ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1049423089396797449

[supercane4867]

Cooler air near a tropical cyclone does NOT necessarily indicate they can be wrapped into the circulation and weakens the storm. Wilma was swept by a late October front with temperatures in the 40s behind yet it still intensified into a major hurricane while approaching Florida. Tropical Meteorology does not work as simple as someone here keep saying, end of the story.

[rolltide]

At least with the front coming though the folks that lose power won't have the suffer though these 90 degree temps we've been having.

[xironman]

Kermit is sure taking a funky route to the storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Kermit is sure taking a funky route to the storm.

doing a mix of sampling at various layers.

[TheAustinMan]

Taking a quick step back this dusk at Hurricane Michael and the Gulf of Mexico. Cirrus outflow is clearly evident, though some upper resistance has caused cirrus to form into a sort of bubble.

3.1 MB. Source: Grayscale isible and infrared data originally from NASA MSFC and then composited in the classic VIS/VIS/IR Day Cloud Convection technique myself.

[SFLcane]

Intensifying maybe...see link below.

https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/1049425750963687424?s=21

[Hammy]

Eastern eyewall looks good on radar.

[NDG]

I think the NOAA recon will find the eye a little further east than thought, it seems to be north of the western tip of Cuba, IMO.

[Aric Dunn]

I suspect pressure will probably be in the low 970s

[ozonepete]

[quote="GBPackMan"] The Jet stream remains anchored to the southwestern US with the eastern edge pushing further SE across the central plains which is what guides the turn to the NE with this storm into Panama City or further east. This is also the cold front that has snow being dropped into the Rockies, so it has the colder outflow off the SE turn of the jet stream that many models are not accounting for. /quote]

Many models don't know how to account for "the colder outflow off the SE tun of the jet stream"? You are confusing two different levels of the atmosphere, the surface and the upper levels.

[ozonepete]

Cooler air near a tropical cyclone does NOT necessarily indicate they can be wrapped into the circulation and weakens the storm. Wilma was swept by a late October front with temperatures in the 40s behind yet it still intensified into a major hurricane while approaching Florida. Tropical Meteorology does not work as simple as someone here keep saying, end of the story.

Exactly

[NDG]

The recon coming in found TS force winds 170 miles NNW from the coc.

[Javlin]

I think the NOAA recon will find the eye a little further east than thought, it seems to be north of the western tip of Cuba, IMO.

I am wondering about tilt and elevation.

[kevin mathis]

Eastern eyewall looks good on radar.

https://i.imgur.com/saLhH0n.png

Perhaps, but sometimes images on long range radar are a bit distorted.

[Abdullah]

I am expecting high 960s.

Recon turned South. It looks like it's going slower than they expected.

[SunnyThoughts]

https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/ ... e=5C5EE73B


Look what our Sheriffs office here in Santa Rosa county did lol

[meriland29]

You can literally see Michael say "Pardon me Cuba, just gonna...sneak ...past you here..ahh thanks Cuba"

[Javlin]

https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.15752-9/43388246_241463303391636_2839538213805096960_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&oh=4843aadb5074d22adf1350dd1c5eb54e&oe=5C5EE73B


Look what our Sheriffs office here in Santa Rosa county did lol

That's funny there

[DestinHurricane]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?