ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[caneman]

Almost all the models showed a little tick NE before gaining an overall NNW movement. Everything is on schedule.

There is no set schedule. 72 hours out with 100 mile error could still take it as far west as Pensacola or as far east as Perry or Cedar Key. With huge implications for one or the other.

[ronjon]

Almost all the models showed a little tick NE before gaining an overall NNW movement. Everything is on schedule.

There is no set schedule. 72 hours out with 100 mile error could still take it as far west as Pensacola or as far east as Perry or Cedar Key. With huge implications for one or the other.

My surge forecast in Hernando County is 4-6 ft at the moment - combine that with new moon tides. Ugh! Hermine part 2.

[caneman]

Almost all the models showed a little tick NE before gaining an overall NNW movement. Everything is on schedule.

There is no set schedule. 72 hours out with 100 mile error could still take it as far west as Pensacola or as far east as Perry or Cedar Key. With huge implications for one or the other.

My surge forecast in Hernando County is 4-6 ft at the moment - combine that with new moon tides. Ugh! Hermine part 2.

Yep. A 50 mile track east would likely bring that up another 2 feet. Your Hernando right?

[ronjon]

There is no set schedule. 72 hours out with 100 mile error could still take it as far west as Pensacola or as far east as Perry or Cedar Key. With huge implications for one or the other.

My surge forecast in Hernando County is 4-6 ft at the moment - combine that with new moon tides. Ugh! Hermine part 2.

Yep. A 50 mile track east would likely bring that up another 2 feet. Your Hernando right?

Yes going to have to sandbag bottom floor - slab elev at 7 ft above sea level.

[toad strangler]

Almost all the models showed a little tick NE before gaining an overall NNW movement. Everything is on schedule.

There is no set schedule. 72 hours out with 100 mile error could still take it as far west as Pensacola or as far east as Perry or Cedar Key. With huge implications for one or the other.

My context was the cone. Should have mentioned that. So, yeah, on schedule.

[jdray]

06z NAM sharp hook to the NE into perry Florida. Yes I know its the NAM so....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100806&fh=6

Glad that's the NAM, that would be bad for the big bend area and throw more winds (down trees, tornados) over the Jacksonville area.

Sent from my LG-LS998 using Tapatalk

[bqknight]

Surprised by how quiet it is here given this storm...anyway...

12Z GFS rolling. Slightly SE of 6Z through 30 hours. Looked like it initialized well.

[ronjon]

12z NAM - sharp NE hook into Big Bend again. Yes it is the NAM...grain of salt.

[cheezyWXguy]

06z NAM sharp hook to the NE into perry Florida. Yes I know its the NAM so....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100806&fh=6

Glad that's the NAM, that would be bad for the big bend area and throw more winds (down trees, tornados) over the Jacksonville area.

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Of note, the 6z 32km NAM, and 12z for that matter, differ pretty substantially from the 3km output at the same respective times. 3km NAM at both times shows a landfall about 12 hours earlier, notably further west (32k shows big bend area, 3km shows Panama City area), and a storm about 60-70mb stronger, flirting with the 900mb mark.

[FLpanhandle91]

Ridging is a bit stronger and further west this run. Also the trough coming in from the plains is weaker and later. Landfall near Panama City Beach Wednesday afternoon as a cat 3. GFS trend has been so miniscule. It is holding on strong to the western Florida panhandle between Destin and PCB. One of these models is going to give in soon, but I have no idea which one. Euro run will be a big one.

[tolakram]

Surprised by how quiet it is here given this storm...anyway...

12Z GFS rolling. Slightly SE of 6Z through 30 hours. Looked like it initialized well.

People in the path of the storm should be preparing, not chatting on message boards. Not a lot of time with this one.

12Z GFS

[MrJames]

Shifts to the west for the UK




Looks like the 6Z Euro is working

[bella_may]

Kinda hard to tell because the frames are out of order, but FV3-GFS looks to be landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Destin

[NDG]

A zoomed in look at the GFS at forecasted landfall.

[SunnyThoughts]

Kinda hard to tell because the frames are out of order, but FV3-GFS looks to be landfall somewhere between Pensacola and Destin

Yeah, moved a tiny bit west.

[PavelGaborik10]

Too bullish 95% of the time

Wasn't it the most accurate model intensity wise last Season? Wouldn't throw it in the trash by any means.

the NHC just did lol

And now they're forecasting a 120 MPH Hurricane. Funny how things change.

[chaser1]

06z NAM sharp hook to the NE into perry Florida. Yes I know its the NAM so....

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100806&fh=6

Glad that's the NAM, that would be bad for the big bend area and throw more winds (down trees, tornados) over the Jacksonville area.

Sent from my LG-LS998 using Tapatalk

Of note, the 6z 32km NAM, and 12z for that matter, differ pretty substantially from the 3km output at the same respective times. 3km NAM at both times shows a landfall about 12 hours earlier, notably further west (32k shows big bend area, 3km shows Panama City area), and a storm about 60-70mb stronger, flirting with the 900mb mark.

I saw your post and figured no way LOL? But not only are you right, but the 3KM actually has it at 898 mb at 43 hours. I don't know what is more bizarre.... the 898 mb pressure or the fact that the 3 KM being a solid 3 1/2 degrees further west then it's 12 KM & 32 KM charts?

Edit: 12Z 3 KM and 12 KM show the same discrepancy?? Go figure.

[chaser1]

Wasn't it the most accurate model intensity wise last Season? Wouldn't throw it in the trash by any means.

the NHC just did lol

And now they're forecasting a 120 MPH Hurricane. Funny how things change.

There's an interesting model note comparison to jot down during future storm forecast analysis events

[bella_may]

Hwrf slightly sw of previous run so far

[chaser1]

Shifts to the west for the UK

https://i.imgur.com/e2yCNug.gif


Looks like the 6Z Euro is working

https://i.imgur.com/IO4S5UP.png

Two points here; one being quite interesting how the UK has actually trended west with the track. Wonder if having to do with either speeding up the storms forward motion prior to landfall, or if by chance it's a matter of backing off the earlier forecast of a more intense storm??

More curiously is this 6Z EPS run. I forgot that the EURO was soon going to implement 6Z and 18Z model runs. This chart obviously depicts the many ensemble members. Note that a somewhat larger percentage of the stronger members tend to bend NE earlier and sharper then most of the other members. Other question though is regarding that black center solid line. Is this to represent a westward shift of the 6Z operational EURO, or is that simply an average of all ensemble members line?