2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

WPAC will be quiet for a while until another MJO/favorable conditions makes it's way late month.

[euro6208]

Next 5 names on the list:

Yutu
Toraji
Man-yi
Usagi
Pabuk

Looking forward to Yutu and it might have to wait. I'm thinking it might be one of the biggies this season. Right now unfavorable conditions prevail but with rewarming oceans after the recent intense typhoons.

[euro6208]

[mrbagyo]

that MJO looks pretty strong.
Maybe Last week of October to Early or Mid Nov - we gonna get some action

[euro6208]

Since we are in the down times, i thought i post this. Really interesting!

In a rare display of atmospheric violence, two Category 5 storms simultaneously churned across the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday morning. At 8 pm EDT Monday evening, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center elevated Hurricane Walaka a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds, and just three hours later, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) also put Super Typhoon Kong-Rey at Category 5 strength. Both great storms held on to Category 5 strength through Tuesday morning. As of 11 am EDT Tuesday, both storms had weakened slightly to top-end Category 4 storms with 155 mph winds.

Simultaneous Cat 5s are very rare, and this is the first time in the historical record that Cat 5s have existed simultaneously in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Pacific. According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State and Jasper Deng of Wikipedia, there have been six other instances of simultaneous Category 5 storms, though:

July 17, 2005: Hurricane Emily in the Atlantic, Super Typhoon Haitang in the Northwest Pacific.
October 17-19, 1997: Super Typhoons Ivan and Joan in the Northwest Pacific
January 5-6, 1998: Tropical Cyclones Ron and Susan in the South Pacific
November 27, 1990: Super Typhoons Owen and Page in the Northwest Pacific
August 18, 1965: Super Typhoons Lucy and Mary in the Northwest Pacific
September 11, 1961, three Category 5s simultaneously!: Hurricane Carla in the Atlantic, Super Typhoons Pamela and Nancy in the Northwest Pacific

[euro6208]

MJO looking more potent...

[euro6208]

00Z



06Z

[Hayabusa]

The WPAC is now ready for another extremely intense cat 5, all it needs is for a storm to form between 160E-180 below 10N and tracking below that latitude so that it could take full advantage of those untapped SSTs.

[euro6208]

The WPAC is now ready for another extremely intense cat 5, all it needs is for a storm to form between 160E-180 below 10N and tracking below that latitude so that it could take full advantage of those untapped SSTs.

In the WPAC it's almost a guarantee. Scary.

[euro6208]

GFS continues to show activity between Guam and the dateline. No doubt, Yutu will likely emerge from here.

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

Euro finally showing signs of activity over the pacific ocean?

But ensembles is over SCS

[euro6208]

More favorable conditions arriving sooner.

[euro6208]

A stark contrast to September, October has gotten off to a rather quiet start. The big view of the NW Pacific shows very quiet weather across the region with weak trades across much of Micronesia. North of 10N, though, winds are slightly stronger, 10-20 mph. A few thunderstorms are expected today for the Marianas, but no substantial disturbances in the region are expected for at least the next week.

Keep in mind, we are still only into the 1st half of October and the October/November time frame is usually the most likely for typhoons to affect the Marianas.

[galaxy401]

It's actually quite eerie that the WPAC is completely quiet for a long duration of time. I guess that shows the power of the MJO.

[Hayabusa]

Looks like ensembles are now showing it too

GFS is also showing something but it's beyond 240 hr

[euro6208]

Both EURO and GFS getting more robust on future systems.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1050323104726016000

[Hayabusa]

Last 4 runs
GFS

FV3

[euro6208]

EURO and GFS runs keeps pushing back the next systems. GFS all over the place.