ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3 105 kts

#1661 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:56 pm

GCANE wrote:Starting to see higher CAPE values (3000) ahead.
Models were only showing weak CAPE.
Looks like Michael may ramp higher that what they were forecasting.

http://i63.tinypic.com/v47xa9.png


Any slantwise CAPE to the north maybe? Would be a small boost if any.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1662 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:59 pm

The tower firing on the east quad is really spewing the cirrus.
Not even wrapping around.
Must be punching thru the tropopause with extreme prejudice.
Going really spin up the vort column as the tropopause lifts.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1663 Postby bella_may » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:00 pm

GCANE wrote:The tower firing on the east quad is really spewing the cirrus.
Not even wrapping around.
Must be punching thru the tropopause with extreme prejudice.
Going really spin up the vort column as the tropopause lifts.


In English please? :lol:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1664 Postby txwatcher91 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:01 pm

bella_may wrote:
GCANE wrote:The tower firing on the east quad is really spewing the cirrus.
Not even wrapping around.
Must be punching thru the tropopause with extreme prejudice.
Going really spin up the vort column as the tropopause lifts.


In English please? :lol:


This is organizing quickly and making a run for cat 4 basically.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1665 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:05 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
Ritzcraker wrote:Check out the interaction that's about to take place between Michael and that front!

https://imgur.com/AQQuzXc

That front seems to be moving fairly quickly. Should be interesting to see if the turn has been modeled correctly.


The cold front is still in the Texas Panhandle. That's the dry line west of the Hill Country ("Marfa Front"). It usually doesn't make it much east of Austin or San Antonio. The cold front won't reach the NW Gulf until near the time Michael is making landfall.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1666 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:07 pm

Highteeld wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SbGRF76.jpg

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.


Looks to be doing so right now
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1667 Postby Ritzcraker » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:08 pm

Highteeld wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SbGRF76.jpg

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.


Essentially a 30mb drop in 24 hrs...wow
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1668 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:09 pm

Ritzcraker wrote:
Highteeld wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SbGRF76.jpg

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.


Essentially a 30mb drop in 24 hrs...wow


I wouldn’t discount it, god forbid if it gets down to the 920s which is not too likely but could happen if the structure continues to improve like its doing
Last edited by Hurricaneman on Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1669 Postby salescall » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:10 pm

Anyone know if the oil rigs in the gulf will be impacted from the storm? Just curious if we will see a spike in gas prices like there were during Katrina and other gulf storms.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1670 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:10 pm

If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1671 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:11 pm

AF301 en route
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1672 Postby cjrciadt » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:11 pm

Yet ADT shows this lol:

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG
:lol: :lol: :roll: :roll:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: 18z Best Track up to Cat 3 105 kts

#1673 Postby ozonepete » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:12 pm

GCANE wrote:Starting to see higher CAPE values (3000) ahead.
Models were only showing weak CAPE.
Looks like Michael may ramp higher that what they were forecasting.

http://i63.tinypic.com/v47xa9.png


Always good to watch this surface CAPE and also theta-e for surface data. But I always also watch this, the mid-level RH (700-500 mb). It's essential info. If this drops off below 70% dry air entrainment starts. Otherwise this is great fuel to maintain the thunderstorm updrafts.

Image
Last edited by ozonepete on Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1674 Postby Ritzcraker » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:
The cold front is still in the Texas Panhandle. That's the dry line west of the Hill Country ("Marfa Front"). It usually doesn't make it much east of Austin or San Antonio. The cold front won't reach the NW Gulf until near the time Michael is making landfall.


Thanks for the explanation!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1675 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:13 pm

wxman57 wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:
Ritzcraker wrote:Check out the interaction that's about to take place between Michael and that front!

https://imgur.com/AQQuzXc

That front seems to be moving fairly quickly. Should be interesting to see if the turn has been modeled correctly.


The cold front is still in the Texas Panhandle. That's the dry line west of the Hill Country ("Marfa Front"). It usually doesn't make it much east of Austin or San Antonio. The cold front won't reach the NW Gulf until near the time Michael is making landfall.

So your thinking it may make landfall farther west?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1676 Postby KWT » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:14 pm

Ritzcraker wrote:
Highteeld wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SbGRF76.jpg

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.


Essentially a 30mb drop in 24 hrs...wow


Well worth noting Dennis dropped to 930mbs fairly far north into the gulf, so it's certainly possible if the eyewall and eye keep strong.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1677 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:14 pm

Stormcenter wrote:If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

I’m hoping a sudden burst of shear weakens this right now but that’s almost no chance of happening, it’s pretty sickening to see such a nasty hurricane make landfall tomorrow evening
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1678 Postby Buck » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:14 pm

Stormcenter wrote:If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.


Maybe some, but I don’t think most are cheering... Just marveling at a powerful storm and conjecturing at where it looks to be heading strengthwise.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1679 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:16 pm

No cheers here, just at a loss for words and trying to process this as it seems very hard to believe this is actually happening and intensifying so quickly
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1680 Postby Vdogg » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:17 pm

Stormcenter wrote:If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

Michael will likely become at Cat 4 whether people cheer it to do so or not. Nature cares nothing for our feelings or sensibilities. I mostly see a large contingent of people who are fascinated by weather and storms specifically. Intense storms are as beautiful as they are destructive. Do not confuse people marveling at a storms beauty, with them cheering on the destruction that storm will bring to their fellow man.
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