ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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MGC
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1221 Postby MGC » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:24 pm

Hurricane Michael should continue to intensify through the night. Upper level environment looks favorable. Expect the eyewall to close off tonight, this could lead to more significant intensification tomorrow. Michael should reach cat 3 level and even flirt with cat 4...MGC
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1222 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:25 pm

Anyone have a good explanation for the convective bursting pattern so far? My guess is a bit of struggle with dry air, but wouldn’t swear to it.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1223 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:25 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
And that's from a sloppy storm, against a westerly shear without a well defined eye in October. Thank heaven conditions arn't ideal.


I'm not sure where this talk of this being a "sloppy" storm is coming from. Visually and structurally, this is a very impressive storm having been a hurricane for less than 24-hours.


Not meaning to hurt Michael's feelings; Perhaps he didn't hear. Unsteady eye feature, west quad restricted outflow, open eye wall. Don't get me wrong, I like the kid - he's got gutz and he's shedding millibars like no one's business. He's gonna be a contender, this one is!


Let's hope he didn't hear you, lol.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1224 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:27 pm

Dropsonde from the NOAA Recon over the NE quadrant confirms the 102+ knot flight level winds. Still waiting for the VDM from the NOAA recon.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1225 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:30 pm

Oood evening everyone!!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1226 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:32 pm

northjaxpro wrote:Oood evening everyone!!


Happy Dropsonde!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1227 Postby HurricaneIrma » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:38 pm

Hey Michael are you planning to make a run for a CAT5 and not tell nobody?????
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1228 Postby CFLHurricane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:43 pm

HurricaneIrma wrote:Hey Michael are you planning to make a run for a CAT5 and not tell nobody?????


I would’ve thought a common name like Michael would’ve been retired already. I guess this year is going to be it.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1229 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:45 pm

Huge "wall" of dry air to the west, hopefully it'll stall out any strengthening.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1230 Postby BYG Jacob » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:46 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Huge "wall" of dry air to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/pPC3771.jpg

That might be the best Michael has looked so far.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1231 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:47 pm

Michsel I believe has a real good chance still to achieve Category 3 status if he can tighten that inner core just a bit more..
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1232 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:48 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Huge "wall" of dry air to the west, hopefully it'll stall out any strengthening.

https://i.imgur.com/pPC3771.jpg


So far it has not affected it as it has continued to strengthened, by the time it might affect it will probable be right before making landfall.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1233 Postby Hammy » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:50 pm

Just a reminder to anyone who doesn't think Michael can reach Cat 3 in the shape it's in, this reached Cat 2 looking like a borderline frontal system.

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1234 Postby DestinHurricane » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:51 pm

comparable to Kate 1985
Last edited by DestinHurricane on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Michael 2018

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1235 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:52 pm

Yeah. The pattern reversal did wonders. Upper conditions should be better still in the next 24 hours if you ask me. This will be formidable but as far as how many people are affected in a big way will depend on where it hits.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1236 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:55 pm

No update yet, think they will wait for the AF plane to get to the center?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1237 Postby MetroMike » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:56 pm

CFLHurricane wrote:
HurricaneIrma wrote:Hey Michael are you planning to make a run for a CAT5 and not tell nobody?????


I would’ve thought a common name like Michael would’ve been retired already. I guess this year is going to be it.

The name Michael has only been used 3 times in the past. Latest being 2012. Didn't do much then.
My namesake IS looking good tonight.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1238 Postby tropicwatch » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:57 pm

panamatropicwatch wrote:No update yet, think they will wait for the AF plane to get to the center?

Nevermind
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1239 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:58 pm

.MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
Last edited by NDG on Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1240 Postby Michele B » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:58 pm

Gums wrote:Salute!

I am not gonna discourage anyone from leaving. OTOH, ya gotta know when to hold'em and know when to fold'em.

Without experiencing frequent storms of various magnitudes, it's hard to make a good decision. Prolly need a separate thread to talk about all the considerations, but I made a previous post.. My son went thru Wilma way over in Broward Cty and had a fence go down. He gave up after three days without electricity at home and at work and drove up here to the Panhandle and "worked from home" on my 'net.

So unless you are right on the water or back in a bay at 5 feet MSL, then your biggest problem is usually electricity. Wind is a big problem if you are in the upper right quadrant of a storm, and that's what we went thru in Erin and Opal back in 1995 Dennis, too, but not so bad. All the disaster pictures are of places low and very close to the water with incoming wind and waves. Homestead was the big exception.
+++++++++++++++++
The biggie if the storm peters out is INSURANCE coverage. No kidding. My folks could not get re-imbursed for leaving home after Katrina made their place unliveable. The county had not declared "mandatory evacuation". Did they have to leave? Nope. Lotta trees down, but no water due to their location. But if the county had declared a mandatory evacuation the insurance company would have paid them for motels and such for several months.

I'll post during the storm as long as my ISP works or cell data works. Should be about 40 or 50 miles west of the impact unless it shifts more westward. Will be a big wind event, and no water due to my 60 feet elevation.

Gums sends...


Yes, I think most people talk about preparation for before a storm blows in - BUT, almost always neglects to PREPARE folks for the AFTERMATH!

It's quite unpleasant to live without electricity (for those of us who enjoy living WITH it normally!). The idea of NOT being able to cook, bathe normally (unless you're weird and normally take cold showers!), cannot clean when you are working to clean up the yard, and all your clothes are grungy.....

Cannot use ONLY paper plates and plastic. Cannot really heat your food without dirtying dishes/pots and pans that then need cleaning - IN COLD WATER!!! Things just don't seem to be clean....and nothing works (no elec). It's a major inconvenience.....

The storm blowing by is the least of it.....imho
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