ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

So, what kind of farm did you lose?

[AutoPenalti]

It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

So, what kind of farm did you lose?

https://i.imgur.com/9WhPOxa.png

Not sure why anyone would bet against mother nature to begin with.

[tolakram]

Keep it lighthearted now, I don't want to be mean ... but he totally deserves it.

[tolakram]

Worrisome.

 https://twitter.com/StormVisuals/status/1050127664026140673

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/smithwjhg/status/1050122869106204673

[tolakram]

Lots of damage reports coming in before sunset.

 https://twitter.com/NimbusStorms/status/1050129000021012480

[Cyclenall]

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

So, what kind of farm did you lose?

https://i.imgur.com/9WhPOxa.png

Not sure why anyone would bet against mother nature to begin with.

Yep I lost this time, this was the exception. Though I never said it wouldn't happen just that the odds were very long for it to be a major (or at peak intensity) at LF. One thing I did come across was an ERC was apparently beginning but it didn't do anything in time this time.

[psyclone]

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

So, what kind of farm did you lose?

https://i.imgur.com/9WhPOxa.png

Not sure why anyone would bet against mother nature to begin with.

In fairness, his bet was made based upon the concept that such a bet frequently yields a cashable ticket. And that was most recently validated with Florence's abrupt and unexpected weakening a few weeks before. Frequently doesn't=always and never bet the farm no matter how optimal you believe the odds are. It was a good post and I gave it a "like"...while also giving subsequent posts asking for evidence other than...it always works out this way...a like as well. Cyclenall is a good poster..

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/hosmermatthew/status/1050129473432109060

[robbielyn]

https://twitter.com/smithwjhg/status/1050122869106204673

I used to live there in the middle 80's

[Evil Jeremy]

https://twitter.com/hosmermatthew/status/1050129473432109060

TWC was capturing live footage as the roofing tore apart. One of their mets was reporting just in front of the building.

[Nate-Gillson]

Thank goodness. From Jeff P's wife:

https://twitter.com/TwisterChasers/stat ... 0394157057

[StruThiO]

I agree psyclone. Today has been a historical day, wow!!

[Abdullah]

Just came back. How close was this to Category 5. This had a LOWER PRESSURE THAN ANDREW!

[Cyclenall]

So, what kind of farm did you lose?

https://i.imgur.com/9WhPOxa.png

Not sure why anyone would bet against mother nature to begin with.

In fairness, his bet was made based upon the concept that such a bet frequently yields a cashable ticket. And that was most recently validated with Florence's abrupt and unexpected weakening a few weeks before. Frequently doesn't=always and never bet the farm no matter how optimal you believe the odds are. It was a good post and I gave it a "like"...while also giving subsequent posts asking for evidence other than...it always works out this way...a like as well. Cyclenall is a good poster..

Thank you pscyclone for the nice words . This time the conditions regarding the shear vector position and the lack of continental dry air being worked into the hurricane was perfect but I am quite floored that it's basically a CAT5 making its way in like this. Even more outrageous is its stronger pressure wise at landfall than Andrew, Katrina, Charley, Wilma...

[johngaltfla]

This is the crew that flew the last mission. Kudos to all from Air Force and NOAA that made an amazing work collecting the data.

https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1050103589048344576

That crew earned their pay and free beers from every Florida resident whenever they walk into a bar. Well done AF, well done.

[NDG]

It seems like just yesterday half of this website was complaining when Florence weakened before landfall. For those who enjoy destruction and chaos, it looks like Michael won't disappoint you (hopefully I am wrong).

Given the forward speed and the continued blow ups of convection, a Florence-esque situation seems unlikely to my non-professional eyes.

Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast. They have to be really tight hurricanes (small like Humberto) to peak as they're making LF around that zone. Think how many times a hurricane has peaked or met the NHC's LF intensity on the northern Gulf coast, very few and even less that are expected to be over major status. I don't believe it until its 2 hours away from LF, and despite what Michael is doing right now I'm firmly holding to that "rule of thumb". Michael will be lethal for water like all the rest of them so by no means does this indicate I think he will bust. Everyone should evacuate in Michael's path for sure and he will certainly live up to the hype water wise. I just never believe the LF windspeed intensity when predicted to be over 100 knots, like Florence I couldn't understand the CAT4/5 predictions on that one! I'm waiting for that ERC (Michael's structure may not allow for one before LF though IMO) to occur and postings of the usual cliches "dodged a bullet" and "could've been worse!". You can bet the farm on it.

So, what kind of farm did you lose?

https://i.imgur.com/9WhPOxa.png

Good one! Some people make comments without looking at the evidence & reports available.
Nothing against cycloneall, but there was a lot proof that Michael was going to continue to intensify despite the "windshear maps" and dry air to its west:
1. Continuing Dropsondes sampling the atmosphere indicated that there was no windshear or very little around its circulation for the dry air to get induced into its core.
2. Global Models (excluding the crappy CMC) were persistent in continuing intensification until landfall.
3. Michael was intensifying even faster than what the global models were forecasting.
4. Strong MJO is currently in our side of the world.
5. Very warm SSTs on its track.
6. No cool dry continental surface air on its way to the north.
7. And most important, the NHC forecasters forecasted that it was going to continue to intensify through the night.

[aperson]

One thing I did come across was an ERC was apparently beginning but it didn't do anything in time this time.

I never saw any indication of double wind maxima or a concentric outer eyewall throughout Michael's development. The only inner structural weakness was the eyewall struggling to fully close in the SW quadrant for most of its life. I'm not sure where this discussion about a possible ERC is coming from.

[sbcc]

Just came back. How close was this to Category 5. This had a LOWER PRESSURE THAN ANDREW!

Right on the edge. 155 mph officially.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/a ... .017.shtml

[Texas Snowman]

Though I never said it wouldn't happen just that the odds were very long for it to be a major (or at peak intensity) at LF.

Never said?

“Cyclenall wrote:
Oh Michael will find a way, there is already some "wind shear" in place somewhere ready to do what happens every time a hurricane is moving northwards towards the gulf coast”