ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Abdullah]

Lowest SFMR found 967.8 mB.

That's into the high Category 2 range. Almost major.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure is definitely falling at a good clip, although I was personally expecting even lower in the 950s.

[CrazyC83]

Lowest SFMR found 967.8 mB.

That's into the high Category 2 range. Almost major.

Wind data only supports a 75 kt intensity, but it will likely catch up to the pressure.

[bob rulz]

75kt?

[Skogebo]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

Did you just say your zone has mandatory evacuations and then follow up by asking if you should stay?

If you decide to stay, and the sort of surge they say could happen does indeed happen, don't think you can call 911 and they will come save you. They aren't going to put themselves in danger. Your choice of course, but I sure wouldn't stay.

I never post here but I always come to read and learn from those of you that know more than me. THIS however I know about. My husband flies helicopters for the Texas National Guard. I cannot tell you how many people their unit had to rescue during Harvey. Some of them were not at fault but a good many of them were quite simply just being stubborn or stupid or a combination of the both. Every time my husband and a crew has to get in a helicopter and go perform a high water rescue it costs taxpayers an obscene amount of money and puts his life at risk.

Is that something you are comfortable with? Putting someones life at risk because you thought you knew more than the people that ordered a mandatory evacuation? These men and women will do that for you and they will do it with honor and never expect a thank you but dude. Come on. Evacuate. It's the right thing to do. There are people that will not evacuate because they are not able or for reasons out of their control. That's not you. Let the resources be spent helping people that NEED them.

Sorry if that was rough but this kind of stuff really bugs me. I mean no disrespect. Just being honest.

[CrazyC83]

75kt?

This data set supports that intensity.

[meriland29]

Lowest SFMR found 967.8 mB.

That's into the high Category 2 range. Almost major.

Well pressure wise, yes, but that doesn't necessarily mean his winds are up to there. I have seen many storms have even cat 4 MB but the winds stayed only at a cat 2 level.

[NDG]

Fix: 22.5N & 85.25W

232000 2231N 08514W 6955 02937 9678 +193 +089 289013 015 021 000 00

[bob rulz]

Pressure falls like this typically precede a big uptake in winds. Hard to imagine this not becoming a cat 3. I feel that cat 4 cannot be ruled out. Stranger things have certainly happened.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Almost closed off an eye on microwave...still open in the SW side but looks like that is going to close off soon.

[cheezyWXguy]

Lowest SFMR found 967.8 mB.

That's into the high Category 2 range. Almost major.

Wind data only supports a 75 kt intensity, but it will likely catch up to the pressure.

Agreed, Michael still hasn't fully consolidated a tight inner core, and the prominent outer bands are likely flattening out the pressure gradient.

[Hurricane Mike]

Wow convection deepening quick as Mike leaves Cuba, atleast on the shortwave IR.

[kthmcc7319]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

We’re in zone C, far west edge of the county - Choctaw Beach - trying to make the same call. All of our neighbors, who have lived here for decades, are staying. I think it just depends on where you are and what risks you are willing to take. If you have doubts then it’s best to evacuate.

I would't base my answers on what others around me are doing. Yesterday morning, Michael wasnt even supposed to be a big threat, now, today, it is a imminent landfall and a peak intensity of 120 mph...who knows what tomorrow will bring. I personally would leave, sooner than later. The time frame between now and landfall is slim and if this is anticipated to be any worse, you can bet those roads will be full-stop backed up for hours and hours.

Just to be clear, I’m not advocating anyone stay when a mandatory evacuation has been ordered. We live six or seven miles inland from the coast. We are also 15 feet above sea level. If we lived 2 miles down the road we would be in another county and not be in an evacuation zone. To be safe, we will go to my mother-in-law’s place tomorrow which is 10 miles west of us and not in an evacuation zone.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

IMO, considering the current rate of deepening I think Michael will be a Cat 2 by 11

[NDG]

Michael now has a nice tighter & stronger eyewall than earlier in the afternoon.

[Ritzcraker]

Can just barely see the COC off of Key West doppler

[tolakram]

COD floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-ntmicro-48-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Standard IR
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Jag95]

Walton County is mandatory evacuation zones A,B and C, I live in a zone B should i try to ride it out?

Did you just say your zone has mandatory evacuations and then follow up by asking if you should stay?

If you decide to stay, and the sort of surge they say could happen does indeed happen, don't think you can call 911 and they will come save you. They aren't going to put themselves in danger. Your choice of course, but I sure wouldn't stay.

That's what I was thinking too. If you're in a mandatory evacuation area then there's a reason for it. People living near the beach and in flood zones should always be prepared to leave..it's just part of living there. Go listen to the 911 calls during Ivan and Katrina. It's not fair to expect emergency crews to risk their lives to save people that were warned well ahead of time.

[NDG]

Wow, even 80+ knot winds at flight level on the southern eyewall.

232400 2214N 08514W 6952 02999 9793 +142 +107 281077 082 059 001 00
232430 2212N 08514W 6962 02998 9804 +140 +108 275079 080 064 004 00
232500 2210N 08514W 6951 03022 9844 +115 //// 272077 080 062 006 01

[Nimbus]

86 kt FL, 74 kt SFMR. Pressure 968mb.

Will be a cat 2 hurricane soon thats a 10 mb drop since last recon.