ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
ObsessedMiami
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 431
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:08 pm
Location: West Kendall, Fl

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1521 Postby ObsessedMiami » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:59 am

EquusStorm wrote:Went to Sopchoppy/Wakulla Springs on a youth retreat many years ago. Gorgeous area. Going to be one of their worse hits


My aunt who lives in the Bristol/Blountstown area says she isn't worried because the "national forest absorbs the worst winds". :double:
Last edited by ObsessedMiami on Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

LarryWx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6346
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1522 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:00 am

26.0N 85.6W 80 84 100/ 35/ 49 998.7

This buoy, which is just east of where the eye is headed, shows 84F or 29C SST, i.e., still bathwater/closer to norms of a month ago. It is this way all the way to the coast
Last edited by LarryWx on Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1523 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:00 am

Michael is trying really hard to completely clear the eye.

Image
3 likes   

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1524 Postby sponger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:03 am

[quote="NDG"]Michael is trying really hard to completely clear the eye.

Probably pop out right before dark.
1 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1525 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:04 am

here webcam from panama beach https://www.sandpiperbeacon.com/panama- ... /surf-cam/ and http://www.emeraldviewresorts.com/panam ... h-web-cam/ you see water raking over beach already still day alway
1 likes   

User avatar
sweetpea
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 858
Age: 58
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2005 5:49 pm
Location: Sopchoppy, FL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1526 Postby sweetpea » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:04 am

EquusStorm wrote:Went to Sopchoppy/Wakulla Springs on a youth retreat many years ago. Gorgeous area. Going to be one of their worse hits


My best friend lives right by Wakulla Springs. They are as prepped as they can be, saying prayers for everyone in their path.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3354
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1527 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:05 am

Dry air should be enough to prevent Michael from hitting 135+ knots, but considering that it's almost a major hurricane already despite 20 knots of wind shear, we may have to consider the possibility that Michael will make landfall as a Cat 4.
3 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1528 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:07 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Went to Sopchoppy/Wakulla Springs on a youth retreat many years ago. Gorgeous area. Going to be one of their worse hits


My aunt who lives in the Bristol/Blountstown area says she isn't worried because the "national forest absorbs the worst winds". :double:

tell her tree may not standing with that type wind you and your family need tell her this not joke tree wont save her may fell round her hope not on her home
2 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1529 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:12 am

NDG wrote:Michael is trying really hard to completely clear the eye.

https://i.imgur.com/RGoQK1x.gif


If you check other channels it's not really a true eye per say, it's dry air been entrained right into the core of Michael which is helping to clear out the center. Still impressive looking center regardless of how it formed.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

ATL: Michael Observations, NWS Warnings, Webcams, et al

#1530 Postby sponger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:18 am

Circulation seems quite vigorous.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145595
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1531 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:18 am

If there is some good news about Michael,is that it will not do like Harvey or Florence that moved very slowly. This will move fast so the rainfall amounts wont be too high.
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 20012
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1532 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:22 am

If you look at the visible you can see the wispy higher level clouds moving away from the center is all quadrants, though the west side is limited. Without any significant shear dry air should not be an issue once this batch mixes out, in my opinion. If you are in an evacuation zone stop waiting for 'proof' and just get out now.
7 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1533 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:23 am

cycloneye wrote:If there is some good news about Michael,is that it will not do like Harvey or Florence that moved very slowly. This will move fast so the rainfall amounts wont be too high.


Silver lining
0 likes   

otowntiger
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1921
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1534 Postby otowntiger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:30 am

cycloneye wrote:If there is some good news about Michael,is that it will not do like Harvey or Florence that moved very slowly. This will move fast so the rainfall amounts wont be too high.
Very true and you are right, that is good news. One bad thing about fast moving intense storms is that they bring very intense winds very far inland, which is why we are seeing areas like Dothan and even Albany get prepared to possibly see 100+ mph gusts.
1 likes   

psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4769
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1535 Postby psyclone » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:31 am

toad strangler wrote:
cycloneye wrote:If there is some good news about Michael,is that it will not do like Harvey or Florence that moved very slowly. This will move fast so the rainfall amounts wont be too high.


Silver lining


While a fast forward motion may mitigate a flood risk it also increases the inland wind threat so it's a pick your poison scenario. With a storm of this magnitude one way or another rent is going to be paid. I suspect a legacy of this storm will be a swath of significant wind damage well inland into areas usually exempt from such impacts. central and southern Georgia and perhaps southeast Alabama...get ready..
0 likes   

Socalhurcnegirl227
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 267
Age: 36
Joined: Mon Jun 06, 2016 6:39 pm
Location: Santa Barbara, CA

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1536 Postby Socalhurcnegirl227 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:31 am

ObsessedMiami wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Went to Sopchoppy/Wakulla Springs on a youth retreat many years ago. Gorgeous area. Going to be one of their worse hits


My aunt who lives in the Bristol/Blountstown area says she isn't worried because the "national forest absorbs the worst winds". :double:

there is so much stupidity in that thought process that im ar a loss of any wording other than i really hope she gets her head straight and gets somewhere safe.
0 likes   
"I'm a wandress, i'm a one night stand,
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1537 Postby floridasun78 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:32 am

few tv weather man that area talking about dryair
0 likes   

reds37win
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 8
Joined: Thu Aug 25, 2011 9:05 am
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1538 Postby reds37win » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:32 am

otowntiger wrote:
cycloneye wrote:If there is some good news about Michael,is that it will not do like Harvey or Florence that moved very slowly. This will move fast so the rainfall amounts wont be too high.
Very true and you are right, that is good news. One bad thing about fast moving intense storms is that they bring very intense winds very far inland, which is why we are seeing areas like Dothan and even Albany get prepared to possibly see 100+ mph gusts.


In Raleigh, we are expecting decent wind gusts, up to 60mph as the storm moves through and possibly 4"-6" of rain. The area south and east of Raleigh needs NONE of this.
2 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1539 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:32 am

Stormcenter wrote:Michael is moving NNNNW at the moment but should
begin a more northerly track and then NNE to NE
track. IMO


Once that inner core tightens and the eyewall completely closes, the turn north/northeast will commence. This will happen in the next 6-12 hours.

I think Michael will landfall just west of Apalachicola in the western end of the Big Bend region.

The storm surge I fear will be devastating in the region. It may end up being worst than the surge from the March 1993 Superstorm :(
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
meriland29
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 770
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:05 am

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1540 Postby meriland29 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:36 am

When is recons next mission into him
0 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests