ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[robbielyn]

Being from Texas, I don't have that many friends from Florida on Facebook, Twitter, etc., but from what I've even seen on there as well as from news articles, interviews, etc., I fear that a lot of people didn't evacuate. I'm just praying they make it out of this ok. I don't believe many of them realize the beast which is about to be unleashed upon them. It's unsettling...

there's a Bible proverb that says the wise one sees the calamity and conceals himself, but the inexperienced one goes headlong and suffers the consequences. proverbs 22:3. enough said.

[USTropics]

Latest recon pass from SE to NW over center:

[tolakram]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100854
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past
several hours. The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been
136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range. In
addition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb. Based on
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt.
This is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,
SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The cirrus outflow
associated with Michael has improved over the past several hours,
with the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast
and along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west.

The initial motion is 360/11. Michael is embedded in the flow
between a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic
and the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough
across the central United States. These features should cause the
hurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase
in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or
its remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for
the eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h
point, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern
United States between 12-48 h. The forecast guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the
previous track and the various consensus models through 72 h.

Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael
remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate
vertical shear. After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily
weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Extratropical
transition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and
this should be complete just after the 48 h point. The cyclone
should re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly
northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast
has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current
trends. Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
warning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should
be rushed to completion.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to
13 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind
damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida
Panhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should
prepare for life-threatening hurricane winds. Dangerous hurricane-
force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.3N 86.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Hammy]

Seems the strongest flight winds are in the SE quad, and the strongest surface winds are in the NE quad. Seems pretty consistent on the last few missions too. Result of tilt?

[USTropics]

Ever so slight adjustment to the west on the 5AM advisory by the NHC as seen at the end of the radar loop:

[StruThiO]

what is happening, am I dreaming?

[jlauderdal]

the possibility of weakening as we have seen with northern gulf storms is off the table, strengthening at landfall on a northern gulf coast storm is rare but thats where ae are...cat 4 roofs off and will knock down structures, surge was always going to be a huge issue even as a 2 but now a wrecking ball is coming through, roads should be relatively clear so if you are still there jump on the 10 and head west, you can be out of real danger rather quickly on the west side of the system..this is far from a typical northern gulf system

[tolakram]

the possibility of weakening as we have seen with northern gulf storms is off the table, strengthening at landfall on a northern gulf coast storm is rare but thats where ae are...cat 4 roofs off and will knock down structures, surge was always going to be a huge issue even as a 2 but now a wrecking ball is coming through, roads should be relatively clear so if you are still there jump on the 10 and head west, you can be out of real danger rather quickly on the west side of the system..this is far from a typical northern gulf system

Not sure why anyone thought it would weaken with all the reliable intensity guidance showing the opposite. The conditions are not October like out there, it's moving fairly quickly, and the landfall location has a lot of deep water just offshore.

VDM

000
URNT12 KNHC 100919
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/09:04:10Z
B. 28.44 deg N 086.50 deg W
C. 700 mb 2585 m
D. 940 mb
E. 150 deg 33 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 108 kt
I. 113 deg 12 nm 09:00:30Z
J. 200 deg 130 kt
K. 115 deg 14 nm 09:00:00Z
L. 106 kt
M. 305 deg 7 nm 09:06:30Z
N. 016 deg 94 kt
O. 305 deg 7 nm 09:06:30Z
P. 12 C / 3048 m
Q. 19 C / 3046 m
R. 10 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF306 1314A MICHAEL OB 16
MAX FL WIND 130 KT 115 / 14 NM 09:00:00Z
;

[KWT]

Seems the strongest flight winds are in the SE quad, and the strongest surface winds are in the NE quad. Seems pretty consistent on the last few missions too. Result of tilt?

Yeah, I think when they flew through the NE quad last time it was convectively just wanted a little, I think the NE quad will have higher winds now again at FL.

I don't blame people thinking this was going to weakening, the only comparable cane to this is modern times was Harvey. Both are strengthening hening up to landfall, not seen that before Harvery for a long time.

[Centralflamama]

How is Pensacola looking? I’m afraid my step sister is there and didn’t prepare for much of anything.

[johngaltfla]

Michael is still projected to be a 75 mph hurricane near 32.1N 83.8W just north of Vienna, GA.

That stretch of I-75 between Valdosta and Macon is going to be a mess.

[tolakram]

[xironman]

The dropsonde hit with wind at 33kts I believe. The mesos seem to be jerking the eye around so the can't get a good hit.

[USTropics]

The center is now ~110 miles SSW of Panama City Beach, with a slight increase in speed to 13 mph. It's increasingly likely landfall will be somewhere between Panama City Beach and Port Saint Joe in roughly 9-11 hours.

[KWT]

Should be noted that the NW eyewall is now also containing major hurricane force winds...

Ps, dropsonde of 940mbs with 33kts backs up the plane extrap of around 937mbs.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1049936538740695040

[hurricaneCW]

So I guess a lot of people have decided to ride this one out from all the articles I've read.

I think that's due to a combination of media backlash after the Florence hype and ironically a lack of coverage on Michael. The results may unfortunately be devastating.

Only about 10-12 hrs till landfall now.

[KWT]

So I guess a lot of people have decided to ride this one out from all the articles I've read.

I think that's due to a combination of media backlash after the Florence hype and ironically a lack of coverage on Michael. The results may unfortunately be devastating.

Only about 10-12 hrs till landfall now.

This is basically coming in at a similar level to Charley. As you say I think the factors you mentioned plus the fact this area has had nothing even close to this for generations is leading unfortunately to complancy.

[southerngale]

Not sure why anyone thought it would weaken with all the reliable intensity guidance showing the opposite. The conditions are not October like out there, it's moving fairly quickly, and the landfall location has a lot of deep water just offshore.

I'm guessing because people don't remember storms like Humberto, Harvey, etc. that strengthened before landfall, particularly if they had no effect on them. They remember the ones they evacuated for (or maybe didn't) and then weakened or turned and were only an inconvenience to them. The phrase "better safe than sorry" seems to escape many.

[cjrciadt]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 OCT 2018 Time : 083038 UTC
Lat : 28:19:11 N Lon : 86:33:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 911.7mb/143.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : +14.2C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 127nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : GOES16
Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.4 degrees