ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

More symmetrical eyewall on IR.
Hopefully, next VDM will clear the mystery.

[GCANE]

Spoke too soon.
Still no comment on eye characteristics.

[GCANE]

75 mm/hr rain rate!

[tolakram]

Probably waiting for daylight to get eyewall characteristics.

[GCANE]

Drop 16.
Air nearly saturated, mid-level to surface.
So far, not entraining any dry air.

[Nimbus]

Dry air still along the west side:

https://i.imgur.com/P3vF3pK.jpg

Still not getting entrained in the system.

Will need an EWRC before any dry air will get into the core since the shear is relatively light.

[GCANE]

Probably waiting for daylight to get eyewall characteristics.

I'll really liked it when they were posting their live radar last year.
Wish they were doing it now.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 968mb, expect winds to be brought up to 100 mph on the next advisory. IMO.

000
URNT12 KWBC 091103
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/10:40:04Z
B. 24.43 deg N 086.07 deg W
C. NA
D. 968 mb
E. 095 deg 04 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 90 kt
I. 068 deg 14 nm 10:36:31Z
J. 160 deg 100 kt
K. 074 deg 19 nm 10:35:27Z
L. 56 kt
M. 268 deg 22 nm 10:45:20Z
N. 011 deg 78 kt
O. 267 deg 17 nm 10:44:05Z
P. 14 C / 2468 m
Q. 19 C / 2458 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0914A MICHAEL OB 18
STRONG SPIRAL BANDING FROM SE TO NW
MAX FL WIND 100 KT 074 / 19 NM 10:35:27Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 267 / 16 NM FROM FL CNTR

[NDG]

Drop 16.
Air nearly saturated, mid-level to surface.
So far, not entraining any dry air.


http://i67.tinypic.com/vfxeo8.png

http://i67.tinypic.com/30uwi9t.png

Most important, there's no westerly mid level shear, the biggest killer of tropical systems.

[pcolaman]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... orbar=acht

[NotoSans]

VDM may possibly be wrong regarding the eye character since the latest microwave pass shows a well-defined, almost closed eyewall.

[eastcoastFL]

8am: 100mph

[tropicwatch]

pressure dropping, AF not to the center and reporting 965.9

[eastcoastFL]

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 86.1W
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

[NDG]

I think these windshear maps are wrong, there's no way Michael would have had this good satellite presentation if windshear would have been this bad of 25-30 knots over its coc, especially the mid level shear that it shows.

[weathermimmi]

two questions it looks to be going a tad more west than nnw do you think from the radar posts here???? and how large from end to end did they say it was?
My daughters is supposed to get married on the Gulf Saturday in Fort Walton Beach

[DestinHurricane]

two questions it looks to be going a tad more west than nnw do you think from the radar posts here???? and how large from end to end did they say it was?
My daughters is supposed to get married on the Gulf Saturday in Fort Walton Beach

It will be gone saturday

[eastcoastFL]

I think these windshear maps are wrong, there's no way Michael would have had this good satellite presentation if windshear would have been this bad of 25-30 knots over its coc, especially the mid level shear that it shows.

https://i.imgur.com/hpxt1PM.gif
https://i.imgur.com/fJFx1cA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/W6V081l.jpg

I agree. The nhc mentioned that last night as well.

[eastcoastFL]

two questions it looks to be going a tad more west than nnw do you think from the radar posts here???? and how large from end to end did they say it was?
My daughters is supposed to get married on the Gulf Saturday in Fort Walton Beach

Ts winds extend 195mi from the center

[pcolaman]

I think these windshear maps are wrong, there's no way Michael would have had this good satellite presentation if windshear would have been this bad of 25-30 knots over its coc, especially the mid level shear that it shows.

https://i.imgur.com/hpxt1PM.gif
https://i.imgur.com/fJFx1cA.gif
https://i.imgur.com/W6V081l.jpg

I agree. The nhc mentioned that last night as well.

Looks to me that the hurricane is expanding more to the west against the dryer air? How?