ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rhwxgeek]

Anyone hearing any reports of surge.

 https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/1050062500090269696

[EquusStorm]

Going to be honest... if people in the heart of a landfalling major near the beach are fully able to and capable of, but refuse to for literally whatever reason (obvious exceptions being staying in a reinforced structure outside of the surge zone) whatever happens is entirely on them. Sad, but you can only plead with people so much if they insist on potentially committing suicide by staying. We are going to have a death toll with this one, without a doubt.

[supercane4867]

If you ever wonder how Camille would look like on modern satellite, Michael tells you the story.

[Texas Snowman]

@MikeWDross — Latest corrected Dropsonde is 919 mb. This will be one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit. This is likely a CAT5

[tolakram]

My fault...I made a bad prediction last night of leveling off at 125-130...I accept crow...I wasn't paying attention to what the storm was doing or prevailing conditions...

Sorry Sanibel, I did not intend for it to sound as angry as it did. No one expected near cat 5, I expected mid cat 3.

[caneman]

So you are comparing model performance what, 15 years ago, to today? That's the point I'm trying to make.

Look I'm not looking to get in an argument with you. It's my opinion that model intensity to this date is still a crap shoot. And that is pretty factual. As far as track, I believe the NHC is now near 100% at 72 hours out. Last I checked opinions are ok

I'm giving you my opinion. The facts can be looked up in the NHC verification reports. My criticism was about those posters who last night claimed Michael would weaken because they always do. In my opinion that kind of mumbo jumbo non scientific conclusion is very dangerous. There is a reason storms weaken. What is that reason and does it exist today? Do we care to learn anything from past storms?

It was surprising to me that it didnt weaken some, it was surprising that it strengthened so much. It was surprising how many models agreed on its intensification but only in the end. There are still many reasons for weakening that are unknown and we've now seen major intensification during what was supposed to be wind shear. It admittedly dumbfounded the NHC and will be case study for many years to come. My only point is that intensification models still struggle and seem to be the hardest to predict. Maybe they're getting better but it will take time for people to see that. It took me years to realize how good models had gotten with landfall projection. Now when one gets inside of 72 hours, in my mind it's a near lock. We are no where near there with model intensity. Maybe we are saying the same thing but I'd bet my last dollar that most people would bet it would have weakened vs. What is did based on history.

[Ken711]

Prayers to those in the Panhandle area when this landfalls and moves inland.

[wxman57]

Jeff Piotrowski is live: https://www.pscp.tv/w/1YpJkLweZjPxj?q=jeff+piortrowski

This guy is a character. He's screaming about 100 mph winds hitting him and they look more like 30-35 mph at that time. I can't take any more of him.

[rhwxgeek]

Doppler velocities are showing 140 plus over Mexico Beach.

[BlueWater36]

What is the current forward movement speed and what's the best way to look up this info?


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[FireRat]

I am glued to the tv watching The Weather Channel and CNN now as Michael is approaching landfall...all I gotta say is that this hurricane is approaching Cat 5, his satellite presentation is perfecting as it nears the coast and is looking more and more like category 5. The pressure of 918 mb further supports this, Mike is the October monster we all feared for years on this forum!!

If the storm isn't tagged as a Cat 5, I have a feeling it might get bumped up in reanalysis like Andrew did. This is my own opinion btw, but I think many of you feel the same way. Whether its high end C4 or low C5...this will be an epic catastrophe for this area holy cow!

Sure goes to show that sometimes, the worst does happen and it is so important to be prepared for the worst!

[Sanibel]

Tyndall looks about right...If there's a chaser there he's going to get the action and probably the lowest pressure reading...

[otowntiger]

First time poster. I appreciate the information as I have been lurking. I live in Blountstown FL which is going to be just east of the eye wall.

Please let me say again, thanks for the information.

If there is a positive here, most of Michael's center path, once it leaves beach, will be the Apalachicola River and Apalachicola National Forest which is sparsely populated.

Yes, but you are about to experience some extremely strong wind for an inland location. Treat this like a very large tornado headed right for you.

[dukeblue219]

URNT12 KNHC 101626
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142018
A. 10/15:58:50Z
B. 29.65 deg N 085.76 deg W
C. 700 mb 2393 m
D. 922 mb
E. 260 deg 34 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C18
H. 116 kt
I. 047 deg 10 nm 15:56:00Z
J. 139 deg 140 kt
K. 047 deg 10 nm 15:56:00Z
L. 121 kt
M. 216 deg 7 nm 16:02:00Z
N. 293 deg 137 kt
O. 214 deg 6 nm 16:01:30Z
P. 13 C / 3061 m
Q. 20 C / 3043 m
R. 12 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
U. AF301 1514A MICHAEL OB 18
MAX FL WIND 143 KT 130 / 8 NM 15:14:00Z

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1050060029783666690

[rhwxgeek]

Adair moved inland a bit, still in St. Joe, beginning to see larger pieces of metal siding and signs blown out as he drives around. https://livestormchasing.com/map

[WmE]

Dropsonde #11 just splashed in 922mb and 34kts. Supports sub-920....

Wow so pressure at landfall will be 919mbs!!

To note, Hazel came in at 938mbs. .this is light years stronger and I think that would put Michael at no 3 of all time behind 35 and Camille?

You forgot Wilma and Gilbert. Wilma is #1 at 882 mb. , Gilbert 888 mb, Labor Day Hurricane 898 mb and Camille 900.mb. Michael is now#5.

I think that's in terms of US landfall intensity, not overall intensity.

[ronjon]

Stephanie Abrams from TWC standing under powerlines in PCB as power pole arcing across the street. I swear one of these days we're going to see someone killed in these storms.

[GCANE]

[SconnieCane]

NE (RFQ) eyewall looking stronger on radar as in comes in, unfortunately. I wonder if it was just an illusion caused by the KEVX beam shooting through the NW eyewall convection. On IR it looked/continues to look uniformly intense all the way around.