ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[craptacular]

What mission number are they on atm? I see 12 and 13 which are both in the storm with significantly different readings..

12 is in there now. 13 isn't schedule to take off until 12:30am EDT., with 14 leaving a few hours later. Note that these mission numbers are changed from the original plan of the day issued yesterday. There was a canceled flight.

[supercane4867]

Eye temp just broke into the positives on ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 920.3mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[MetroMike]

Us here in Tampa have to watch out for these bands that rotate through as they may cause some power outages and possible tree damages in a short burst of time.

[StormPyrate]

Good resource for parsing the raw data from the HHs?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

948mb sonde with 16 knots of surface wind

UZNT13 KWBC 100220
XXAA 60027 99270 70865 08176 99948 28033 24016 00/// ///// /////
92219 26625 25014 85965 23029 34504 70656 20261 16006 88999 77999
31313 09608 80210
61616 NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 21
62626 CENTER MBL WND 25013 AEV 33668 DLM WND 21001 947694 WL150 2
4015 080 REL 2705N08650W 021046 SPG 2705N08650W 021521 =
XXBB 60028 99270 70865 08176 00948 28033 11850 23029 22818 21432
33788 23058 44754 20856 55694 19861
21212 00948 24016 11935 24015 22917 26014 33909 25010 44888 27502
55874 29006 66850 34504 77694 15509
31313 09608 80210
61616 NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 21
62626 CENTER MBL WND 25013 AEV 33668 DLM WND 21001 947694 WL150 2
4015 080 REL 2705N08650W 021046 SPG 2705N08650W 021521 =

[Hurrilurker]

I know I asked earlier, but does anyone think this will affect flights out of Tampa first thing in the morning?

Don't know, but I would definitely guess yes. Even if your flight isn't directly affected, it's going to jack up the whole air travel system, will affect lots of airports. And Tampa is being reached by some winds as well, it probably won't be good.

[craptacular]

Dropsonde in center says 948mb with 18mph wind.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Good resource for parsing the raw data from the HHs?

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[supercane4867]

I would be surprised if Michael does not get the upgrade at 11PM

[SunnyThoughts]

Seems like the west side of Micheal is going to pack more of a punch than I was expecting. I'm in Pensacola and was hoping we would escape higher TS winds.

Yeah, SAme here. Not sure now what to expect, but if I had to bet ( that is if the turn happens in the next 3 or 4 hours like it suppose to) 50 mph maybe a few gusts to hurricane. If that turn happens later as it gets closer to the coast...I don't know what to think.

[cycloneye]

948mb dropsonde and 16 knots

UZNT13 KWBC 100220
XXAA 60027 99270 70865 08176 99948 28033 24016 00/// ///// /////
92219 26625 25014 85965 23029 34504 70656 20261 16006 88999 77999
31313 09608 80210
61616 NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 21
62626 CENTER MBL WND 25013 AEV 33668 DLM WND 21001 947694 WL150 2
4015 080 REL 2705N08650W 021046 SPG 2705N08650W 021521 =
XXBB 60028 99270 70865 08176 00948 28033 11850 23029 22818 21432
33788 23058 44754 20856 55694 19861
21212 00948 24016 11935 24015 22917 26014 33909 25010 44888 27502
55874 29006 66850 34504 77694 15509
31313 09608 80210
61616 NOAA2 1214A MICHAEL OB 21
62626 CENTER MBL WND 25013 AEV 33668 DLM WND 21001 947694 WL150 2
4015 080 REL 2705N08650W 021046 SPG 2705N08650W 021521 =

[CronkPSU]

I know I asked earlier, but does anyone think this will affect flights out of Tampa first thing in the morning?

Nope...should be fine

[meriland29]

Eye temp just broke into the positives on ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 920.3mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Sorry, I am far from a professional in any way lol..I am still new to this game. Does that indicate strengthening or weakening? I know warmer tops signify weakening but inside the eye itself it is a little fuzzy for me..

[NDG]

So for the Advisory they will go with 947mb if not 946mb because of the 16 knot winds.

[StruThiO]

Warmer eye is a stronger system

[HurricaneEnzo]

Eye temp just broke into the positives on ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 920.3mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Sorry, I am far from a professional in any way lol..I am still new to this game. Does that indicate strengthening or weakening? I know warmer tops signify weakening but inside the eye itself it is a little fuzzy for me..

Warmer temps inside the eye means stronger storm

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

[Sciencerocks]

Eye temp just broke into the positives on ADT

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 920.3mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +3.2C Cloud Region Temp : -74.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Sorry, I am far from a professional in any way lol..I am still new to this game. Does that indicate strengthening or weakening? I know warmer tops signify weakening but inside the eye itself it is a little fuzzy for me..

A warmer eye is a sign of strengthening...Warmer eye = air subsiding, while a colder eyewall is air rising.

[meriland29]

Alright, thanks for the clarification .

[drezee]

So for the Advisory they will go with 947mb if not 946mb because of the 16 knot winds.

Should be 946 for wind and pressure trend

[sponger]

This storm is going to get alot of study. Really fought off a lot to get where it is. Can you imagine if conditions had been a little more perfect? Going to be quite bad as is.