ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1881 Postby SouthDadeFish » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:54 pm

The Air Force plane is about to make a NE-SW pass, which should capture the true max winds in the NE quadrant. I'm expecting to see some 120+ kt FL winds. I really don't like the look of this... That is some very deep convection that has been firing over the past 6 hours or so.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1882 Postby SeaBrz_FL » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:57 pm

Live Storms Media has been doing live short feeds all day in the Panhandle. A new one shows the traffic nightmare in Crestview of vehicles trying to head north on Hwy 85.

https://bit.ly/2E9XOTQ
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1883 Postby TennTradition » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:
salescall wrote:Anyone know if the oil rigs in the gulf will be impacted from the storm? Just curious if we will see a spike in gas prices like there were during Katrina and other gulf storms.


Not too much. Probably evacuating non-essentials from offshore SE LA, but that's it. I just brief them, they don't tell me what they are doing. I couldn't tell you if I did know their plans.


Gulf of Mexico may lose 300-400 thousand barrels of day of production for crude.

Bigger issue for gasoline prices isn't really the lost oil production but refinery impact. There won't be refinery impact with Michael, so I don't anticipate an impact on the gasoline market.

Should be net bearish for natural gas with loss of heating demand vs. losing only about 0.3 bcf/d of production.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1884 Postby Blizzard96x » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:00 pm

Cranky thinks the NHC statement of a 120mph hurricane is not accurate.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 1324503040
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1885 Postby StruThiO » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:02 pm

Cranky is completely out of line
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1886 Postby jdjaguar » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:03 pm

StruThiO wrote:Cranky is completely out of line

Agree.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1887 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:04 pm

Blizzard96x wrote:Cranky thinks the NHC statement of a 120mph hurricane is not accurate.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 1324503040

False statements like this is why people get hurt
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1888 Postby dizzyfish » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:05 pm

Before it gets crazy busy in here.....

I have all of my Florida peeps in my prayers especially those in the northern counties. I am truly scared to death for you. Take care and if you haven't left yet GET OUT NOW!

For those in the surrounding southern counties - please don't drive through flooded streets! We may have a bit more of those than they are expecting.

Bless you all and my lovely home state!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1889 Postby sponger » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:07 pm

Blizzard96x wrote:Cranky thinks the NHC statement of a 120mph hurricane is not accurate.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 1324503040


The next poster Kevin nailed it.

"You are using a prediction center digital graphic to make an outlandish point when recon data directly refutes your effort?"

Followed by NewEngland WX Guy

Replying to @crankywxguy
deepest cat 1 I've ever seen
Last edited by sponger on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1890 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:07 pm

SeaBrz_FL wrote:Live Storms Media has been doing live short feeds all day in the Panhandle. A new one shows the traffic nightmare in Crestview of vehicles trying to head north on Hwy 85.

https://bit.ly/2E9XOTQ


Is always mind boggling why people wait until the middle of the day to evacuate, if they would had left before sunrise they would had not encountered any traffic at all. This was the case all the time when I lived in Nola. If I lived there and I had not evacuated I would had planned to leave around 3 AM tonight and avoided all the traffic.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1891 Postby Raebie » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:09 pm

TWC reporting people riding it out on St George island.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1892 Postby Camerooski » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:10 pm

Blizzard96x wrote:Cranky thinks the NHC statement of a 120mph hurricane is not accurate.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/ ... 1324503040

Cranky is a wackjob. Let me trust this idiot over the amazing people at the NHC and TWO RECON MISSIONS currently, over his usual comments on how Michael is just a string of clouds. What he is doing is extremely dangerous downplaying this storm and I find it grossly negligent and harmful to the weather community and the good people trying to find information on Michael. Disgusting imo.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1893 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:10 pm

NotoSans wrote:Surprised to see NHC only showing a 110-knot peak. IMO they should rely less on the intensity guidance but forecast near-term peak intensity based on recent trends.


They did with Florence and got burned. With shear forecast to rise as well. 140 mph storm in NC (and SC) is unheard of dating back to 1851. A few examples of that for the northern Gulf.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1894 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:12 pm

Here we go, this is a solid Cat 3 Hurricane without any questions.

220600 2630N 08614W 6974 02853 9732 +089 +040 139108 111 093 051 00
220630 2629N 08615W 6942 02862 9699 +090 +040 143106 108 104 058 00
$$
Last edited by NDG on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1895 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:12 pm

111 kts before plane enters eye.

111 093 051 00
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1896 Postby BYG Jacob » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:14 pm

NHC nailed the intensity
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1897 Postby HurricaneBelle » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:15 pm

Coastal NC shouldn't sleep on this storm either - the NHC expects it to emerge fairly healthy off the coast judging by these hurricane & TS wind probabilities accompanying the latest advisory, including a 31% probability of hurricane winds at Hatteras:

CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 72(73) X(73) X(73)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) X(48) X(48)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31)

FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 59(74) X(74) X(74)
FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) X(38) X(38)
FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12)

CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 71(75) X(75) X(75)
CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 47(47) X(47) X(47)
CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22)

NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 67(70) X(70) X(70)
NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 41(41) X(41) X(41)
NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22)

MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 67(71) X(71) X(71)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) X(43) X(43)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24)

SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 65(72) X(72) X(72)
SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38)
SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16)

WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 62(72) X(72) X(72)
WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) X(36)
WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15)
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1898 Postby caneman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:15 pm

Just saw a photo of Clearwater Beach flooding already. Sorry. I dont know how to post photos. I suspect with astronomical high tide, we are going to get serious flooding tomorrow. I can only imagine points North.
Last edited by caneman on Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1899 Postby dhweather » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:16 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1900 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:18 pm

NDG wrote:Here we go, this is a solid Cat 3 Hurricane without any questions.

220600 2630N 08614W 6974 02853 9732 +089 +040 139108 111 093 051 00
220630 2629N 08615W 6942 02862 9699 +090 +040 143106 108 104 058 00
$$


At a minimum, that supports the current 105 kt intensity.
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