ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3001 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:59 am

AF301 is about to do a SW-NE pass
Last edited by supercane4867 on Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

StormPyrate
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 279
Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:41 pm
Location: Clearwater, FL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3002 Postby StormPyrate » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:00 am

Local news just reported 70mph gust on the St George Island Bridge
0 likes   
St Petersburg Florida

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145452
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3003 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:01 am

Sad to say but eye looks perfect.

Image
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - . - Discussion

#3004 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:01 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Live streaming currently in Port St Joe.

Deciding on if we go back to Panama city or stay here. Track looks like it will be between the 2 places. Waiting a little longer to make a decision.

Currently winds gusting 60 mph ish

@HurricaneMichaelC4

Facebook page


Aric, I would recommend stayiing in Port St. Joe. I am thinking the right front quad of Michael will come in between downtown Panama City and Apalachicola. I am thinking Mexico Beach as the landfall point.

Whatever you decide, be safe out there!! I admire your bravery chasing this monster. I love doing this business, but I have yet to chase these monsters in the field.
2 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

Abdullah
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 379
Joined: Sat Sep 08, 2018 4:28 pm
Location: Miramar, FL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3005 Postby Abdullah » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:02 am

First landfalling Category 5 since Andrew
0 likes   

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3006 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:02 am

supercane4867 wrote:AF301 is about to do a SW-NE pass


Maybe one of the last good passes through the NE quad before it gets too close to land.

Wonder what we will find, definitely a solid cat-4 at the moment, whole eyewall is well into the 3/4 range.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
ouragans
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 490
Age: 53
Joined: Sun Jun 12, 2011 12:09 pm
Location: Abymes, Guadeloupe F.W.I
Contact:

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3007 Postby ouragans » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:02 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Live streaming currently in Port St Joe.

Deciding on if we go back to Panama city or stay here. Track looks like it will be between the 2 places. Waiting a little longer to make a decision.

Currently winds gusting 60 mph ish

@HurricaneMichaelC4

Facebook page

I think you will have it. Track slowly incurving to 10°. Be safe
0 likes   
Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.

David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W

craptacular
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 581
Joined: Wed Aug 02, 2006 9:17 pm
Location: The Mad City, WI

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3008 Postby craptacular » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:02 am

supercane4867 wrote:144kt FL in the SE eyewall easily put it at 130kt intensity. They may find 130kt+ surface wind in NE eyewall


Also had 122kt (140mph) unflagged SFMR in that SE quad. Yikes!
Last edited by craptacular on Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:04 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3009 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:02 am

Cloud temps in the NE eyewall are approaching -80C on IR again...
0 likes   

norva13x
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 102
Joined: Fri Sep 01, 2017 10:41 am

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3010 Postby norva13x » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:03 am

Abdullah wrote:First landfalling Category 5 since Andrew


I doubt it will crack 5, possible, but running out of time.
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11500
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3011 Postby GCANE » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:03 am

Gums wrote:Salute!

Which TWC crew bugging out?

The PC folks have three good ways out that will likely not be flooded for a while.

Pt St Joe has zilch, as 98 heads to PC then 331 north and so forth, but the road north to Dead Lakes and such is low!

Guess it was the young lady at Pt St Joe

Gums sends...

0900 report from Niceville, 30.5 86.5 first feeder band storm about to hit, but looks like basic shower


Stephanie, Bettes, and Cantore
Seeking higher ground.
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3755
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3012 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:03 am

Mike Seidel not doing this hurr i see i not sure he was fire or put work at station after what happen with florence
0 likes   

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3353
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3013 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:03 am

926mb.... I'm just in shock at this point. This is the strongest hurricane to hit the USA since Andrew in terms of MSLP.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

plasticup

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3014 Postby plasticup » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:04 am

Abdullah wrote:First landfalling Category 5 since Andrew

You mean Maria.

edit: EWRC dropped Maria to Cat 4 as she made landfall. I stand corrected.
Last edited by plasticup on Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1620
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3015 Postby sponger » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:05 am

floridasun78 wrote:Mike Seidel not doing this hurr i see i not sure he was fire or put work at station after what happen with florence


What happened at Florence?
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
KWT
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 31415
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 11:02 am
Location: UK!!!

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3016 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:05 am

floridasun78 wrote:Mike Seidel not doing this hurr i see i not sure he was fire or put work at station after what happen with florence


The irony being this time he really would be getting blown off his feet...

Official advisory is 145mph and 931mbs.
4 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3353
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3017 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:05 am

plasticup wrote:
Abdullah wrote:First landfalling Category 5 since Andrew

You mean Maria.


Maria *almost* hit as a 5, was officially a 155mph Cat 4 at landfall.
0 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3018 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:05 am

norva13x wrote:
Abdullah wrote:First landfalling Category 5 since Andrew


I doubt it will crack 5, possible, but running out of time.

It may have time just enough to make it to 140kt
0 likes   

plasticup

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3019 Postby plasticup » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:05 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:926mb.... I'm just in shock at this point. This is the strongest hurricane to hit the USA since Andrew in terms of MSLP.

Wasn't Maria 908mb?
0 likes   

User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3020 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:06 am

plasticup wrote:
Abdullah wrote:First landfalling Category 5 since Andrew

You mean Maria.

With respect to US landfalling cat5s, he's correct. Maria was at 155mph (cat4) when it made landfall in PR.
1 likes   


Return to “2018”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests