sponger wrote:Guess I am stuck waiting for the Euro.
what time does it run
ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
what time does it run
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Michael 2018
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
DestinHurricane wrote:sponger wrote:Guess I am stuck waiting for the Euro.
what time does it run
2:00
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DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:DestinHurricane wrote:sponger wrote:Guess I am stuck waiting for the Euro.
what time does it run
2:00
Eastern time?
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Michael 2018
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Yep, running now. Initialized at 984 millibars.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00900&fh=0
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00900&fh=0
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Ritzcraker
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:Yep, running now. Initialized at 984 millibars.
Seems too weak...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Just a bit!
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Ritzcraker
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
I thought the data from the recon flights had been ingested into the model. I wonder why its initializing 10mb weaker.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
I learned from IRMA you have to get to bed before 1:00 to avoid getting trapped by model anticipation. 12:30 is even better.
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Ritzcraker
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
00z EURO is faster...
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Hurrilurker
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:Yep, running now. Initialized at 984 millibars.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00900&fh=0
NOAA estimates 970-974 already and that was hours ago, so this is a weird init.
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Craters
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Condor wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:
As can be seen with microwave it looks like Cuba damaged the structure of Michael
I mean there wasnt much structure there to begin with. 24 hours ago we were looking at a tropical storm.
Apparently, as with people and just about everything else in this universe (including yours truly), looks aren't everything.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Cat 3 at land fall!
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Condor
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
LOCATION...23.6N 85.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
Looks like the pressure went up a tad ?
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES
Looks like the pressure went up a tad ?
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Condor
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
sponger wrote:Cat 3 at land fall!
It will be a ferocious Cat indeed
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks a lot less stacked than a few hours ago. I was thinking water temps, but it looks like the shear is increasing quite a bit.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Looks a lot less stacked than a few hours ago. I was thinking water temps, but it looks like the shear is increasing quite a bit.
Amazed it held up this long. Unfortunately, lessening shear and warmer temps will allow for steady strengthening tomorrow.
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Condor
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Looks a lot less stacked than a few hours ago. I was thinking water temps, but it looks like the shear is increasing quite a bit.
Is that what you are seeing here ? Looks like the shear has been decreasing. An the the mid level shear is primed and favorable?
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=-1
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hurricaneCW
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Models are back to showing this peaking right before landfall, which would be awful. Hopefully they're wrong but if it managed to strengthen and hold up with 20 knots of shear, then it'll have no issues when shear drops to 10 knots or less 12-18 hrs before landfall.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Looks a lot less stacked than a few hours ago. I was thinking water temps, but it looks like the shear is increasing quite a bit.
Looks to me like the center is back under the strong convection, may actually help tighten up that inner core. Needs close watching still!
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Condor
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
KWT wrote:Hammy wrote:Looks a lot less stacked than a few hours ago. I was thinking water temps, but it looks like the shear is increasing quite a bit.
Looks to me like the center is back under the strong convection, may actually help tighten up that inner core. Needs close watching still!
Thats what im seeing currently from IR
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