ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[pricetag56]

Pressure started dropping again!!

131330 2912N 08606W 6969 02517 9268 +178 +144 167034 036 035 001 00

She really wants 150 MPH. Just about out of time.

You mean he?

[NotoSans]

Center dropsonde says 930mb. Recon has not been sampling the front quadrant for a while though, so not sure whether winds have continued to increase.

[KWT]

No SFMRs even close to 140kts yet (highest was 123). I doubt it makes Cat 5. I do think it will stay a 4 into landfall, however. I could be wrong. See disclaimer.

We havent seen the NE quad for a little while, I could well buy 130kts there now, though may not have time for cat-5. Still it's utterly bombing for sure ..

[JaxGator]

Dang...this is not looking good at all. Florida (and mainland U.S.) have seen a hurricane this strong since Andrew and Charlie. Pressure is still dropping like a rock. The only thing we can do now is pray for areas being hit, the people still trying to leave and the ones who've made the unfortunately made the decision of staying (based on reports I've been reading). It seems in my amateur opinion, but radar and satellite seem to indicate a more pronounced east jog at the end of the loop. Panama City/beach will still get the eyewall though. Recon has showed the turn starting to take place as well.

[NDG]

Center dropsonde says 930mb. Recon has not been sampling the front quadrant for a while though, so not sure whether winds have continued to increase.

Dropsonde is 928mb.

Edit: Sorry, it actually shows 932mb

[supercane4867]

No SFMRs even close to 140kts yet (highest was 123). I doubt it makes Cat 5. I do think it will stay a 4 into landfall, however. I could be wrong. See disclaimer.

With that pressure dropping rate it will be a matter of time that recon finds stronger winds. I’m thinking 130kt/925mb at landfall

[dukeblue219]

I'm not sold on that 926.8 raw pressure given the dropsonde numbers from both planes. Curious what they'll put in the vortex message.

A big thanks to the USAF crew that's been flying since 1130pm edt and making pass after pass this morning. This storm is powerful but exceptionally well recon'd.

[Texashawk]

Really says something that TWC is getting out. Does anyone remember the last time they evacuated a field broadcast well before landfall?

Scary stuff.

[RL3AO]

A new AF flight is about to make its first center pass. We'll see what it gets for a pressure.

[Hurricane Andrew]

No SFMRs even close to 140kts yet (highest was 123). I doubt it makes Cat 5. I do think it will stay a 4 into landfall, however. I could be wrong. See disclaimer.

We havent seen the NE quad for a little while, I could well buy 130kts there now, though may not have time for cat-5. Still it's utterly bombing for sure ..

AF306 was just in the N/NE, peak non flagged at ~110.

[NDG]

I'm not sold on that 926.8 raw pressure given the dropsonde numbers from both planes. Curious what they'll put in the vortex message.

A big thanks to the USAF crew that's been flying since 1130pm edt and making pass after pass this morning. This storm is powerful but exceptionally well recon'd.

The extrap pressure was way off, dropsonde shows 932mb

[northjaxpro]

Pressure now down to 927 mb. Just Incredible! Sadly, I think Michael has just enough time to reach Cat 5 intensity before landfall.. Hope I am wrong, but I fear that will not be the case.

[p1nheadlarry]

Pressure seems to be leveling off at least for now. That's good news

Just quoting this for the fun (but it's not fun)

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/MikeTheiss/status/1050015874680348672

[NDG]

Here's the dropsonde, extrap pressure was way off.

[SconnieCane]

Off KEVX on Radarscope it looks like there *might* be signs of an outer eyewall to the SW/S side, however if it is don't believe it will have enough time to choke off the inner eyewall enough to induce meaningful weakening prior to landfall.

[sponger]

Regardless of whether the winds can catch up to the pressure, a strengthening storm always delivers a more powerful punch and it appears this one may strengthen all the way to landfall. Somebody is going to experience a gust in the 160's. I know they will wish they left when they do.

[cycloneye]

Pressure now down to 927 mb. Just Incredible! Sadly, I think Michael has just enough time to reach Cat 5 intensity before landfall.. Hope I am wrong, but I fear that will not be the case.

Even if it stays as a strong 4,the catastrofic effects will endure that area,same as we here in Puerto Rico went thru with Maria.

[eolian]

https://i.imgur.com/5hVhHCR.jpg

Rank amateur but very interested in learning more here - could someone take a moment for a simple explanation of the two blobs that look like higher cloud tops to the east of and about parallel to the eye portend, if anything?

They are called “Hot Towers” only seen in very intense hurricanes.

[KWT]

Here's the dropsonde, extrap pressure was way off.

https://i.imgur.com/jUTjdyH.png

It should be noted with such a tight pressure gradient it's quite possible the dropsonde missed the lowest zone, bit like needle in a haystack, especially given the circulation.