ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 0:55Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2018
Storm Name: Michael (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 14 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )

A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 0:14:46Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22.73N 85.18W
B. Center Fix Location: 98 statute miles (157 km) to the WNW (283°) from Pinar del Río, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 973mb (28.74 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 50° at 8kts (From the NE at 9mph)
F. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the south
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 69kts (79.4mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (129°) of center fix at 0:10:12Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 219° at 86kts (From the SW at 99.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 0:09:13Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 67kts (77.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the NW (313°) of center fix at 0:18:29Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 61° at 68kts (From the ENE at 78.3mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NW (312°) of center fix at 0:19:32Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,459m (8,068ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

[BobHarlem]

Isn't this just an eyewall formation? What's there to replace?

[J_J99]

Kermit jusr measured 970.3 mb extrap.
They are flying at 750 mb.
Maybe sniffing for early signs of a EWRC

Has the eyewall even managed to close off yet?

VDM coming shorhty.
"Early" signs of a EWRC.
Not saying one is starting now.

Recon runs at 700mb when they are looking for an ERWC.
One criteria they look for is a rising dew point in the eye at 700mb.

This is not your typical recon mission, they are assessing the intensity structure of the storm, and flying at 700 mb is not necessarily them sniffing out an EWRC.

Plus how can you have an EWRC without having a clear cut eye form in the first place?

[Abdullah]

Mission #7 just got a pass of 969 mB.

[GCANE]

[MississippiWx]

We have yet to see Michael achieve a complete eye wall. It’s amazing that despite this, he is already down to 970mb. I believe this shows the potential of Michael when/if he completes his eye wall.

[vbhoutex]

Expect minimal shifts. Doesn't really impact the evacuation order you are under at the moment.

Yeah I wouldn't expect much of a shift. The models are pretty locked in and the NHC is getting pretty good in the 48-72 hr window. There's some synoptic data being entered in the 0Z runs but I still don't think it'll shift much.

I'm talking small shifts under 30 miles will make a difference for me.

Please do not second guess the authorities! If you are under an evac order please do it. We have members all over the area and I urge everyone to do as the authorities ask!! It is always better to be safe than sorry!! I've been on the Gulf Coast from Pensacola to Houston for 64 years. I've been through more TCs than I can count and I will never second guess the authorities. Some of our most long standing members are leaving the threatened areas. I urge everyone included in the evac orders to do the same! Lives can not be replaced, material possessions can!! Yes I know you all know this, but it is the absolute truth that too many try to beat and don't always win!!

[Nimbus]

Still hasn't pulled away from Cuba far enough for symmetric inflow, but by morning this isn't going to look very pleasant.

[cycloneye]

NDG,looks like all is good with Cuba as plane is flying close and above.

[jlauderdal]

Isn't there a loop eddy ahead of Michael?

There is a very warm gom ahead with minimal shear..good luck to whoever is inside if 40 miles from landfall...good roof straps and all windows covered are in order

[NDG]

The day into the night has been very tropical outside, with continuing squally wx moving through here in the Orlando area, breezy at times. There's definitely a feel to the air that there's a hurricane out there, birds were not singing today.

[NDG]

NDG,looks like all is good with Cuba as plane is flying close and above.

Yes, I noticed that a few minutes ago, I wonder if it is because is a NOAA plane and not an AF plane.

[Ritzcraker]

Isn't there a loop eddy ahead of Michael?

There is a very warm gom ahead with minimal shear..good luck to whoever is inside if 40 miles from landfall...good roof straps and all windows covered are in order

Oceanic Heat Content shows that while there is a loop eddy ahead of Michael there are (relatively) colder waters past that.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not an EWRC -- no sign of a double-wind maximum on recon -- Michael's just restructuring itself after slight shear/interaction with Cuba.

[jlauderdal]

Isn't there a loop eddy ahead of Michael?

There is a very warm gom ahead with minimal shear..good luck to whoever is inside if 40 miles from landfall...good roof straps and all windows covered are in order

Oceanic Heat Content shows that while there is a loop eddy ahead of Michael there are (relatively) colder waters past that.

Plenty off quality water in the gulf thus the nhc landfall forecast, i wouldnt be surprised if its a category too high

[Kazmit]

Isn't there a loop eddy ahead of Michael?

There is a very warm gom ahead with minimal shear..good luck to whoever is inside if 40 miles from landfall...good roof straps and all windows covered are in order

Oceanic Heat Content shows that while there is a loop eddy ahead of Michael there are (relatively) colder waters past that.

https://imgur.com/lyrbUsK

Cooler, yes, but not anywhere close to "cool". Definitely enough to sustain a major hurricane.

[drezee]

Not vertically stacked

[Gums]

Salute!

I am not gonna discourage anyone from leaving. OTOH, ya gotta know when to hold'em and know when to fold'em.

Without experiencing frequent storms of various magnitudes, it's hard to make a good decision. Prolly need a separate thread to talk about all the considerations, but I made a previous post.. My son went thru Wilma way over in Broward Cty and had a fence go down. He gave up after three days without electricity at home and at work and drove up here to the Panhandle and "worked from home" on my 'net.

So unless you are right on the water or back in a bay at 5 feet MSL, then your biggest problem is usually electricity. Wind is a big problem if you are in the upper right quadrant of a storm, and that's what we went thru in Erin and Opal back in 1995 Dennis, too, but not so bad. All the disaster pictures are of places low and very close to the water with incoming wind and waves. Homestead was the big exception.
+++++++++++++++++
The biggie if the storm peters out is INSURANCE coverage. No kidding. My folks could not get re-imbursed for leaving home after Katrina made their place unliveable. The county had not declared "mandatory evacuation". Did they have to leave? Nope. Lotta trees down, but no water due to their location. But if the county had declared a mandatory evacuation the insurance company would have paid them for motels and such for several months.

I'll post during the storm as long as my ISP works or cell data works. Should be about 40 or 50 miles west of the impact unless it shifts more westward. Will be a big wind event, and no water due to my 60 feet elevation.

Gums sends...

[pcolaman]

It looks like the nnw movement might be trying to occur.

[NDG]

102 knot flight level winds!!!!!!!!

01:20:00Z 23.117N 84.983W 733.0 mb
(~ 21.65 inHg) 2,544 meters
(~ 8,346 feet) 983.1 mb
(~ 29.03 inHg) - From 148° at 100 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 115.1 mph) 12.3°C*
(~ 54.1°F*) -* 102 knots
(~ 117.4 mph)