ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Looks like it will wobble into area between Port St. Joe and Mexico Beach. Many strong TCs jog left or right as they come ashore. Michael may do a leftward jog as it makes landfall since that would get it back on its general ne or nne heading.

[KWT]

I'm measuring a 1-hr movement toward 041 deg at 15 kts. That puts the center on the coast over Tyndall AFB south of East Bay around 12:30 CDT.

Looks like Port St. Joe to me. Recent turn N.E. or between there and Mexico Beach

10am-11am toward 032 deg at 16 kts. About 10 deg left of previous 1-hr. Recon says 120-125kt winds. Not a cat 5. Still aiming for Tyndall.

Going to put Panama into the 115kts that to he NW quad had, going to be a rough few hours for them.

[dukeblue219]

This might be the last pass for this storm, entering NE quadrant right now. They'll have to keep it tight to make another before landfall.

[NDG]

According to the recon 100 mph winds are right on the coast now.

[Rail Dawg]

Adair has relo'd to Port ST Joe, I believe thanks to our Rail Dawg. Hospital there is 25 feet above sea level. At the marina for now until surge moves in.

Am glad to hear Adair relocated.

I won’t judge a fellow chaser because we all make our own decisions.

I’m not relocating because Big Truck is my only method of supply. I can’t afford to lose it as I would then be out of the survival gear.

Adair getting to a hospital is good. I would do that except there’s no parking garage there to protect the truck.

Good luck Adair! We’re with you in spirit. Starting to really blow here in Panama City Beach.

[KWT]

This might be the last pass for this storm, entering NE quadrant right now. They'll have to keep it tight to make another before landfall.

They will probably do a SW-SE pass through the eye until it makes landfall.

[rhwxgeek]

I have to say the GOES-16 is the best use of tax dollars in a long time, looking at the high-res images you can see so much detail. This technology will be a boon for researchers.

*Side note* Interesting to watch the Bay County EOC press conference and see them already talking about people wanting to return. I know it has to be difficult to watch from afar after evacuating but my goodness this storm is still strengthening and hasn't made landfall yet.

[caneman]

I'm measuring a 1-hr movement toward 041 deg at 15 kts. That puts the center on the coast over Tyndall AFB south of East Bay around 12:30 CDT.

Looks like Port St. Joe to me. Recent turn N.E. or between there and Mexico Beach

10am-11am toward 032 deg at 16 kts. About 10 deg left of previous 1-hr. Recon says 120-125kt winds. Not a cat 5. Still aiming for Tyndall.

Bet you a beer on it. Between Mexico beach and Port St. Joe

[tolakram]

In fairness, it is common to see storms weaken as they get close to the coast and for a variety of reasons.

I'm not sure that''s applicable these days. We have much better modelling so to think something will weaken when the most reliable models say otherwise is questionable at best. In all other modern cases the models showed steady to weakening at landfall. With Michael every single one showed strengthening until landfall. To not believe that data is something I hope doesn't happen again. I'm speaking of those of us who like to track storms, not the general public.

[supercane4867]

Landfall imminent

[plasticup]

https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/1050049977744003072

This guy legitimately might die today. Cool video, but I wonder whether it's worth it.

[KWT]

Adair has relo'd to Port ST Joe, I believe thanks to our Rail Dawg. Hospital there is 25 feet above sea level. At the marina for now until surge moves in.

Am glad to hear Adair relocated.

I won’t judge a fellow chaser because we all make our own decisions.

I’m not relocating because Big Truck is my only method of supply. I can’t afford to lose it as I would then be out of the survival gear.

Adair getting to a hospital is good. I would do that except there’s no parking garage there to protect the truck.

Good luck Adair! We’re with you in spirit. Starting to really blow here in Panama City Beach.

Probably hurricane force gusts coming ng your way in the next 15 minutes from the looks of things.

[Sanibel]

It looked like it wrapped dry air last night but it mixed it right out and burst a deep core...I would guess the front wasn't plunging and the combination of a Loop Current track and Tropical regime accompanying the system was responsible...

Winds picking up substantially at Adair location...

[Ntxw]

Coming in

[baitism]

I hope Michael wobbles back east or Panama City is going to get the N/NW eyewall.

[tolakram]

[KWT]

I hope Michael wobbles back east or Panama City is going to get the N/NW eyewall.

Unfortunately the NW quad is almost as strong, last pass was a solid 115kts in the eyewall...

[smithtim]

WE ARE LIVE NOW IN PORT ST. JOE WINDS ARE GETTING VERY STRONG HIGH END TROPICAL STORM DEFINITELY HURRICANE GUSTS! WE ARE ON FB LIVE @HurricaneMichaelC4

Thanks for sharing and will be watching... be careful brah, this is very Andrewish - shoot me a text or something tomorrow let me know all OK. I'll be heading up volunteer relief in few days, tenativley Ft Walton?

[xironman]

Landfall imminent

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a8737a31bf3c058c7e8e483c168541eabc19c11b0b3dca897e064a799a75dee.gif

They might get lucky if that meso swings around before hit PC

[supercane4867]

Recon still not updating. Data delays?