ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Extratropical94]

From latest VDM. Might not be as organized as we think he is.

EYEWALL ONLY COVERS 40% OF EYE. IT IS CIRCULAR IN SHAPE WITH DIAMETER OF 25NM.

[Hurricaneman]

From latest VDM. Might not be as organized as we think he is.

EYEWALL ONLY COVERS 40% OF EYE. IT IS CIRCULAR IN SHAPE WITH DIAMETER OF 25NM.

Looks quite a bit better on satellite but recon radar is telling another story

[N2FSU]

NHC shifted back east about 25 miles at 11pm

[tropicwatch]

NHC shifted back east about 25 miles at 11pm

I could handle that but pin point accuracy I take with a grain of salt.

[NotoSans]

Likely a case where the hurricane is not as strong as Dvorak indicates.

[HDGator]

NHC shifted back east about 25 miles at 11pm

You're track line looks straight. The one on NHC website is curved and still appears to be on PCB.
I don't think there was any intent to move it past 36 hours based on Stacy Stewart's Discussion. But I could be wrong.

[StPeteMike]

I’m not seeing the 12 mph forward speed, seems like it has almost stayed in the same location for the past hour or more. The NHC has it forecasted to be due west of Naples by 3 am and it’s not even west of Key West yet.

[StPeteMike]

I’m not seeing the 12 mph forward speed, seems like it has almost stayed in the same location for the past hour or more. The NHC has it forecasted to be due west of Naples by 3 am and it’s not even west of Key West yet.

Does seem like the eye wall reformation moved the center a little to the NNW

[HDGator]

I’m not seeing the 12 mph forward speed, seems like it has almost stayed in the same location for the past hour or more. The NHC has it forecasted to be due west of Naples by 3 am and it’s not even west of Key West yet.

Does seem like the eye wall reformation moved the center a little to the NNW

I've been watching it on radar out of Key West. You can just make out the eastern eyewall precipitation. It's been moving steady and pretty much on track since Cuba.
I think you're seeing the change in organization on the sat images that creates that perception. If the eye clears out, then the motion will be more apparent on sat.
I wouldn't be surprised to see it start taking shape tonight/this morning.

[DestinHurricane]

I just dont believe Walton County will be 6-9 foot storm surge, that would do significant damage to areas on the bay, last year during Nate we had about a little less that 3 feet of surge and some low lying areas were underwater. I didn't know there could be a big surge on the west side..

[MississippiWx]

Michael remains steady around 969mb. Shear and inner core issues have put the breaks on strengthening since this afternoon/evening. Let's hope this continues right through landfall, but it probably won't.

[Hammy]

Michael remains steady around 969mb. Shear and inner core issues have put the breaks on strengthening since this afternoon/evening. Let's hope this continues right through landfall, but it probably won't.

I believe it's going over the point of lowest ocean heat content in the Gulf as well at the moment.

[meriland29]

[Hurricaneman]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/last24hrs.gif

As can be seen with microwave it looks like Cuba damaged the structure of Michael

[CrazyC83]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/last24hrs.gif

As can be seen with microwave it looks like Cuba damaged the structure of Michael

Yet, it's still at worst steady-state even with the structural degradation...

[Ritzcraker]

Michael remains steady around 969mb. Shear and inner core issues have put the breaks on strengthening since this afternoon/evening. Let's hope this continues right through landfall, but it probably won't.

I believe it's going over the point of lowest ocean heat content in the Gulf as well at the moment.

I commented on this earlier. The low oceanic heat content should have a negative effect on any strengthening in the short term.

[ConvergenceZone]

Michael remains steady around 969mb. Shear and inner core issues have put the breaks on strengthening since this afternoon/evening. Let's hope this continues right through landfall, but it probably won't.

I believe it's going over the point of lowest ocean heat content in the Gulf as well at the moment.

I commented on this earlier. The low oceanic heat content should have a negative effect on any strengthening in the short term.

Maybe in the super-shorterm, but as the weather channel just said, the satellite photos are showing it looking better and better and should EASILY become a major tomorrow

[N2FSU]

NHC shifted back east about 25 miles at 11pm

I could handle that but pin point accuracy I take with a grain of salt.

agreed

[sponger]

Guess I am stuck waiting for the Euro.

[Condor]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/last24hrs.gif

As can be seen with microwave it looks like Cuba damaged the structure of Michael

I mean there wasnt much structure there to begin with. 24 hours ago we were looking at a tropical storm.