ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[drezee]

Landfall tomorrow evening on the Euro, shortly after 4 PM CDT near Panama City. 934.

https://i.imgur.com/7EFdqlT.png

That would be horrible...

[ColdMiser123]

Landfall tomorrow evening on the Euro, shortly after 4 PM CDT near Panama City. 934.

https://i.imgur.com/7EFdqlT.png

Nightmare run for Panama City. Simulated Euro IR shows a pretty fair bit of convection on the west side of the storm.

Unfortunately, this looks to be the strongest run the Euro has shown yet.

[Highteeld]

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.

[Emmett_Brown]

It is interesting to watch how different models handle the NE turn as Micheal approaches landfall. Here is the HRRR model, which is nice since it shows hourly increments: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0918&fh=26

[Raebie]

https://i.imgur.com/SbGRF76.jpg

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.

It's doing just that.

[Nimbus]

Looks like Tallahassee is going to be on the wrong side of the eye.
The surge will be devastating for Panama city and the islands according to surge model.

[Highteeld]

https://i.imgur.com/SbGRF76.jpg

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.

It's doing just that.

Yep. Latest VDM indicates the eyewall is closed.

[NDG]

This is how bad most of the intensity models did less than 60 hours ago. The usual aggressive HWRF got it right, got lucky
The global models had it right all along, the NHC never should had doubt them.

[pcolaman]

Seeing 924 with the GFS right off shore.

[pcolaman]

Seeing 924 with the GFS right off shore.

Correction 944

[OuterBanker]

18z GFS now agrees with the Euro. Shifted east to big bend. Also looking rather nasty for the Carolinas. The tropical storm watch here did surprise me.

[robbielyn]

18z GFS now agrees with the Euro. Shifted east to big bend. Also looking rather nasty for the Carolinas. The tropical storm watch here did surprise me.

I don't know what u saw but I saw it hitting Panama City. the big bend is east of apalach.

[fwbbreeze]

I agree the last EURO and Gfs runs were pretty much Panama City Beach...unless I missed something.

[jlauderdal]

This is how bad most of the intensity models did less than 60 hours ago. The usual aggressive HWRF got it right, got lucky
The global models had it right all along, the NHC never should had doubt them.

Hwrf intensity win, doesnt happen often and deserves credit

[northjaxpro]

So. The HWRF gets another coup for forecasting.Michael initially to bomb into a major.

This model does not often get these coups for sure concerning intensity forecasts. All models struggle with intensity forecasts in general. However, there was another occasion I distinctly remember from back in 2015 in which the HRWF was the only model to correctly forecast the intensity of tiny Danny to become a major hurricane in the far tropical Eastern Atlantic that year. which indeed it did achieve that status.

[jlauderdal]

So. The HWRF gets another coup for forecasting.Michael initially to bomb into a major.

This model does not often get these coups for sure concerning intensity forecasts. All models struggle with intensity forecasts in general. However, there was another occasion I distinctly remember from back in 2015 in which the HRWF was the only model to correctly forecast the intensity of tiny Danny to become a major hurricane in the far tropical Eastern Atlantic that year. which indeed it did achieve that status.

Hwrf did great back in the day when katrina was approaching se florida

[Taffy]

What is steering Michael NE?

[tolakram]

So. The HWRF gets another coup for forecasting.Michael initially to bomb into a major.

This model does not often get these coups for sure concerning intensity forecasts. All models struggle with intensity forecasts in general. However, there was another occasion I distinctly remember from back in 2015 in which the HRWF was the only model to correctly forecast the intensity of tiny Danny to become a major hurricane in the far tropical Eastern Atlantic that year. which indeed it did achieve that status.

What are you all talking about? Every year for the past few years the HWRF has been the best single intensity model, behind only the Florida State Super Ensemble. In the 3 day range it constantly scores well. The Euro, on the other hand, has shown no intensity skill even though track skill is one of the best. When the euro gets the intensity right it's basically luck. I'm paraphrasing the 2017 NHC seasonal verification report.

[northjaxpro]

I have only recently in the past 3-5 years observed the HWRF model. For me, I only really remember the model performingl well with Danny and now with Michael.

I appreciate those details you pointed out though tolakram. . it looks like you have followed HWRF closely through the years obviously.

[Sciencerocks]

:uarrow: I have only recently in the past 3-5 years observed the HWRF model. For me, I only really remember the model performingl well with Danny and now with Michael.

I appreciate those details you pointed out though tolakram. . it looks like you have followed HWRF closely through the years obviously.

Does good with organized systems..Not so much with systems that have just developed in the mdr like Isaac.