendicular]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049322867119349760

What is the significance of this?

[austin06]

Mouton, yeah I am extremely concerned about the potential of an extremely massive storm surge up into Apalachicola and all along the Big Bend region. This could really be a devastating event if we have a major hurricane bearing down on them.

They had 12 feet storm surge occur into Apalachee Bay during the March 1993 Superstorm which was absolutely devastating to Cedar Key, Steinhatchee and other areas along the Big Bend. I shudder to think what Michael could do in that region.

Exactly what popped into my mind if the track is to the bend. I lived in Gainesville during the Superstorm (grew up in south Fl). It was the most intense storm I have ever experienced. Worst part came in the dead of night and we were afraid the roof was going to come off - the sound was like nothing I've ever heard. Huge trees down uprooted and debris everywhere.

We drove out to Cedar Key the next afternoon and the bridges were under water and we had to turn around - you could tell things were bad. I worked at an agency that handled relief for the area and wrote about the impact to the Cedar Key area. It was devastating and took years and years for them to recover. I truly hope they don't take a direct hit as I hope it's not a bad storm for anyone.

[cycloneye]

Great explanation of all the players.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1049327999928029190

[Hurricaneman]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049322867119349760

What is the significance of this?

It means high instability which in turn causes big time convection and a possibility of rapid intensification later today

[Abdullah]

We could very well wake up to a rapidly intensifying hurricane on this, you know.

The 18Z GFS run still had a bad initialization point for Michael; too far west. We need to wait for the 00Z runs.

By the way, the NorthEast Gulf of Mexico is Ocean.

I don't need to be patronized like that

Sorry about that



Can anyone get into the reason it is curving Eastward? What is the cause of this?

Thanks in Advance

[meriland29]

The thing that scares me the most about this is the very limited amount of time between genesis and landfall, giving the people in its path a very small amount of time to leave. And the fact that every advisory ups the ante in terms of strength at landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

oh goodie I woke up just in time for the RI wobbles..

[txwatcher91]

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049322867119349760

What is the significance of this?

Basically a sign of a rapidly organizing hurricane with extremely powerful thunderstorms wrapping around the center to produce the gravity waves. It's not something you see very often unless a storm is a major hurricane or rapidly intensifying.

[ObsessedMiami]

The thing that scares me the most about this is the very limited amount of time between genesis and landfall, giving the people in its path a very small amount of time to leave. And the fact that every advisory ups the ante in terms of strength at landfall.

And my Panhandle family are already saying "hype" and such nonsense. I am trying to talk some sense into them