ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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southerngale
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2781 Postby southerngale » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:32 am

PTPatrick wrote:Yes from a scale of damage standpoint if you have to have a at 4 or 5 strike anywhere this is one of the few spots where a storm can thread the needle without hitting a major population center. Gut feeling is Panama City Proper stays on the western eyewall, but they will certainly have damage. Gulf, liberty and Calhoun stand to take most of the right front quadrant...some of the least populated counties in the state save for Glades and a couple others around the big bend. Again, that’s no consolation to the folks that do live there. But if Leon or escambia county was about to be raked by a high end cat 4 eye wall there would be mass destruction

I mean it’s location location location...had Harvey landed a few miles south the story would much different that rockports destruction followed by a Houston flood as corpus would have been a complete mess.

With Harvey, where it landfalled was not where most of the damage occurred. And it was far from just a Houston flood. Further east, in extreme Southeast Texas, communities were literally wiped out and the flooding was catastrophic. Thousands of us lost everything, including myself. I'm just west of Beaumont.
This is a different beast. I just pray everyone in the path of Michael heeded the warnings, but social media postings have left me fearful for their lives.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2782 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:32 am

Little by little is making that right turn, starting to point towards Panama City.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2783 Postby meriland29 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:32 am

Wonder if the new NHC update will uptick the current mph.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2784 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:33 am

NOAA at 7:20am EDT:
935mb, 21 knots of surface wind


UZNT13 KWBC 101128
XXAA 60118 99288 70864 08186 99935 26806 27021 00/// ///// /////
92095 26404 28019 85841 22606 28017 88999 77999
31313 09608 81116
61616 NOAA2 1414A MICHAEL OB 16
62626 CENTER MBL WND 28519 AEV 33668 DLM WND 28518 934751 WL150 2
8019 084 REL 2882N08637W 111643 SPG 2882N08635W 111935 =
XXBB 60118 99288 70864 08186 00935 26806 11850 22606 22751 20638
21212 00935 27021 11914 28519 22850 28017 33751 30013
31313 09608 81116
61616 NOAA2 1414A MICHAEL OB 16
62626 CENTER MBL WND 28519 AEV 33668 DLM WND 28518 934751 WL150 2
8019 084 REL 2882N08637W 111643 SPG 2882N08635W 111935 =
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2785 Postby karenfromheaven » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:34 am

BlueWater36 wrote:Can anyone recommend a way to find live storm surge measurements?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Here's a tide station in PCB:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stati ... id=8729210
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2786 Postby cjrciadt » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:35 am

dukeblue219 wrote:NOAA plane just dropped in the Eastern eyewall... Mean wind in lowest 500m was 135kt and surface was 103kt. Peak 153kt aloft... Every pass continues to show strengthening.
:sick:
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2787 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:35 am

You can see it made the turn on ther 1 min sat loops. Every time the eye appears to open up Michael seems to get stronger.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-10-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2788 Postby tiger_deF » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:35 am

How many more hours of strengthening does it have before land interaction starts to weaken Micheal?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2789 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:37 am

Will Michael become the 4th landfalling CAT5 in mainland US? I’d say chances are increasing.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2790 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:37 am

tiger_deF wrote:How many more hours of strengthening does it have before land interaction starts to weaken Micheal?


You mean landfall? I think 2 to 4PM, not really sure we know exact time though.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2791 Postby Nimbus » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:38 am

AlabamaDave wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
AlabamaDave wrote:Such a horrible situation. The best we can hope for is landfall east of Panama City so that the most populated areas don't take the full blow of the core winds. Thankfully it stays far enough west of Tallahassee to keep them from experiencing the worst case for that area.


This is not accurate. Tallahassee will be on the cyclone's right front quadrant when landfall occurs. The right front quadrant is the strongest and worst side of the storm other than the actual eyewall itself.



Tallahassee will see very damaging winds over hurricane force gusts and possible tornadoes, along with heavy rain squalls upon Michael's approach..As a matter of fact, they may see widespread tree damage and power outages worst than what Hermine did to them.a couple of years ago.


Yes, that's horrible, but I'm hoping it stays far enough west to keep Tallahassee out of the very worst winds.


Tallahassee will be within 35 miles of the eye on the worst side of the storm per current forecast.
Really too close to call, and could get worse since the storm is not moving linearly.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2792 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:39 am

The latest Recon confirms a closed eyewall!! This is even more bad news as this really signals that Michael can strengthen a bit more before landfall.

I think 920s mb readings are probably likely and Michael has a very fecent shot of attaining Cat 5. :)
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2793 Postby hurricaneCW » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:39 am

One of the most stunning landfalling storms that I've seen in the Atlantic.

I thought a Cat 5 seemed like a laughable possibility but there's probably a 10% chance that it happens. Feel peak may be 150mph.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2794 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:40 am

The latest VDM from the AF plane did not include the NE pass. Here is the chart showing a clean 125 kt surface wind measurement.

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2795 Postby funster » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:40 am

If it hits close to Apalachicola it might come in sooner. NHC had it moving at 13 mph with 4 am CDT update.

Edit: - or maybe it would not make much difference. would require a ruler and math. too early for that and no coffee yet.
Last edited by funster on Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2796 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:40 am

tiger_deF wrote:How many more hours of strengthening does it have before land interaction starts to weaken Micheal?


Pretty much upto landfall, it's dropped 11mbs in the space of about 3hrs, so still could go a little way yet...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2797 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:42 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2798 Postby NDG » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:42 am

Dropsonde in the eastern eyewall from the NOAA Recon shows 158 mph winds just 570 feet above the surface!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2799 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:43 am

NOAA latest VDM
000
URNT12 KWBC 101138
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/11:16:36Z
B. 28.83 deg N 086.36 deg W
C. NA
D. 935 mb
E. 270 deg 21 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C16
H. 109 kt
I. 065 deg 12 nm 11:13:33Z
J. 168 deg 136 kt
K. 072 deg 17 nm 11:12:17Z
L. 104 kt
M. 260 deg 8 nm 11:19:00Z
N. 337 deg 110 kt
O. 261 deg 8 nm 11:19:08Z
P. 15 C / 2450 m
Q. 21 C / 2457 m
R. 17 C / NA
S. 12345 / NA
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 1414A MICHAEL OB 18
MAX FL WIND 136 KT 072 / 17 NM 11:12:17Z
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#2800 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:44 am

With that huge mesovort, closed eye, and dropping eye dewpoint; this thing as a 25 mile wide tornado.
This will level anything in its path.
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