ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

[EquusStorm]

My god. I wake up to a scenario even worse than I had feared. Horrible hopeless feeling

[sponger]

Unbelievable. They say the time to evacuate has passed, but if I was near the coast and stayed, I would be making a run for it. No question. This is a major disaster unfolding for the coast. Points from Panama City to Apalachicola may never be the same. Tyndall AFB elevation is 10 feet so any stronger and we are talking going completely under water.

[USTropics]

The center of Michael is now ~74 miles slightly SSW of Panama City Beach:

[RL3AO]

Looks like were about to see a cat 4 hit the FL Panhandle. Crazy.

[dukeblue219]

Since we're seeing the first visible shots this AM I'll share this from Wikipedia for comparison. Camille on the left, Katrina on the right

[northjaxpro]

It looks like on its current header, landfall will be between Panama City and Mexico.Beach this afternoon.Landfall looks to between 12 ap.m. and 2 p.m. based on vurrent forward speed. It could be a bit sooner if forward speed increases as well.

[GCANE]

Mesoscale Discussion 1557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Areas affected...FL Big Bend

Concerning...Tornado Watch 406...

Valid 101206Z - 101300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 406 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado risk is likely beginning to move
onshore and will likely focus near the Apalachee Bay coastal areas
during the 8-10am EDT period.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KTLH shows a cluster of
quasi-discrete supercells over Apalachee Bay moving northwest
towards the Wakulla County coast. It is here that the supercell
tornado risk appears focused during the next few hours as this
convection moves ashore. Inputting the supercell motion (150
degrees at 40 kt) yields 240 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KTLH VAD data.
Low-level shear will likely increase further and become more
favorable for low-level mesocyclones and an EF0-EF2 tornado risk
this morning with the persistent/more intense mesocyclones.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1557.html

[KC7NEC]

Many times a hurricane tends to "bounce" slightly one way or another at landfall. Any thoughts on this happening? Best case direction? Worst case?

Not a Official or meteorologist. All opinions and statements are my own. Consult the experts.

[supercane4867]

It looks like on its current header, landfall will be between Panama City and Mexico.Beach this afternoon.Landfall looks to between 12 ap.m. and 2 p.m. based on vurrent forward speed. It could be a bit sooner if forward speed increases as well.

Tyndall AFB or Allanton could be ground zero. If Michael wobbles westward over Panama City we may see scenes like a nuclear bomb went off there.

[Bunkertor]

Will be interesting to see, what this Frankenstein Storm brings to us in about 10 days or so.

[southerngale]

Praying he is wrong...

 https://twitter.com/TODAYshow/status/1049986441542074368

[northjaxpro]

Unbelievable. They say the time to evacuate has passed, but if I was near the coast and stayed, I would be making a run for it. No question. This is a major disaster unfolding for the coast. Points from Panama City to Apalachicola may never be the same. Tyndall AFB elevation is 10 feet so any stronger and we are talking going completely under water.

I have family there and I know the region extremely well. This area will forever be changed after this hurricane. The. devastatlion will be heartbreaking.

[GCANE]

CAPE infeed increasing.
Up to 4000 now!

[Hypercane_Kyle]

In terms of intensity this is going to be the worst hurricane to hit the US since Andrew. 155-160mph looks likely at landfall.

[GCANE]

He is hitting that hot pool of water now.

[HurricaneBelle]

Remember less than a week ago when the consensus was we were going to get a sloppy, right-sided tropical storm out of this?

Those were the days.

[USTropics]

Many times a hurricane tends to "bounce" slightly one way or another at landfall. Any thoughts on this happening? Best case direction? Worst case?

Not a Official or meteorologist. All opinions and statements are my own. Consult the experts.

I would expect some type of 'stair stepping' approach to the coast. We have an extremely intense storm butting up against a ridge that is currently being eroded by the trough axis moving across the CONUS. Motion will not be continuously fluid.

[supercane4867]

The eye is getting better and better on satellite

[NDG]

The good thing is that it looks like the pressure has not dropped since the last pass. Is definitely in the NNE heading now.

120400 2859N 08613W 6969 02565 9331 +169 +116 174020 030 027 000 00