ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

In fairness, it is common to see storms weaken as they get close to the coast and for a variety of reasons.

I'm not sure that''s applicable these days. We have much better modelling so to think something will weaken when the most reliable models say otherwise is questionable at best. In all other modern cases the models showed steady to weakening at landfall. With Michael every single one showed strengthening until landfall. To not believe that data is something I hope doesn't happen again. I'm speaking of those of us who like to track storms, not the general public.

Been tracking them for over 30 years. I've seen it both ways. Modeling for intensity this time was good but in many cases it's still a crap shoot and many times model intensity is al over the board

[plasticup]

Recon still not updating. Data delays?

Only 20 minutes. It happens.

[tolakram]

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20181010144528&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=1&x=893.5&y=1010

[Dadlife]

That recent sat img is absolutely beautiful and horrifying. It's so tightly wound.

[dhweather]

Jeff Pitrowski has been driving between Mexico City and Tyndall AFB. He's reported on his periscope session:

Saw two tornadoes
Storm surge coming in rapidly at Mexico City, waves 15-20 feet crashing into buildings
Handheld anemometer reported 100-110 just north of Tyndall AFB

[RL3AO]

Looks like the pressure has come down another mb or so. Nothing to stop a strong cat 4 from hitting in the next couple hours. It will be the first one on record in the FL Panhandle.

[KWT]

Going to need a big wobbles for Panama City to aviod eyewall now, a slight left wobble puts the eye through Panama.

[sponger]

https://twitter.com/MarcWeinbergWX/status/1050049977744003072

This guy legitimately might die today. Cool video, but I wonder whether it's worth it.

Scroll down to see the guy going by on a Jon boat!

[tolakram]

In fairness, it is common to see storms weaken as they get close to the coast and for a variety of reasons.

I'm not sure that''s applicable these days. We have much better modelling so to think something will weaken when the most reliable models say otherwise is questionable at best. In all other modern cases the models showed steady to weakening at landfall. With Michael every single one showed strengthening until landfall. To not believe that data is something I hope doesn't happen again. I'm speaking of those of us who like to track storms, not the general public.

Been tracking them for over 30 years. I've seen it both ways. Modeling for intensity this time was good but in many cases it's still a crap shoot and many times model intensity is al over the board

So you are comparing model performance what, 15 years ago, to today? That's the point I'm trying to make.

[Texas Snowman]

Coming in

https://images2.imgbox.com/ae/81/i2y9sW6x_o.gif

Yup. Forecasting is all but over. Severe destruction is about to begin.

I wasn’t sure if I’d see a storm of this magnitude again in my lifetime (Dhweather’s proverbial “Cat 5 in the Gulf!”).

But it’s knocking on the front door of some of my favorite beaches in the world.

[supercane4867]

I hope there's time to do another NW-SE pass just before landfall

[caneman]

Looks like Port St. Joe to me. Recent turn N.E. or between there and Mexico Beach

10am-11am toward 032 deg at 16 kts. About 10 deg left of previous 1-hr. Recon says 120-125kt winds. Not a cat 5. Still aiming for Tyndall.

Bet you a beer on it. Between Mexico beach and Port St. Joe

Got a feeling I'm going to owe you a beer. For awhile it looked it was tracking there but not now

[plasticup]

155700 2944N 08542W 6958 02520 9262 +172 +144 139072 095 113 005 03
155730 2943N 08543W 6973 02472 9212 +198 +115 132047 062 071 003 00
155800 2941N 08544W 6968 02449 9197 +188 +121 120026 038 041 002 00
155830 2940N 08545W 6965 02444 9187 +180 +135 115011 021 026 002 03
155900 2938N 08546W 6970 02429 9183 +176 +135 270009 018 027 001 00
155930 2936N 08547W 6973 02433 9212 +153 +144 285038 045 042 001 00
160000 2935N 08547W 6962 02474 9241 +148 +138 278062 068 056 003 03
160030 2933N 08548W 6964 02503 9261 +161 +146 275078 084 076 001 00
160100 2933N 08549W 6969 02520 9297 +153 +150 285101 113 101 014 00
160130 2932N 08550W 6973 02563 9371 +147 +147 294131 137 120 025 00
160200 2931N 08551W 6978 02611 9416 +141 +133 290132 137 121 022 00
160230 2931N 08552W 6957 02678 9467 +138 +131 293131 135 115 010 00
160300 2930N 08553W 6965 02712 9507 +139 +119 293126 129 104 004 00


121 knot SFMR with 918.3 mb extrapolated

hooooooooooooooly

[ronjon]

Tide now 7.2 ft above normal level at Apalachicola and rising.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8728690

[KC7NEC]

Even CNN is full coverage now.

Not a Official or meteorologist. All opinions and statements are my own. Consult the experts.

[Dadlife]

918.3?! is insane! I thought 928 / 923 was crazy to live through back then. 918 is is magnitudes different.

[rhwxgeek]

Over 164k under Extreme Wind Warning!

[KWT]

Looks like the pressure has come down another mb or so. Nothing to stop a strong cat 4 from hitting in the next couple hours. It will be the first one on record in the FL Panhandle.

Yep so probably pressure around 922mbs, we will see what the dropsonde shows but regardless, a really exceptional hurricane...and historic.

[caneman]

I'm not sure that''s applicable these days. We have much better modelling so to think something will weaken when the most reliable models say otherwise is questionable at best. In all other modern cases the models showed steady to weakening at landfall. With Michael every single one showed strengthening until landfall. To not believe that data is something I hope doesn't happen again. I'm speaking of those of us who like to track storms, not the general public.

Been tracking them for over 30 years. I've seen it both ways. Modeling for intensity this time was good but in many cases it's still a crap shoot and many times model intensity is al over the board

So you are comparing model performance what, 15 years ago, to today? That's the point I'm trying to make.

Look I'm not looking to get in an argument with you. It's my opinion that model intensity to this date is still a crap shoot. And that is pretty factual. As far as track, I believe the NHC is now near 100% at 72 hours out. Last I checked opinions are ok

[cycloneye]

He is brave.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1050056777465823240