ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
By the way, here we are on 10/9/18 and there's 3 Atlantic tropical cyclones spinning out there. Don't see that all too often!
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Andy D
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
-80C convection completely surrounding the eye. Unreal


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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:-80C convection completely surrounding the eye. Unreal
https://i.imgur.com/SlQ8kbz.jpg
I don't think Katrina or Rita ever had CDG surrounding the eye at all. Opal I think did, but had a pitiful eye structure for 916mb.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:By the way, here we are on 10/9/18 and there's 3 Atlantic tropical cyclones spinning out there. Don't see that all too often!
I couldn't even find any examples where one of them wasn't in ET transition, so this could be a first especially with three strengthening systems.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Rick Scott ( Fla gov) on TWC absolutely begging people in the panhandle to get out of the storm surge areas. He is telling them if they stay, they will die.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Incredible seeing those intense convective tops completely wrapping the eye. Just speechless right now!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:supercane4867 wrote:-80C convection completely surrounding the eye. Unreal
https://i.imgur.com/SlQ8kbz.jpg
I don't think Katrina or Rita ever had CDG surrounding the eye at all. Opal I think did, but had a pitiful eye structure for 916mb.
We'll never know for sure but Camille or the 1935 hurricane may have.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:-80C convection completely surrounding the eye. Unreal
https://i.imgur.com/SlQ8kbz.jpg
No matter what graphic you look at, this thing is hitting the top of the scale
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St Petersburg Florida
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
CrazyC83 wrote:supercane4867 wrote:-80C convection completely surrounding the eye. Unreal
https://i.imgur.com/SlQ8kbz.jpg
I don't think Katrina or Rita ever had CDG surrounding the eye at all. Opal I think did, but had a pitiful eye structure for 916mb.
Very rare for any storm to get that cold north of 20n in this basin, so that is mighty impressive!
Also warm spot really starting to show itself again, about to look real classic in the next 3hrs...like 4/5 classic ..
Last edited by KWT on Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
MacTavish wrote:SunnyThoughts wrote:MacTavish wrote:Whats up with that flight path the NOAA plane took?..
Going back in for another pass?
looks like they did a little loop in the eyewall and didnt go for a fix on the center. I dont know anything about how their flight plans work though.
I thought they may have gone out to sample the extent of the wind field on the east side and then came back for another pass.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Hey Wxman57, wasn't your original forecast for this to be 45 knots? You nailed the location but off a tad on the intensity
(this is very tongue in cheek...I have utmost respect for the pros here)

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
How's prep along tue panhandle going? Is it enough? Was there enough time
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
I’m surprised at how much convection is building on the west side
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
chaser1 wrote:xironman wrote:chaser1 wrote:A few run cycles ago, the NAM was throwing out numbers like 898 mb !!! Thank heaven, NAM has trended MUCH WEAKER and now only dropping down to a flacid 935 mb
Go the opposite of the NAM and you will be ok.
Whew, that's a relief !!I'm sure pressures in 'ol Mikey are gonna jump 10 mb or more. Yep, that eye should be filling any moment now
So if the NAM says weaker, go for stronger, really it is a mid latitude model completely out of its element
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Michael is looking very dangerous now...People in its path better have prepared themselves already. The people who decided to stay at the landfall area might be in for a rude surprise...
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
Wow, 124 knot fl level winds found by NOAA recon.
230300 2628N 08610W 7482 02239 9665 +159 //// 184121 124 087 041 01
230300 2628N 08610W 7482 02239 9665 +159 //// 184121 124 087 041 01
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion
NOAA plane just measured 125 kt FL, ~100 SFMR, blend of these supports 105-110 kt. I’d venture to say this is probably 115 kt Cat 4 now
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