ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a category 4 by late this evening. The question is - how high does it go?

Is there a chance of eyewall replacement that could hinder intensification before landfall?

[KWT]

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a category 4 by late this evening. The question is - how high does it go?

I think both Dennis and Opal shows sub 935mbs is quite possible, but we will see. Is it going to be a rare system that strengthens into landfall? That's the question...

[edu2703]

4:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 9
Location: 26.0°N 86.4°W
Moving: N at 12 mph
Min pressure: 957 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

[MississippiWx]

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a category 4 by late this evening. The question is - how high does it go?

Is there a chance of eyeball replacement that could hinder intensification before landfall?

Well, Michael (Myers) may take the eyeball, but not sure if he'd replace it.

[MississippiWx]

Fresh microwave pass came out minutes ago shows the eyewall is now fully closed and very solid. It was open to the W this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/UJGE2Mv.jpg

Looks open or stretched to the E? Can't quite tell due to the pass cutoff.

With the intense convection in the eastern eye wall, I'd find it hard to believe it is open on that side. Looks completely closed.

[Ken711]

I wouldn't be surprised if we have a category 4 by late this evening. The question is - how high does it go?

Is there a chance of eyeball replacement that could hinder intensification before landfall?

Well, Michael (Myers) may take the eyeball, but not sure if he'd replace it.

Nice. Sorry about that, fat finger typing.

[northjaxpro]

oh oh.. Microwave image indeed shows now a closed eyewall.

This is a extremely troubling development. ÉURO had 934 mb at landfall tomorrow and darn it, it may just deepen to that level.

[meriland29]

The fact that it is only now that he has a closed eyewall and is a moderate cat 3 atm scares me

[MGC]

120mph...thinking Michael has a good chance of making Cat-4....MGC

[funster]

It looks like Michael just punched itself in the face. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

[Ken711]

NHC lastest forecast:

The new NHC intensity forecast brings Michael up to 110 kt, and is in best agreement with
the SHIPS and HCCA models. After landfall, significant weakening should occur while Michael moves over the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is predicted to re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic processes after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.

INIT 09/2100Z 26.0N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.6N 86.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 29.7N 85.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 31.8N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 33.9N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 39.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 45.5N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 50.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[NDG]

So based on the previous fix to the current latest fix by the recon, MH Michael is heading at 352 degrees, almost due north.

[KWT]

NHC forecast of 110kts seems somewhat conservative in light of a system that has just lost 7-8mbs of pressure in just 3-4hrs...

Think that will be reached in the next few hours in that very derp convection.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1049766807979155459

[NDG]

URNT12 KNHC 092101
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 09/20:29:50Z
B. 26.03 deg N 086.42 deg W
C. 700 mb 2743 m
D. 958 mb
E. 205 deg 15 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 91 kt
I. 329 deg 10 nm 20:27:00Z
J. 079 deg 84 kt
K. 326 deg 16 nm 20:25:00Z
L. 87 kt
M. 131 deg 16 nm 20:35:00Z
N. 218 deg 109 kt
O. 131 deg 19 nm 20:36:00Z
P. 12 C / 3037 m
Q. 16 C / 3046 m
R. NA / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 1114A MICHAEL OB 04
MAX FL WIND 109 KT 131 / 19 NM 20:36:00Z

[Raebie]

https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1049766807979155459

This is so not good.

[Kazmit]

NHC still not explicitly forecasting a cat 4 but I think the chances of it happening are high. I think cat 5 is a stretch, but I don't want to jinx it.

[NDG]

And to think that just a couple of days ago the NHC was doubting the Global models in Michael becoming a major hurricane.
Hurricane models need big time help.

[facemane]

Salute!

@ Crazy, and maybe others,

The "live oak/spanish oaks" live to be hundreds of years old, so they don't go down willi nilly. Ask the county ag agent and you are likely seeing laural oaks, which last 60 or 70 years normally. See:

https://www.hunker.com/13428946/live-oa ... l-oak-tree

I thot all "oaks" had big, deep tap roots until I saw the laurel oaks uprooted here after storms. Like the short leaf pines, they uproot very easily because they have no tap root like the long leaf pines. So I watched two of my 70 footers go down in the first hour or two of Opal once we got to that "howl" you get once wind gets up to 70 mph or so. And do not rule out the mini-tornadoes in these storms, even small ones. Most folks call them vortexes, and you can hear them coming and feel your ears pop if they pass right over. So I had a big shortleaf come thru the roof from one of those during Erin ( two months before Opal) The long leaf suckers live up to 500 years, so durin Opal I wtched the wimpy ones go down and the two or three long leaf gorillas just grunted, heh heh.,

Secret is to thin out your pines, retaining the longleaf if you have any. My cousin in Waveland MS cut down all his within falling distance of his place and had a nice lawn and some small gardens. So no damage after Katrina, and he was a mile and a half from the beach, 29 or 30 feet msl.

Gums sends...

very good advice. The first thing we did before we built our home was to cut down pines within falling on the roof distance.

[CrazyC83]

:( oh oh.. Microwave image indeed shows now a closed eyewall.

This is a extremely troubling development. ÉURO had 934 mb at landfall tomorrow and darn it, it may just deepen to that level.

I think it might get there within a few hours.