ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

I would venture exactly NONE of those posters are in the path of the storm.

[cjrciadt]

No cheers here, just at a loss for words and trying to process this as it seems very hard to believe this is actually happening and intensifying so quickly

Agree, could this be worse than Ivan landfall?!

[Sciencerocks]

If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

I would venture exactly NONE of those posters are in the path of the storm.

We're all here to watch the storm. None of us control the damn thing so please stop.

Some of us get excited. Don't think we're gods.

[GCANE]

Starting to see higher CAPE values (3000) ahead.
Models were only showing weak CAPE.
Looks like Michael may ramp higher that what they were forecasting.

http://i63.tinypic.com/v47xa9.png

Always good to watch this surface CAPE and also theta-e for surface data. But I always also watch this, the mid-level RH (700-500 mb). It's essential info. If this drops off below 70% dry air entrainment starts. Otherwise this is great fuel to maintain the thunderstorm updrafts.

https://imgur.com/GITcw6p

Much thanks for that Pete.
Recon did a really good job this morning surveying the atmosphere around him.
It was all moist from surface to 500mb.

[cjrciadt]

955mb is my guess for found pressure for incoming mission.

[Kingarabian]

If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

I would venture exactly NONE of those posters are in the path of the storm.

We're all here to watch the storm. None of us control the damn thing so please stop.

Some of us get excited. Don't think we're gods.

Just ignore those posts. We get them every year.

[Ritzcraker]

If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

I would venture exactly NONE of those posters are in the path of the storm.

Hey guys lets try to not let our emotions into this discussion. Probably a good idea if we keep this thread strictly scientific. There are a lot of charged emotions about this storm and the destruction it will bring but i guarantee you that no one here wishes this storm on anyone. Were all just here to track, learn, and admire.

[Blackwaterjoe22]

If current track predicted by NHC holds true, what kind of conditions can be expected in the milton, fl area (Santa Rosa County)?. Local met reports are mixed at best. Some say 75 mph + winds, some say 25-30 mph. So many people here are used to the West side of the storm being a non-event that I am afraid some, who haven't experienced such a storm, may take things for granted.

I love in Milton on Blackwater Bay. I am not overly concerned with wind but am concerned with surge.Hate put 12-15 inches in my house last year. Right now my canal is about 18 inches above normal high tide but it is still 10 hours of so uuntil next high tide. My dock is already under so should be interesting next 24 hours. Prayers to those east of me!!

Joe

[Blizzard96x]

Looks like the eye is gone again, probably will remain Cat 2 at 5pm

[MississippiWx]

Looks like the large burst of convection has temporarily covered the eye. The southern semicircle continues to struggle. Hopefully, these struggles will continue because it is limiting how fast Michael can strengthen.

[Kingarabian]

The Euro has this peaking near 934mb. It's not impossible but the large amount of what appears to be cirrus in the W and SW quads shows that the system still needs a bit more organization for that feat to occur. Still a lot of time, about 24 hours left unfortunately.

[GCANE]

Looks like the eye is gone again, probably will remain Cat 2 at 5pm

Just obscured by the mushroom cloud the hot tower left.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like the eye is gone again, probably will remain Cat 2 at 5pm

Not sure what you're looking at because I still see an eye
Partly obscured by anvils from a hot tower though

[txwatcher91]

Looks like the eye is gone again, probably will remain Cat 2 at 5pm

The eye is clouded due to some overshooting tops from the extremely powerful storms firing around the eyewall. This is common in a category 3 storm when the eye is still in the process of forming. This will probably clear out this evening and become a category 4 at that point.

[KWT]

Looks like the large burst of convection has temporarily covered the eye. The southern semicircle continues to struggle. Hopefully, these struggles will continue because it is limiting how fast Michael can strengthen.

Yeah but it's still bursting and it dropped nearly 7mbs whilst having a totally open s/w side earlier today. It still looks miles better than it did.

[hurricaneCW]

Looks like the eye is gone again, probably will remain Cat 2 at 5pm

Very unlikely, preliminary reports suggest an upgrade is guaranteed. Recon will probably find pressures in the low 950s and 110+ flight level winds.

[xironman]

Looks like the eye is gone again, probably will remain Cat 2 at 5pm

It is being obscured by tower thunderstorms on the eye wall. Not a sign of weakening.

[xironman]

Looks like the eye is gone again, probably will remain Cat 2 at 5pm

It is being obscured by towering thunderstorms on the eye wall. Not a sign of weakening.

[northjaxpro]

If I didn’t know better it almost sounds like we have
large contingent of posters cheering on Michael to become a Cat.4 or worse hurricane. Sorry but I just don’t get that.

Michael will likely become at Cat 4 whether people cheer it to do so or not. Nature cares nothing for our feelings or sensibilities. I mostly see a large contingent of people who are fascinated by weather and storms specifically. Intense storms are as beautiful as they are destructive. Do not confuse people marveling at a storms beauty, with them cheering on the destruction that storm will bring to their fellow man.

Agree 100% No one on here I would imagine is "cheering" on rapid intensification. That is pure utter B.S. My late dad's family (my aunts' and uncles' families) )live out in Panama City and my youngest sister lives in Tallahassee. I am extremely concerned for all of them.

Pray for all who are being affected or impacted by this dangerous hurricane!

[TennTradition]

Long-time lurket; first-time poster

Since we are now seeing increased organization and strengthening, I guess it's time to bring up everyone's favorite subject: ERC.

I'm wondering if this rapid intensification increases the changes of an ERC before landfall. And, if so, would the dry air/shear to the southwest be more likely to weaken the storm during an ERC? Michael has not had a fully closed EW for some time, yet seems to be fairly insulated from the dry air. Would an ERC make him more vulnerable to entrainment than he has been up until now - or basically just the same risk?

I'm trying to lay out the positive and negative factors that would support intensification vs. weakening. And, an ERC in the next 12 hours seems like a reasonable "weakening" risk.

Thoughts on this from those more skilled than I am would be appreciated.