ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3261 Postby wxman57 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:39 am

I'm measuring a 1-hr movement toward 041 deg at 15 kts. That puts the center on the coast over Tyndall AFB south of East Bay around 12:30 CDT.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3262 Postby KWT » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:39 am

plasticup wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Is Michael now going to hit as a CAT 5 storm?

Doubtful. She doesn't have much time left. 90 minutes, tops.


To be fair it'd dropped 5mbs in less time then that!

Don't think it will quite make it but effectively there isn't all that much difference from 150/155 and 160 now.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3263 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:39 am

NAM i see you... :eek: wow just horrible to watch this unfold what a beast of storm my thoughts are with people in the path.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3264 Postby Sciencerocks » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:40 am

I think it is pulling an andrew.

The eye wall is starting to look like it so i'd expect during the final 1-2 hours that recon could find it to be a cat5. Surface pressure is low enough to suggest that the winds could catch up to it...


If not then it will be very close.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3265 Postby michelinj » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:40 am

Recon plane just turned round so looks like it’ll do another SE-NW pass.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3266 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:40 am

Right on the cusp of Cat 5. Completely speechless!
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3267 Postby funster » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:41 am

Nuke plant near the path taken precautions... Farley Nuke plant. Should end up west side of Michael. Not sure if there are others around the area.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-stor ... SKCN1MK1ZZ
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3268 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:41 am

RL3AO wrote:Looks like the mesovorticies are disappearing. Eye is becoming more circular on radar. Will probably see further pressure drops. Sub-920 very possible.


I think so too. Post storm analysis may very well find Cat 5 evidence. Depending on damage in Panama City and Apalachicola, this may be the Andrew of the current generation.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3270 Postby Dadlife » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:41 am

Hey guys, new to the website. Have lurked for a long time. Former panhandle resident here, now in PNW. I went through Opal, Erin, Ivan, Dennis and more. one thing i am concerned about and not really seeing mentioned much if at all is the buoy marker reports failing. When this happened with Ivan's landfall, it was later surmised that the failed buoys were a result of a set of rogue/monster waves that detached the markers by sheer force. Am i understanding that there are 5 markers not responding in a cluster now?

Does anyone else remember this from Hurricane Ivan? That wave set I believe was a cap of 80-100 ft. it ended up pushing a 30 foot wall of water far in to escambia bay once it pushed over the barrier islands, and caused the escambia bay bridge to dislodge/tear away/disappear in large segments. I'm sure many of you remember the photo that went viral nationally of the big rig hanging off the bridge as they discovered the missing pieces of bridge appear.

I'm really concerned that this hasn't been looked in to more/reported on more/ pushed aside as inconsequential data.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3271 Postby StormPyrate » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:41 am

plasticup wrote:
Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process.


Do we owe that local met an apology?!??

I think the guy is busy we should be ok
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3272 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:41 am

I believe they will get in two more passes before landfall. We are inside of 90 minutes to that.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3273 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:41 am

Are any board members in Steinhatchee, FL ? We are heading up to Steinhatchee if we can get in, or else Suwanee, FL on Saturday morning to bring in relief and recovery supplies. A caravan of us. Took 4 tons to SC after Flo. Trying to get to surge impacted areas that likely wouldn't see much help from red cross or fema for a while. Driving up from Pinellas County. Seeking local contacts to facilitate a disbursement site in an impacted neighborhood.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3274 Postby caneman » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:42 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm measuring a 1-hr movement toward 041 deg at 15 kts. That puts the center on the coast over Tyndall AFB south of East Bay around 12:30 CDT.


Looks like Port St. Joe to me. Recent turn N.E. or between there and Mexico Beach
Last edited by caneman on Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3275 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:42 am

tolakram wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
TexWx wrote:Watching Adair now.

That surge has to come over that road, right?


I'm sure it's been posted but do you have a link for his live feed? Also, has anyone considered creating a sub-thread for any web-cams, live feeds, chasers, etc? I know we all offer up links here in the discussion thread but when it gets crazy busy with so many posts, just thought it might be worth making more quickly available to reference


SAVE THIS LINK :)

https://livestormchasing.com/map

Click on the map to find the storm chaser you want to watch.


Brett Adair is right next our office on Marina Dr in Port St Joe. It starting to get real. Literally 100 yards from it. The Penninsula protects that area a bit from surge, will see though....They are at the Marina seawall
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3276 Postby tolakram » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:43 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3277 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:43 am

I wouldn't be surprised if Michael makes it to Cat 5. It's basically already there and it has until ~1:30pm EDT before landfall. It's strengthened more in less time than that. Radar presentation is incredible; that eyewall is terrifying.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion: Tropical Cyclone Update= 150 mph 923 mbs

#3278 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:44 am

Michael has one of the best ever satellite presentation for a TC in this part of the world. The only hurricane had a more impressive appearence in the GOM is Rita

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3279 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:44 am

tolakram wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
TexWx wrote:Watching Adair now.

That surge has to come over that road, right?


I'm sure it's been posted but do you have a link for his live feed? Also, has anyone considered creating a sub-thread for any web-cams, live feeds, chasers, etc? I know we all offer up links here in the discussion thread but when it gets crazy busy with so many posts, just thought it might be worth making more quickly available to reference


SAVE THIS LINK :)

https://livestormchasing.com/map

Click on the map to find the storm chaser you want to watch.


Keeps coming back "bad gateway"???
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#3280 Postby ozonepete » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:44 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Is Michael now going to hit as a CAT 5 storm?


Probably doesn't have time but at this intensity the end result between 150mph and minimal Cat 5 is negligible. Damage will be equally bad.


Damage will be catastrophic. Sad how many people didn't leave.
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