ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1981 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:21 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1982 Postby meriland29 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:21 pm

michelinj wrote:124 kts FL winds from recon!!! What!



Flagged or considered???
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1983 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:21 pm

Wow, he's making a run at Cat 4 based on satellite. Ridiculously cold cloud tops especially north of 25°.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1984 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:22 pm

Fix: 26.45N & 86.38W

230600 2627N 08623W 7520 02101 9541 +190 +156 205025 028 030 000 00
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1985 Postby michelinj » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:22 pm

meriland29 wrote:
michelinj wrote:124 kts FL winds from recon!!! What!



Flagged or considered???


Not 100% sure but I believe flagged? Not sure of the details of recon measurements
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1986 Postby Nimbus » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:22 pm

MacTavish wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:
MacTavish wrote:Whats up with that flight path the NOAA plane took?..


Going back in for another pass?


looks like they did a little loop in the eyewall and didnt go for a fix on the center. I dont know anything about how their flight plans work though.


They did a wind profile run, currently tropical storm force winds at the Longitude of Tallahassee increasing to 100 Knot flight level winds at 86 degrees Longitude, then the 124 knot peak gust in the eastern eyewall.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1987 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:23 pm

124 FL wind at 700mb in E eyewall. The NE eyewall is likely near CAT4 intensity
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1988 Postby RL3AO » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:23 pm

The northern GOM doesn't get too many major hits where a storm intensifies until landfall.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1989 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:24 pm

michelinj wrote:124 kts FL winds from recon!!! What!


That is insane! Wow!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1990 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:24 pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1991 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:25 pm

The eye is rapidly warming and clearing out. WOW

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1992 Postby jdjaguar » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:25 pm

RL3AO wrote:The northern GOM doesn't get too many major hits where a storm intensifies until landfall.

History in the making
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1993 Postby Steve » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:25 pm

Michael’s been taking advantage of the improved upper pattern progged yesterday to go to about 30 hours or so. I’m not sure if it will be intensifying at landfall or it will be steady or even slightly fading. I sent out a bunch of well wishes to some of the people I know and work with in Panama City. Same for everyone here in Okaloosa, Walton, Gulf, Bay and Franklin Counties then farther inland. I left D Springs this morning and took the I-10. There were a lot of power trucks moving in and traffic wasnt bad at that time except the mobile bay bridge because a cop was standing in traffic at the end of the bridge. Didn’t make much sense but it sure contributed to the delay getting across the Bay.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1994 Postby HeeBGBz » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:25 pm

eastcoastFL[quote="chaser1 wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
Yup its about to cross 86W again soon to the east. Its been inching back that way. It will be interesting how sharp the turn is.


Last hour or so sure has teased a couple east of north wobbles. Question is, when are wobbles no longer wobbles? Here's food for thought.... official NHC forecast position for 0600Z later tonight (well, okay technically early tomm. a.m.) is 27.6 and 86.6. Tomm. afternoon at 1800Z it is 29.7 and 85.9. All I know is that i'm keeping one eye on whether Michael crosses that 86 W line before midnight. That's aside from any chance he may be south of it's early a.m. forecast point as well. Both however certainly wouldn't bode well for those east of Apalach. given the even greater extreme storm surge that could pile up further east.


Thats exactly the same observations Im making. I feel like its going to head a bit further east. We will see if the nhc is still calling it due N.


This storm is worrying me. I don't see the storm doing what the models are saying it is going to do. It gets closer and closer. Someone on tv just said it was supposed to continue north for 12 more hours. If that's the forecast, it will be in our front yard. No one is at all prepared here, in case Michael is still not playing by the rules. Forgive me, if I'm just having Katrina paranoia.

:eek:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1995 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:25 pm

NDG wrote:Fix: 26.45N & 86.38W

230600 2627N 08623W 7520 02101 9541 +190 +156 205025 028 030 000 00


Still a good western component to its northern movenent.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1996 Postby StormPyrate » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:25 pm

RL3AO wrote:The northern GOM doesn't get too many major hits where a storm intensifies until landfall.

So are we witnessing that rare occurrence or will it weaken?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1997 Postby hurricaneCW » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:28 pm

Just note that if he does start to weaken before landfall, the storm surge won't. Think Katrina.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1998 Postby Abdullah » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:28 pm

I hope this doesn't Harvey on us.

I thought we all expected Category 4 already. I'm here busy thinking if it could get to Category 5. But still, those 124 Knot Readings are insane.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#1999 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:29 pm

meriland29 wrote:
michelinj wrote:124 kts FL winds from recon!!! What!



Flagged or considered???


Unflagged.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2000 Postby johngaltfla » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:29 pm

Luckily, I just caught some family members who thought they could drive up to Tennessee to see the leaves changing. I informed them that odds are I-75 will be closed in North Florida and South Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday so don't waste their time. I am so glad they are listening, this is going to make a mess. Godspeed to our Panhandle bros!
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