ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[KUEFC]

Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.

How do I view the EPS so early?

[LarryWx]

Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.

How do I view the EPS so early?

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

Choose Gulf and also compare to the prior run at the bottom of the page. You'll clearly see a SE shift and stronger members.

[LarryWx]

Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.

How do I view the EPS so early?

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

Choose Gulf and also compare to the prior run at the bottom of the page. You'll clearly see a SE shift and stronger members.

[KUEFC]

Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.

How do I view the EPS so early?

https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

Choose Gulf and also compare to the prior run at the bottom of the page. You'll clearly see a SE shift and stronger members.

Much more consensus amongst the members though with regard to target area

[northjaxpro]

There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

Yes a fairly decent south and east shift. Big Bend landfall.(Apalachicola and. eastward) is still possible.

[ronjon]

Global models all tightly clustered between Panama City and Apalachicola. Did notice the NAM 3 km and WRF mesoscale models are about 30-50 miles east of there. Not sure it means much at this point.

[NDG]

Latest 06z GFS and 0z Euro are in very good agreement on location and timing of landfall. Cannot get any better than this, both also forecast the pressure to drop to the 930s mb before landfall.

[chaser1]

Okay, a little NAM humor. 12Z high res 3K NAM now trending much weaker then prior runs for 0Z this evening. Now, it projects Michael to "only" be down to 945 mb (instead of the 899mb - 914mb projected over recent prior runs lol). On a more serious note however, the high res NAM has been trending ever so slightly more eastward in recent runs.

[ronjon]

HRRR high resolution model.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018100912&fh=17

[p1nheadlarry]

Okay, a little NAM humor. 12Z high res 3K NAM now trending much weaker then prior runs for 0Z this evening. Now, it projects Michael to "only" be down to 945 mb (instead of the 899mb - 914mb projected over recent prior runs lol). On a more serious note however, the high res NAM has been trending ever so slightly more eastward in recent runs.

Obviously not a tool meant for the tropics without the ocean coupling, but how is it on cyclone track? I would guess poorly.

[chaser1]

Okay, a little NAM humor. 12Z high res 3K NAM now trending much weaker then prior runs for 0Z this evening. Now, it projects Michael to "only" be down to 945 mb (instead of the 899mb - 914mb projected over recent prior runs lol). On a more serious note however, the high res NAM has been trending ever so slightly more eastward in recent runs.

Obviously not a tool meant for the tropics without the ocean coupling, but how is it on cyclone track? I would guess poorly.

Not so sure; generally I don't use it for actual tropical cyclone guidance but i'd guess that there might be greater value in it's capacity to formulate near term track then intensity. More-so, I tend to look at the NAM as another perspective with regard to gauging the broader picture so seeing a track tendency shift one way or another might have some merit when taken into account with other more reliable models

[p1nheadlarry]

Okay, a little NAM humor. 12Z high res 3K NAM now trending much weaker then prior runs for 0Z this evening. Now, it projects Michael to "only" be down to 945 mb (instead of the 899mb - 914mb projected over recent prior runs lol). On a more serious note however, the high res NAM has been trending ever so slightly more eastward in recent runs.

Obviously not a tool meant for the tropics without the ocean coupling, but how is it on cyclone track? I would guess poorly.

Not so sure; generally I don't use it for actual tropical cyclone guidance but i'd guess that there might be greater value in it's capacity to formulate near term track then intensity. More-so, I tend to look at the NAM as another perspective with regard to gauging the broader picture so seeing a track tendency shift one way or another might have some merit when taken into account with other more reliable models

Might handle the trough fairly well too

[bella_may]

I noticed most of the models shifted slightly east overnight, except for the CMC which now takes it right over Pensacola instead of Destin

[Ken711]

I noticed most of the models shifted slightly east overnight, except for the CMC which now takes it right over Pensacola instead of Destin

Latest NHC track is slightly west (perhaps 10 miles) from their previous update.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z FV3 is now near the consensus and much slower. Just 5 runs ago it was near Atlanta as of 8PM EDT tomorrow. Now it is near where AL, FL, and GA come together at 8PM tomorrow! I know the CMC has struggled. But the FV3 hasn’t done well either.

[bella_may]

The new HMON has some really impressive feeder bands wrapping around the west side

[DestinHurricane]

[FLpanhandle91]

12z euro slight shift west. Looks to be agreeing with NHC and GFS now.

[ColdMiser123]

Landfall tomorrow evening on the Euro, shortly after 4 PM CDT near Panama City. 934.

[FLpanhandle91]

Landfall tomorrow evening on the Euro, shortly after 4 PM CDT near Panama City. 934.

https://i.imgur.com/7EFdqlT.png

Nightmare run for Panama City. Simulated Euro IR shows a pretty fair bit of convection on the west side of the storm.