ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

Wonder what the current intensity could have been if shear was lower than it currently is?

[supercane4867]

Current intensity only represents the highest sustained wind of a storm. It's not representitive of average windspeed in the eyewall as a whole. Recon may not find the highest winds in every pass, but dropping pressure indicates there's no signs of weakening at all.

[SunnyThoughts]

Big Truck is loaded for bear and I'm heading to Panama City from Houston.

Planning on a Cat 4 and have all the needed supplies.

Based on how quickly this formed and the many folks that deem it wise to stay in their homes on the coast I expect to see some not-so-pleasant things.

I do appreciate Storm2k this is the best site for informed opinions.

Thanks.

TAke care RAil dawg, thanks for all the help you provide to everyone in these situations. WAve to us here in Santa Rosa County as you roll on through. Godspeed and GL.

[otowntiger]

Big Truck is loaded for bear and I'm heading to Panama City from Houston.

Planning on a Cat 4 and have all the needed supplies.

Based on how quickly this formed and the many folks that deem it wise to stay in their homes on the coast I expect to see some not-so-pleasant things.

I do appreciate Storm2k this is the best site for informed opinions.

Thanks.

Hopefully you are already well on your way, since this guy is moving so fast it could beat you there. LOL!

[KWT]

Worth noting the last recon pass found 109kts FL and 90kts surface estimate at the same time in the eyewall on the way out.

[tolakram]

000
URNT12 KNHC 091709 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/16:37:40Z
B. 25.22 deg N 086.32 deg W
C. 700 mb 2806 m
D. 966 mb
E. 215 deg 17 kt
F. OPEN W
G. C30
H. 56 kt
I. 226 deg 18 nm 16:29:30Z
J. 292 deg 70 kt
K. 224 deg 9 nm 16:32:00Z
L. 90 kt
M. 053 deg 20 nm 16:43:00Z
N. 158 deg 109 kt
O. 053 deg 20 nm 16:43:00Z
P. 15 C / 3050 m
Q. 17 C / 3045 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF306 1014A MICHAEL OB 24 CCA
MAX FL WIND 109 KT 053 / 20 NM 16:43:00Z
;

[tolakram]

[supercane4867]

109kt FL equals to 98kt at surface using standard 0.9 reduction. A major at 5PM is certainly possible once those winds starts to mix down.

[northjaxpro]

Eyewall still not completely closed.off and Michael still steadily strengthening. Amazing!

[tropicwatch]

Parents have been convinced, bugging out. Busy and on the road for a couple of hours.

[supercane4867]

12 HWRF shows rapid deepening to 938mb at landfall. When the poleward outflow channel is fully established, a CAT4 is certainly possible.

[northjaxpro]

Parents have been convinced, bugging out. Busy and on the road for a couple of hours.

Good. Glad you are getting them out of harm's way. Michael is the real deal folks!!

[TexasSam]

[quote="tolakram"]Closeup visible loop.

Wow it has a eye now. no more wondering where the center is, or how many.

[KWT]

12 HWRF shows rapid deepening to 938mb at landfall. When the poleward outflow channel is fully established, a CAT4 is certainly possible.

Given how it's strengthened despite not having that impressive inner core setup, another 25mbs drop certainly sounds plausible, especially if it can eventually tighten the eyewall.

Convection is rotating nicely into the southern eyewall again.

[cheezyWXguy]

12 HWRF shows rapid deepening to 938mb at landfall. When the poleward outflow channel is fully established, a CAT4 is certainly possible.

What's interesting is, this isn't the only model to show it either. The most recent runs of the GFS, FV3, Euro, NAM, HWRF and HMON all show Michael reaching peak intensity in the final hours prior to landfall.

[xironman]

Big Truck is loaded for bear and I'm heading to Panama City from Houston.

Planning on a Cat 4 and have all the needed supplies.

Based on how quickly this formed and the many folks that deem it wise to stay in their homes on the coast I expect to see some not-so-pleasant things.

I do appreciate Storm2k this is the best site for informed opinions.

It should be intensifying on approach, so good choice. Obviously for anyone watching at home RD knows what he is doing. So do not attempt this.

[Gums]

Salute!

@socal Just what, if any, personal experience do you have riding out a storm in a forest that is so high it would take an asteroid hitting in the Gulf and a 300 foot tsunami that traveled 50 miles inland?

Not to diminish well-intended advice, but but I woukld hazard a guess that anyone over 60 that has lived in Wakulla or Blountstown has been thru worse during a thunderstorm or closeby tornado. Elevation there is above 50 or 60 feet, same as me and I am only 3 miles from Gulf and half mile from the bay north of Destin. It's the wind!!! Not the surge, and our biggest prep is getting ready for lack of electricity and not being able to drive ahalf mile to the "convenience" store..

The trees matter, both type and density. So away from the water, the biggie is wind and then loss of power afterwards.

The folks on Cape San Blas that choose to stay must not be "veterans", so Socal's advice is definitely warranted for that location and not simply because the governmnt issues an evacuation order. Remember they have to consider the weakest link and also the insurance policy that has a clause about "mandatory evacuation".. Take a drive down the highway using Google's street view. You could be looking at this by Thursday afternoon:



Sadly, San Blas was a paradise back 50 years ago, and virtually zero development - all government land. It still looked good into the 90's and early this century. As many storms I have weathered, none were below 40 or 50 feet and none right on the water facing the wind and surge. I would not stay on the peninsula there if they gave me money and the forecasts were even a little bit close.

We Panhandlers are still hoping for further east so the torment and misery affects less people, and most of them are vets.

Gums opines...

[abajan]

12 HWRF shows rapid deepening to 938mb at landfall. When the poleward outflow channel is fully established, a CAT4 is certainly possible.

"Possible"? I would actually be surprised were it not to be Cat 4 at landfall! I really hope people in harm's way are paying heed to the warnings.

[floridasun78]

their saying could worst opal

[KWT]

12 HWRF shows rapid deepening to 938mb at landfall. When the poleward outflow channel is fully established, a CAT4 is certainly possible.

"Possible"? I would actually be surprised were it not to be Cat 4 at landfall! I really hope people in harm's way are paying heed to the warnings.

Bear in mind acat-4 landfall in this part of the gulf is very rare, bit it's certainly possible.