ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Kermit jusr measured 970.3 mb extrap.
They are flying at 750 mb.
Maybe sniffing for early signs of a EWRC

[GCANE]

Dewpoint was higher on this pass thru the eye.
Signs of a EWRC developing.

[Abdullah]

I sometimes like to believe the reason Florida and the Yucatan exist are to keep storms from getting into the heart of the GOM. Sometimes the two peninsulas fail. This is one of those times.

[chaser1]

With the intense convection in the western semicircle, I would expect more wobbles to the west soon.

Yep, that's sensible

[Hurricane Andrew]

Now would not be a good time for an EWRC, as it would likely finish just as Mike is entering the best area for intensification.

[Ritzcraker]

Looks like eyewall is attempting to wrap around now

[Jag95]

Do you guys think the track could shift east or west at 11PM advisory

Expect minimal shifts. Doesn't really impact the evacuation order you are under at the moment.

Yeah I wouldn't expect much of a shift. The models are pretty locked in and the NHC is getting pretty good in the 48-72 hr window. There's some synoptic data being entered in the 0Z runs but I still don't think it'll shift much.

[EquusStorm]

Not sure how much time it'd have to finish an ERC if it's one of those interrupted extended ones we've seen, but if it's a quick one, might have some issues with it ramping up over the NE Gulf before the less favorable conditions ahead of the front temper it a bit

[cheezyWXguy]

2 more towers in the last couple minutes on the eastern semicircle, each approaching -90C. might be a real chance for Michael to close off an eyewall here.

[SunnyThoughts]

I think the only changes that may happen could be the fact that the NE turn that is to occur when close to landfall could happen 6 hours earlier, or 6 hours later, which would perhaps put one area on the East side of the storm as opposed to the west side. That could make quite a difference if He isn't symmetric in organization.

[DestinHurricane]

Do you guys think the track could shift east or west at 11PM advisory

Expect minimal shifts. Doesn't really impact the evacuation order you are under at the moment.

Yeah I wouldn't expect much of a shift. The models are pretty locked in and the NHC is getting pretty good in the 48-72 hr window. There's some synoptic data being entered in the 0Z runs but I still don't think it'll shift much.

I'm talking small shifts under 30 miles will make a difference for me.

[GCANE]

Drop 27, ahead of Micheal,
Air is moist all the way to 300mb
Outflow at 250mb
Basically no directional shear.

[SconnieCane]

Not sure why people are already calling EWRC when it hasn't really even finalized its first proper eyewall yet.

[Steve]

Best to y’all Dean.

[wxman57]

Not sure why people are already calling EWRC when it hasn't really even finalized its first proper eyewall yet.

Exactly what I was thinking. It needs a well-defined eyewall before an EWRC. Looks on-track tonight. Everything is zeroing in on Panama City. ETA Wednesday afternoon. Even the EC has come around to a Wed PM timing (was Thursday).

[PavelGaborik10]

Kermit jusr measured 970.3 mb extrap.
They are flying at 750 mb.
Maybe sniffing for early signs of a EWRC

Has the eyewall even managed to close off yet?

[HurricaneRyan]

Isn't there a loop eddy ahead of Michael?

[cheezyWXguy]

Not sure why people are already calling EWRC when it hasn't really even finalized its first proper eyewall yet.

This is something that can be identified when satellite imagery or recon find evidence of concentric partial eyewalls, or a double-wind maximum. Concentric partial eyewalls are definitely possible in hurricanes that are struggling to either maintain or develop an inner core. Florence showed signs of this while its intensity declined on its approach to the Carolinas. Ike in the gulf, or Isabel approaching the east coast are also good examples of hurricanes that began new ERCs before the current one was even completed, due to dry air entrainment, resulting in 3 concentric partial eyewalls at times.

[drewschmaltz]

In a strengthening hurricane, the developing eye may have an increasing dewpoint but an ever greater increased temperature resulting in lower relative humidity along the eyewall.

I don't actually know if this is true. It just sounded good.

[GCANE]

Kermit jusr measured 970.3 mb extrap.
They are flying at 750 mb.
Maybe sniffing for early signs of a EWRC

Has the eyewall even managed to close off yet?

VDM coming shorhty.
"Early" signs of a EWRC.
Not saying one is starting now.

Recon runs at 700mb when they are looking for an ERWC.
One criteria they look for is a rising dew point in the eye at 700mb.