ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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NDG
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1461 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:39 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:
NDG wrote:105 knots on the NOAA recon penetrating the eye right now.

105 knots
(~ 120.8 mph)
FL


Oops, forgot to include the word flight level. Thanks.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1462 Postby JaxGator » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:41 am

Michael is definitely strengthening now. Despite temporary dry air intrusions, I don't think much is going to stop it. I'm glad people on near and at Panama City are evacuating and taking this seriously. Tyndall Air Force Base is under mandatory evacuation for all personnel. They're close to/on the coast.
Last edited by JaxGator on Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1463 Postby bella_may » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:43 am

Looks to be moving nw to me
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1464 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:45 am

Drop 25: Air nearly saturated surface to tropopause.
Other inner circle drops show good moisture surface to upper levels.

Likely the northern eyewall will be firing the strongest due to most unstable / higher theta-e air ahead.

Might get more symmetrical once CoC gets over the Loop Current this afternoon and WISHE will be coming in from all directions.


Image

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1465 Postby Laser30033003 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:46 am

movement look to me to be N to NNE...per the last few frames.... Probably just a wobble
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1466 Postby crimi481 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:48 am

Last few frames - nne movement (the white blob area around center.) could be start of n.e. turn
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =ir-dvorak
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1467 Postby edu2703 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:48 am

10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9
Location: 25.0°N 86.2°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1468 Postby seahawkjd » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:48 am

10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9
Location: 25.0°N 86.2°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
Max sustained: 110 mph
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1469 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:48 am

Latest VDM from Noaa recon.

000
URNT12 KWBC 091439
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/14:23:24Z
B. 24.91 deg N 086.27 deg W
C. NA
D. EXTRAP 968 mb
E. NA
F. OPEN W-SW
G. C30
H. 85 kt
I. 078 deg 20 nm 14:18:10Z
J. 171 deg 105 kt
K. 078 deg 22 nm 14:17:39Z
L. 87 kt
M. 044 deg 19 nm 14:29:57Z
N. 139 deg 96 kt
O. 045 deg 23 nm 14:31:01Z
P. 15 C / 2468 m
Q. 20 C / 2469 m
R. 14 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 2 nm
U. NOAA2 0914A MICHAEL OB 42
SLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT PRESSURE ALTITUDE
MAX FL WIND 105 KT 078 / 22 NM 14:17:39Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 090 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1470 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:50 am

The planes actually passed through the eye around the same time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one another.


That bit from the advisory is fascinating
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1471 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:50 am

NHC is going with 110mph on the advisory.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1472 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:51 am

Looks like the 105kts FL combined with the 94kts dropsonde convinced the NHC to go with 95kts.

Looks steady state right now to me but it's got high winds aloft that may continue to drag down.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1473 Postby bella_may » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:51 am

Slight west shift on the new track
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1474 Postby La Sirena » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:53 am

bella_may wrote:Slight west shift on the new track

Could you post it?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1475 Postby meriland29 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:55 am

What was the initial intensity as per NHC last advisory ...wasnt it 110 mph as well?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1476 Postby meriland29 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:56 am

Any further west and Alabama is going to be that bullseye, and also have a hair bit longer over water into that bend.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1477 Postby bella_may » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:57 am

La Sirena wrote:
bella_may wrote:Slight west shift on the new track

Could you post it?

dont know how to post pics but here’s a link https://twitter.com/graceyweather/statu ... 11810?s=21
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1478 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:57 am

Guys and gals,
Keep in mind that centers will often times get "pulled" toward large convective events such as what has been occuring on Michael's northeast side all morning. CDO deep convection is now building west of the storm and center will appear to wobble back west soon. Because of this, NHC averages it out to a northern motion on the 10AM NHC advisory.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1479 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:58 am

bella_may wrote:Slight west shift on the new track


Maybe by 10 miles at the most.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1480 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:59 am

NDG wrote:
bella_may wrote:Slight west shift on the new track


Maybe by 10 miles at the most.


Significant implications in regard to densely populated Destin, however.
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