ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

What was tge previous max fl ?

[skufful]

Why are the updates at 7, 10, 1, 4, etc. instead of 8, 11, 2, 5, etc.? At least that’s what I seem to remember the times to be. Sorry in advance if this has been asked and answered.

[chaser1]

Let me repeat this again, 102 knot flight level winds found by recon on the NE eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/OrIeh6U.png

And that's from a sloppy storm, against a westerly shear without a well defined eye in October. Thank heaven conditions arn't ideal.

[pcolaman]

Looking like a powerful storm now. Beautiful!!!
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... orbar=acht

[Hammy]

Why are the updates at 7, 10, 1, 4, etc. instead of 8, 11, 2, 5, etc.? At least that’s what I seem to remember the times to be. Sorry in advance if this has been asked and answered.

Central time I believe. They put something into place (I think last year) that the advisories would be listed in local time.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Let me repeat this again, 102 knot flight level winds found by recon on the NE eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/OrIeh6U.png

And that's from a sloppy storm, against a westerly shear without a well defined eye in October. Thank heaven conditions arn't ideal.

I'm not sure where this talk of this being a "sloppy" storm is coming from. Visually and structurally, this is a very impressive storm having been a hurricane for less than 24-hours.

[DestinHurricane]

Why are the updates at 7, 10, 1, 4, etc. instead of 8, 11, 2, 5, etc.? At least that’s what I seem to remember the times to be. Sorry in advance if this has been asked and answered.

They are at 8 11 2 5 for eastern time so an hour before for central time

[ObsessedMiami]

So what happened to all the rain in the Miami forecast? Forecast had called for 60% rain through Thursday, now down to 30% all days. Did the intensification of Michael pull those bands back toward the core?

[skufful]

Why are the updates at 7, 10, 1, 4, etc. instead of 8, 11, 2, 5, etc.? At least that’s what I seem to remember the times to be. Sorry in advance if this has been asked and answered.

Central time I believe. They put something into place (I think last year) that the advisories would be listed in local time.

Thanks, so do they switch when it changes time zones? LOL

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Fascinating storm. I see similarities with Opal, and it worries me more to think that Michael has more time over water due to its slower movement. Regardless of shifts, regardless of changes in intensity forecasts---this storm must be taken seriously. I'm no met, but a major hurricane is likely, which concurs with the NHC forecast. Expect the worst, hope for the best. Moreover, Michael could be stricken off the naming lists.

[hurricaneCW]

He'll never be the prettiest storm but that doesn't matter, it'll still pack a wallop.

However due to slightly unfavorable upper level conditions, it's unlikely to get stronger than 120-125 mph. Still thinking it'll be 100mph at landfall.

[gfsperpendicular]

Why are the updates at 7, 10, 1, 4, etc. instead of 8, 11, 2, 5, etc.? At least that’s what I seem to remember the times to be. Sorry in advance if this has been asked and answered.

Central time I believe. They put something into place (I think last year) that the advisories would be listed in local time.

Thanks, so do they switch when it changes time zones? LOL

I think it's just bc of daylight savings, the advisors are always at the same intervals in gmt

[SeaBrz_FL]

The day into the night has been very tropical outside, with continuing squally wx moving through here in the Orlando area, breezy at times. There's definitely a feel to the air that there's a hurricane out there, birds were not singing today.

https://i.imgur.com/ebbBbyp.jpg

Same over here on the east coast, but i’m not sure if it’s early Mike bands or the low to our east. Pleasantly breezy though.

[pcolaman]

Really wrapping up now. Looks like a doughnut . On the goes 16 you can see the black lines being wrapped around super fast !!

[Frank P]

Looks like he is definitely moving NNW now... at least on the IR loops

[NDG]

What was tge previous max fl ?

I'm thinking that the message was transmitted before they recorded those 100+ knot fl level winds.

[chaser1]

Let me repeat this again, 102 knot flight level winds found by recon on the NE eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/OrIeh6U.png

And that's from a sloppy storm, against a westerly shear without a well defined eye in October. Thank heaven conditions arn't ideal.

I'm not sure where this talk of this being a "sloppy" storm is coming from. Visually and structurally, this is a very impressive storm having been a hurricane for less than 24-hours.

Not meaning to hurt Michael's feelings; Perhaps he didn't hear. Unsteady eye feature, west quad restricted outflow, open eye wall. Don't get me wrong, I like the kid - he's got gutz and he's shedding millibars like no one's business. He's gonna be a contender, this one is!

[Hammy]

Recon data looks like it supports at least 80kt with the 102kt flight winds and 78kt SFMR.

[NDG]

Never mind, it looks like they are not going with the 102 knot flight level winds recorded, I guess it was suspicious.

000
URNT12 KNHC 090152
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/00:53:50Z
B. 22.87 deg N 085.25 deg W
C. 700 mb 2867 m
D. 974 mb
E. NA
F. OPEN W
G. E36/40/30
H. 69 kt
I. 313 deg 10 nm 00:51:00Z
J. 062 deg 74 kt
K. 321 deg 19 nm 00:48:30Z
L. 72 kt
M. 133 deg 18 nm 00:59:30Z
N. 218 deg 85 kt
O. 133 deg 23 nm 01:01:00Z
P. 9 C / 3047 m
Q. 17 C / 3044 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 0714A MICHAEL OB 03
MAX FL WIND 85 KT 133 / 23 NM 01:01:00Z

I just noticed that the VDM is from the AF recon not the NOAA plane that found the 102 fl level winds in the NE Quadrant.

[tolakram]