ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

Well this burst maybe the one that really takes hold, it looks like the core is as good as I've seen it and the eye has really popped out nicely. Suspect the next set of recon missions find a major cane, pressure down into the 950s.

[EquusStorm]

Amazingly ominous eye development, especially since it has almost 24 more hours over the Gulf

[plasticup]

A bit of dry air sneaking in may interrupt things. It is pretty clear on the WV images:

[Airboy]

They are really flying a lot of the "air sampling" flights, doing everything they can to be able to predict a correct path I guess

[supercane4867]

Likely a CAT3 now

[tolakram]

I worry when we start talking categories. The Saffir Simpson scale can be both a help and a hindrance with these storms. The north coast has been hit with a couple of lopsided storms of late so everyone starts to expect the same thing over and over again. Confirmation bias creeps in and folks start looking for data to confirm their thoughts rather than taking an objective look at the conditions and the forecast.

[cycloneye]

Impressive GOES-16 loop.

 https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/1049720469434318848

[MJGarrison]

They are really flying a lot of the "air sampling" flights, doing everything they can to be able to predict a correct path I guess

I wonder how much the available budget factors into the decision to fly so many flights.


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[MississippiWx]

A bit of dry air sneaking in may interrupt things. It is pretty clear on the WV images:

https://i.imgur.com/D4o371a.png

Dry air has been there the whole time. Unless shear increases, it shouldn’t limit Michael too much.

[txwatcher91]

Well this burst maybe the one that really takes hold, it looks like the core is as good as I've seen it and the eye has really popped out nicely. Suspect the next set of recon missions find a major cane, pressure down into the 950s.

Latest Euro takes this from 978mb at 12z today to 940mb by landfall. It drops 38mb in 30 hours. Unreal and based on IR it's in the process of heading towards that.

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks the best it has so far to be certain. Interesting to see if the winds have increased

[MississippiWx]

Well this burst maybe the one that really takes hold, it looks like the core is as good as I've seen it and the eye has really popped out nicely. Suspect the next set of recon missions find a major cane, pressure down into the 950s.

Latest Euro takes this from 978mb at 12z today to 940mb by landfall. It drops 38mb in 30 hours. Unreal and based on IR it's in the process of heading towards that.

When global models are unanimous on this, it’s very worrisome.

[KWT]

Amazingly ominous eye development, especially since it has almost 24 more hours over the Gulf

Yeah very quick development once it mixed the dry air out. The eyewall is as good as I've ever seen it with Michael as well, looks pretty much closed eyewall right now. Looks a major now for the first time.

[NDG]

So when was the last time Panama City got hit directly by a Major Hurricane?

[bella_may]

Wobble watch has begun

[eastcoastFL]

[txwatcher91]

Well this burst maybe the one that really takes hold, it looks like the core is as good as I've seen it and the eye has really popped out nicely. Suspect the next set of recon missions find a major cane, pressure down into the 950s.

Latest Euro takes this from 978mb at 12z today to 940mb by landfall. It drops 38mb in 30 hours. Unreal and based on IR it's in the process of heading towards that.

When global models are unanimous on this, it’s very worrisome.

Agreed, 940mb on the Euro and the HRRR was even showing 947mb which is the strongest I've ever seen it show. Models are seeing improving conditions that should allow further strengthening, possibly RI, right up to landfall like we saw with Harvey. Not a good setup at all as a strengthening cane at landfall, especially cat 3/4, does a better job mixing those winds to the surface.

[NotoSans]

As expected, Dvorak estimates are higher than actual intensity. Dvorak tends to overestimate systems with ragged eye that has just been developed. Actual intensity is likely 100KT right now.

TXNT22 KNES 091753
TCSNTL

A. 14L (MICHAEL)

B. 09/1742Z

C. 25.5N

D. 86.4W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...WMG PINHOLE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN LG AND SURROUNDED BY B
RESULTING IN A DT OF 6.0 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[northjaxpro]

Michael REALLY looks very impressive currently on visible and IR satellite imagery! Incredible cyclone! Wow!

[txwatcher91]

Actually Euro gets this down to 934mb right before landfall... even worse.